The fifth race in the series is the Sapling Stakes G III.
The Sapling Stakes is an American Grade III Thoroughbred horse race run annually in early September at Monmouth Park in Oceanport, New Jersey. Open to 2-year-olds, it is raced on dirt over a distance of six furlongs for a purse of $150,000. First run in 1883, the New Jersey Legislature passed a law in 1894 that banned parimutuel betting in the state and the track closed its doors. In 1946, the state legislature passed a bill providing for state regulation of horse racing and the Sapling Stakes was revived. In 1952, the race was run in two divisions.
Time record: 1:07.84 - Gilded Time (1992)
Most wins by an owner: 3 - James Cox Brady, Jr. (1949, 1952, 1953
Most wins by a jockey: 3 - Braulio Baeza (1964, 1965, 1968) 3 - Craig Perret (1980, 1982, 1996 3 - Joe Bravo (1997, 2000, 2006)
Most wins by a trainer: 8 - D. Wayne Lukas (1987, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1994, 1995, 1997, 998)
(Wikipedia)
PP's: http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm Pletcher>Sapling
Should be fun to watch.
Pletcher has three goin’ in this one in Repole’s Overanalyze; Tabor, Magnier and Smith’s Drum Roll and Starlight Racing’s Lawn Man. Must be kind of perplexing to be the trainer for three different horses with three different owners in the same race. No doubt the connections are scrutinizing the differences in the works and preparations for each. Pletcher must be part politician.
Overanalyze won his last in a hand ride, brings in the highest last speed rating and two solid 4fl works, gets a jock switch and a different surface. Drum Roll comes in to the Sapling after running a game fourth in the Saratoga Special where he gets the six furlongs in 1:10 flat, brings in one nice work and gets his favored jock. He gets a drop in distance and comes back to a winning surface. If the last didn’t sap his energy, I think the drop in distance helps his chances. Lawn Man also won his first relatively easy on a good surface, comes in with three works, gets a jock switch and a different surface.Tap and Trade won his last in a nice effort at Elp, might be a bit much for him here. Bobcat Jim was impressive in his first at Del but stumbled and lost his jock in his last, works aren’t impressive. Brave Dave gave em’ a good fight in the Sanford, but drifted out badly, shows three solid works, race rating and class rating highest in the field, ranked first by Prime Power, he should be tough here. Askin’ a lot from Keep the Canoli. Coach A.J. was game in his last but that was on the grass; I liked Special Jo in the Sanford but he just couldn't match the early foot nor late drive, last two works are relatively sharp. Lucci The Lion won relatively easy in the last, shows to easy works.
Hmmm . . . Meet: 71% speed bias. Week: 56% speed bias, track is playing relatively fair. Checked the Dosage and the Aptitudinal, don't think either particularly indicative, looks like pace may be the overriding factor in this race. If Brave Dave and Overanalyze lock horns, it sets up for Drum Roll. However, can’t see how any of em’ match the speed figure for Repole’s Overanalyze.
Overanalyze
Drum Roll
Nothin’ like the Derby Trail.
Derby Trail 2013 2YOs: Champagne Stakes G I
Moderators: Roguelet, hpkingjr, WaveMaster, K~2
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Whirlaway
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Brave Dave wins the Sapling Stakes!
Brave Dave stumbled badly at the start and bumped with Coach A.J., showed early speed to set the pace, responded when challenged by Special Jo, turned back that rival and held well under urging.
Gotta be a nice colt to overcome the stumbling bumbling start. Nice three works by the trainer and no doubt had to be a nice ride by the jockey to get him out front and wire the field after that poor start. Good and fine piece of work by both. RPF -14
I had Overanalyze in this one, wasn't even in the race. My second choice was Drum Roll: Drum Roll was bumped at the start, raced four wide on the backstretch, chased the leaders on the turn, weakened and was clear for the show. Maybe the bump at the start compromised his chances . . . Drums just weren't Rollin.
No doubt disappointed and a poor piece handicappin' here. I picked a horse wasn't even in the race and the running line and corollary data indicated Brave Dave was the class of the field likely to wire the race. Can't make those mistakes and expect to win at this game, no excuses. Won't let it happen again.
I'll be keepin' a sharp eye out for Brave Dave and Drum Roll, maybe I'll catch em' next time out.
I'm still Hopeful!
Nothin' like the Derby Trail!
Brave Dave stumbled badly at the start and bumped with Coach A.J., showed early speed to set the pace, responded when challenged by Special Jo, turned back that rival and held well under urging.
Gotta be a nice colt to overcome the stumbling bumbling start. Nice three works by the trainer and no doubt had to be a nice ride by the jockey to get him out front and wire the field after that poor start. Good and fine piece of work by both. RPF -14
I had Overanalyze in this one, wasn't even in the race. My second choice was Drum Roll: Drum Roll was bumped at the start, raced four wide on the backstretch, chased the leaders on the turn, weakened and was clear for the show. Maybe the bump at the start compromised his chances . . . Drums just weren't Rollin.
No doubt disappointed and a poor piece handicappin' here. I picked a horse wasn't even in the race and the running line and corollary data indicated Brave Dave was the class of the field likely to wire the race. Can't make those mistakes and expect to win at this game, no excuses. Won't let it happen again.
I'll be keepin' a sharp eye out for Brave Dave and Drum Roll, maybe I'll catch em' next time out.
I'm still Hopeful!
Nothin' like the Derby Trail!
Restriction of free thought and free speech is the most dangerous of all subversions. - William O. Douglas
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It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
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It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
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Whirlaway
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The sixth race in this series is the Hopeful Stakes G I. Sanford winner Bern Identity runnin’ against three Pletcher charges in Lawn Man, Track Barron winner Shanghai Bobby and Repole’s Overanalyze!
The Hopeful Stakes is an American Thoroughbred horse race run annually at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, New York. Open to two-year-old horses, the Hopeful is the first Grade I stakes for two-year-olds each season and historically has been a showcase for some of the top East Coast horses at that age group. Raced on the dirt over a distance of seven furlongs, the Grade I event offers a purse of $250,000 [$ 300,000].The race is currently part of the Breeders' Cup Challenge series. The winner will automatically qualify for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
Inaugurated in 1903, the first edition was won by Delhi. In 1904, the Hopeful Stakes was won by the filly Tanya who would go on to win one of the American Classic Races the following year. Initially raced at a distance of six furlongs, from 1925 through 1993 it was run at six and a half furlongs and since 1994 at seven furlongs. Currently, the Hopeful Stakes is the first influential prep race leading up to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and since 1925 has been a competition that marks the first time two-year-olds are tested at a distance beyond six furlongs. [Turf?]The name stems from the hope every two-year-old handlers have for their horse's racing future.
Due to the State of New York's legislated ban on parimutuel betting, there was no race in 1911 and 1912. During World War II, the Hopeful Stakes was run at Belmont Park in 1943, 1944, and 1945. Only four horses have ever won all three Saratoga Racecourse events for two-year-olds. Regret (1914), Campfire (1916), Dehere (1993), and City Zip (2000) each swept the Hopeful Stakes, Saratoga Special Stakes, and the Sanford Stakes.
Time record: (at current 7 furlong distance) 1:21.94 - Came Home (2001)
Most wins by an owner: 4 - George D. Widener, Jr. (1928, 1950, 1961, 1966)
Most wins by a jockey: 6 - Jerry D. Bailey (1982, 1983, 1999, 2000, 2003, 2005)
(Wikipedia)
Nice one!
Grade II Sanford winner Bern Identity comes into the Hopeful likely the class of the field, shows three blistering works on the main track, positive jock switch, positive running line, should be tough to beat - no excuses. Vegas No Show comes in off a win at a mile at Delaware, shows three outstanding works but lacks early foot, gets a new surface, new jock, and steps up in class, askin’ a bit much. Pletcher charge Lawn Man comes out of a MSW 80k on a Saratoga surface labeled good, shows three nice works on the main track, the last in 48.3 was a nice one and the race on a good surface bodes well for his stamina, an A.P. Indy type goin’ from a MSW 80k to a G I, hopeful! Shanghai Bobby, another Pletcher charge comes into the Hopeful after winning the 85k Track Barron Stakes, hasn’t raced in two months but shows five relatively sharp works . . . shows a break in works from the tr.t to the main track, generally a negative sign but he comes right back works a soft 4f and a nice 5fl in 1:00.4. Roman has him ranked 3rd best colt in the country with a RPF -31 . . . gotta think Pletcher has been sittin’ tight on this one, maybe has a live one here, I don’t know that the works are sufficient. Show Some Magic was a game winner in his last but only shows one work; Fortify, also a winner in his last, acted up in the gate but drew off, an AP Indy type on the bottom side shows two works, the last 4fl work in 46 flat is particularly impressive – got a bad feelin’ about this one. Majestic Hussar won handily in his last in the slop and shows one sharp work, another AP Indy type shows a nice running line but the speed figure is a bit low. D Wayne brings in Royal Art third place finisher to Overanalyze in the MSW, shows two soft works, particularly ambitious here; rounding out the field is Repole’s Overanalyze, hand ridden MSW 80k winner coming in with two sharp works with Hall of Famer JohnnyV up.
Whew! Nice bunch. Meet totals: 46 races, 30% wire to wire, 67% speed bias. Week totals: 5 races, 20% wire to wire, 80% speed bias. Interesting . . . week totals show track favoring E and E/P types but only one wire to wire winner; gotta be a P type. Bern Identity looks tough in this one and has the running style suited for the surface but shows a weak RPF+3 when compared to the RPF-30 of Shanghai Bobby, Shanghai can rate, shows a nice series of works but hasn’t run past 5.5 furlongs and hasn't run in two months; tough pick . . . let me take a look at the Aptitudinal Type data, see if it can help here. Early-maturing dirt sprinters (SDE) show a CD of 1.05: Shanghai Bobby shows a CD of 1.00 while Bern Identity shows a CD of 0.64.
Shanghai Bobby
Bern Identity
Lookin' forward to the Hopeful Stakes!
Nothin’ like the Derby Trail!
The Hopeful Stakes is an American Thoroughbred horse race run annually at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, New York. Open to two-year-old horses, the Hopeful is the first Grade I stakes for two-year-olds each season and historically has been a showcase for some of the top East Coast horses at that age group. Raced on the dirt over a distance of seven furlongs, the Grade I event offers a purse of $250,000 [$ 300,000].The race is currently part of the Breeders' Cup Challenge series. The winner will automatically qualify for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
Inaugurated in 1903, the first edition was won by Delhi. In 1904, the Hopeful Stakes was won by the filly Tanya who would go on to win one of the American Classic Races the following year. Initially raced at a distance of six furlongs, from 1925 through 1993 it was run at six and a half furlongs and since 1994 at seven furlongs. Currently, the Hopeful Stakes is the first influential prep race leading up to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and since 1925 has been a competition that marks the first time two-year-olds are tested at a distance beyond six furlongs. [Turf?]The name stems from the hope every two-year-old handlers have for their horse's racing future.
Due to the State of New York's legislated ban on parimutuel betting, there was no race in 1911 and 1912. During World War II, the Hopeful Stakes was run at Belmont Park in 1943, 1944, and 1945. Only four horses have ever won all three Saratoga Racecourse events for two-year-olds. Regret (1914), Campfire (1916), Dehere (1993), and City Zip (2000) each swept the Hopeful Stakes, Saratoga Special Stakes, and the Sanford Stakes.
Time record: (at current 7 furlong distance) 1:21.94 - Came Home (2001)
Most wins by an owner: 4 - George D. Widener, Jr. (1928, 1950, 1961, 1966)
Most wins by a jockey: 6 - Jerry D. Bailey (1982, 1983, 1999, 2000, 2003, 2005)
(Wikipedia)
Nice one!
Grade II Sanford winner Bern Identity comes into the Hopeful likely the class of the field, shows three blistering works on the main track, positive jock switch, positive running line, should be tough to beat - no excuses. Vegas No Show comes in off a win at a mile at Delaware, shows three outstanding works but lacks early foot, gets a new surface, new jock, and steps up in class, askin’ a bit much. Pletcher charge Lawn Man comes out of a MSW 80k on a Saratoga surface labeled good, shows three nice works on the main track, the last in 48.3 was a nice one and the race on a good surface bodes well for his stamina, an A.P. Indy type goin’ from a MSW 80k to a G I, hopeful! Shanghai Bobby, another Pletcher charge comes into the Hopeful after winning the 85k Track Barron Stakes, hasn’t raced in two months but shows five relatively sharp works . . . shows a break in works from the tr.t to the main track, generally a negative sign but he comes right back works a soft 4f and a nice 5fl in 1:00.4. Roman has him ranked 3rd best colt in the country with a RPF -31 . . . gotta think Pletcher has been sittin’ tight on this one, maybe has a live one here, I don’t know that the works are sufficient. Show Some Magic was a game winner in his last but only shows one work; Fortify, also a winner in his last, acted up in the gate but drew off, an AP Indy type on the bottom side shows two works, the last 4fl work in 46 flat is particularly impressive – got a bad feelin’ about this one. Majestic Hussar won handily in his last in the slop and shows one sharp work, another AP Indy type shows a nice running line but the speed figure is a bit low. D Wayne brings in Royal Art third place finisher to Overanalyze in the MSW, shows two soft works, particularly ambitious here; rounding out the field is Repole’s Overanalyze, hand ridden MSW 80k winner coming in with two sharp works with Hall of Famer JohnnyV up.
Whew! Nice bunch. Meet totals: 46 races, 30% wire to wire, 67% speed bias. Week totals: 5 races, 20% wire to wire, 80% speed bias. Interesting . . . week totals show track favoring E and E/P types but only one wire to wire winner; gotta be a P type. Bern Identity looks tough in this one and has the running style suited for the surface but shows a weak RPF+3 when compared to the RPF-30 of Shanghai Bobby, Shanghai can rate, shows a nice series of works but hasn’t run past 5.5 furlongs and hasn't run in two months; tough pick . . . let me take a look at the Aptitudinal Type data, see if it can help here. Early-maturing dirt sprinters (SDE) show a CD of 1.05: Shanghai Bobby shows a CD of 1.00 while Bern Identity shows a CD of 0.64.
Shanghai Bobby
Bern Identity
Lookin' forward to the Hopeful Stakes!
Nothin’ like the Derby Trail!
Restriction of free thought and free speech is the most dangerous of all subversions. - William O. Douglas
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It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
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It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
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Whirlaway
- Grade III Winner
- Posts: 1146
- Joined: Sun Feb 05, 2006 9:27 pm
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Shanghai Bobby wins the Hopeful Stakes!
Shanghai Bobby left the starting gate with no apparent mishap, settled into the middle of the field reaching the backstretch, entered the turn three wide, ranged up towards the front runners and issued a challenge in earnest by the midway point, was the outermost of three fighting for control from that station until the three-sixteenth pole, drew off quickly during the ensuing sixteenth under strong handling, maintained a healthy margin to the wire kept to the task at hand.
Sometimes it all comes together and it makes the game a great joy - I don't know that there is anything I'd rather do. Nice job by the jockey here and a good fine right job by the trainer. No doubt the RPF and the Aptitudinal Type data made all the difference.
Nothin' like the Derby Trail.
Shanghai Bobby left the starting gate with no apparent mishap, settled into the middle of the field reaching the backstretch, entered the turn three wide, ranged up towards the front runners and issued a challenge in earnest by the midway point, was the outermost of three fighting for control from that station until the three-sixteenth pole, drew off quickly during the ensuing sixteenth under strong handling, maintained a healthy margin to the wire kept to the task at hand.
Sometimes it all comes together and it makes the game a great joy - I don't know that there is anything I'd rather do. Nice job by the jockey here and a good fine right job by the trainer. No doubt the RPF and the Aptitudinal Type data made all the difference.
Nothin' like the Derby Trail.
Restriction of free thought and free speech is the most dangerous of all subversions. - William O. Douglas
~
It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
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It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
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Whirlaway
- Grade III Winner
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- Joined: Sun Feb 05, 2006 9:27 pm
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Joy is often short lived, as it should be. Too much fun is too much fun and one is only as good as the next race, and this one, well . . .
The seventh race in this series is the Del Mar Futurity G I.
The Del Mar Futurity is an American Thoroughbred horse race held annually at Del Mar Racetrack in Del Mar, California. A Grade I event since 2007, the race is open to horses, age two, willing to race seven furlongs on Polytrack synthetic dirt and offers a purse of $250,000. The race is currently part of the Breeders' Cup Challenge series. The winner will automatically qualify for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. In 1971, it was run in two divisions on Turf. Not only does trainer Bob Baffert hold the record for the most Del Mar Futurity wins with nine, seven of those wins came in consecutive years.
Speed record: 1:21.29 - Declan's Moon (2004) (Dirt) 1:22.16 - Drill (2011) (Polytrack)
Most wins by a jockey: 6 - Bill Shoemaker (1954, 1958, 1971–1974)
Most wins by a trainer: 10 - Bob Baffert (1996–2002, 2008, 2009, 2011)
Most wins by an owner: 5 - Golden Eagle Farm (1990, 1992, 1993, 1997, 1998)
(Wikipedia)
PPs. http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm Baffert>Del Mar Futurity.
Should be and interesting one.
Demanding series of workouts for the horses on the west coast compared to their counterparts on the other side of the Mississippi – they’re all in and all out in their workouts with Mr. Baffert demonstrating how to get it done.
Gabriel Charles MSW 70k winner last out hasn’t run in 46 days but shows a series of five outstanding works; Capo Bastone another MSW 70k winner shows only four works but all four quite remarkable, gets a jock switch; Switch to the Lead another MSW 70k winner first time out and third in the Sorrento gets a soft 4fl and a spritely 5fl in 1:00, nice filly gets a jock switch; Yankee Rebel a MC 80k raced some 48 days ago and gets five nice works, the works a little soft compared to the first two, another getting a jock switch; Know More, winner of the G II Best Pal Stakes first time out shows only one work and a new trainer winning 28% / 39% on the All Weather and 50% / 80% Winner last race; Heir of Storm a MSW 50k first time winner and fourth in the Best Pal shows three nice works; The Whole Deal gets a fresh set of blinkers and only one work, was in tight at the eighth pole and was outkicked; Pure Loyalty was off a bit slow in his first and was tight at the quarter pole but appears game but only one nice 5fl work another jock switch; Caballo Del Cielo just missed in his first trying to wire the field in a MSW 70k, show a blistering 6fl work and an equally fast 4fl work, impressive, but low speed figure, jock switch; Rolling Fog shows five outstanding works for Baffert hitting 26% / 59% All Weather and 30% / 65% Mdn winner L/R – no excuses for this one; Scherer Magic winner of the Hollywood Juvenile Championship and fifth last out in the Best Pal comes right back with three impressive works, one on the turf dogs up with a jock switch; why the grass and will he bounce back? I’ve Struck a Nerve just missed in his last splitting foes, shows no works.
Hmmm . . . Eight races at the meet at 7fl, Speed bias for the meet 63%, 13% wire to wire. Two races at 7fl for the week, speed bias for the week 50%, wire to wire 50% - gotta be a P type.
I couldn’t get a particular good feel for any of em’ in this race, couldn't find any clues or leads to follow. I initially liked Capo Bastone but he comes from too far back. I think it’ll be tough for any of em’ to beat Zetcher’s Rolling Fog with those works and Baffert has pretty much owned this race. Hard to get a fix on Know More with the new trainer and only one work, I figure he is the class of the race and has been out on the track . . .
Know More
Rolling Fog
Nothin’ Like the Derby Trail.
Lookin’ forward to the three-year-olds!
The seventh race in this series is the Del Mar Futurity G I.
The Del Mar Futurity is an American Thoroughbred horse race held annually at Del Mar Racetrack in Del Mar, California. A Grade I event since 2007, the race is open to horses, age two, willing to race seven furlongs on Polytrack synthetic dirt and offers a purse of $250,000. The race is currently part of the Breeders' Cup Challenge series. The winner will automatically qualify for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. In 1971, it was run in two divisions on Turf. Not only does trainer Bob Baffert hold the record for the most Del Mar Futurity wins with nine, seven of those wins came in consecutive years.
Speed record: 1:21.29 - Declan's Moon (2004) (Dirt) 1:22.16 - Drill (2011) (Polytrack)
Most wins by a jockey: 6 - Bill Shoemaker (1954, 1958, 1971–1974)
Most wins by a trainer: 10 - Bob Baffert (1996–2002, 2008, 2009, 2011)
Most wins by an owner: 5 - Golden Eagle Farm (1990, 1992, 1993, 1997, 1998)
(Wikipedia)
PPs. http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm Baffert>Del Mar Futurity.
Should be and interesting one.
Demanding series of workouts for the horses on the west coast compared to their counterparts on the other side of the Mississippi – they’re all in and all out in their workouts with Mr. Baffert demonstrating how to get it done.
Gabriel Charles MSW 70k winner last out hasn’t run in 46 days but shows a series of five outstanding works; Capo Bastone another MSW 70k winner shows only four works but all four quite remarkable, gets a jock switch; Switch to the Lead another MSW 70k winner first time out and third in the Sorrento gets a soft 4fl and a spritely 5fl in 1:00, nice filly gets a jock switch; Yankee Rebel a MC 80k raced some 48 days ago and gets five nice works, the works a little soft compared to the first two, another getting a jock switch; Know More, winner of the G II Best Pal Stakes first time out shows only one work and a new trainer winning 28% / 39% on the All Weather and 50% / 80% Winner last race; Heir of Storm a MSW 50k first time winner and fourth in the Best Pal shows three nice works; The Whole Deal gets a fresh set of blinkers and only one work, was in tight at the eighth pole and was outkicked; Pure Loyalty was off a bit slow in his first and was tight at the quarter pole but appears game but only one nice 5fl work another jock switch; Caballo Del Cielo just missed in his first trying to wire the field in a MSW 70k, show a blistering 6fl work and an equally fast 4fl work, impressive, but low speed figure, jock switch; Rolling Fog shows five outstanding works for Baffert hitting 26% / 59% All Weather and 30% / 65% Mdn winner L/R – no excuses for this one; Scherer Magic winner of the Hollywood Juvenile Championship and fifth last out in the Best Pal comes right back with three impressive works, one on the turf dogs up with a jock switch; why the grass and will he bounce back? I’ve Struck a Nerve just missed in his last splitting foes, shows no works.
Hmmm . . . Eight races at the meet at 7fl, Speed bias for the meet 63%, 13% wire to wire. Two races at 7fl for the week, speed bias for the week 50%, wire to wire 50% - gotta be a P type.
I couldn’t get a particular good feel for any of em’ in this race, couldn't find any clues or leads to follow. I initially liked Capo Bastone but he comes from too far back. I think it’ll be tough for any of em’ to beat Zetcher’s Rolling Fog with those works and Baffert has pretty much owned this race. Hard to get a fix on Know More with the new trainer and only one work, I figure he is the class of the race and has been out on the track . . .
Know More
Rolling Fog
Nothin’ Like the Derby Trail.
Lookin’ forward to the three-year-olds!
Restriction of free thought and free speech is the most dangerous of all subversions. - William O. Douglas
~
It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
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It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
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Whirlaway
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- Joined: Sun Feb 05, 2006 9:27 pm
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Rolling Fog wins the Del Mar Futurity!
Rolling Fog had good early speed and dueled outside a rival, was floated out a bit into the stretch, gained the lead, kicked away under urging past the eighth pole, drifted in some and held gamely.
Nice colt, game. Went off at 7.30/1. Nice job by the rider and another outstanding job by Mr. Baffert - he wins the Del Mar Futurity with Rolling Fog and the Del Mar Debutante with Executiveprivilege. Must be nice and the other trainers must be scratchin' their heads. No doubt they've seen the Baffert training regimen, but how can they possible employ the same regimen with inferior stock?! Just can't be done. What's a feller or gal to do?
Know More gets up for place. Know More chased between horses or off the rail, came out leaving the turn and four wide into the stretch and finished willingly. I think they might be savin' this one up for them big races in November.
I wrote the following paragraph at the Oaks Trail 2013 thread regarding the Del Mar Debutante Stakes:
I don't know that that the betting public understands the relationship between workouts and racetrack performance. l've seen this pattern a few times and I believe it represents what may be one area where a keen workout handicapper can win a few bets.
Interesting we get to see this pattern so relatively soon. Come to think of it, didn't we see the same pattern with Shanghai Bobby in the Hopeful and with So Many Ways in the Spinaway? After all this time . . . there are still some handicapping factors yet to be learned and employed and new, differing and evolving handicapping strategies and tactics yet to be discovered.
Gotta love the game.
Next race: Arlington-Washington Futurity, G III
Nothin' Like the Derby Trail.
Rolling Fog had good early speed and dueled outside a rival, was floated out a bit into the stretch, gained the lead, kicked away under urging past the eighth pole, drifted in some and held gamely.
Nice colt, game. Went off at 7.30/1. Nice job by the rider and another outstanding job by Mr. Baffert - he wins the Del Mar Futurity with Rolling Fog and the Del Mar Debutante with Executiveprivilege. Must be nice and the other trainers must be scratchin' their heads. No doubt they've seen the Baffert training regimen, but how can they possible employ the same regimen with inferior stock?! Just can't be done. What's a feller or gal to do?
Know More gets up for place. Know More chased between horses or off the rail, came out leaving the turn and four wide into the stretch and finished willingly. I think they might be savin' this one up for them big races in November.
I wrote the following paragraph at the Oaks Trail 2013 thread regarding the Del Mar Debutante Stakes:
I don't know that that the betting public understands the relationship between workouts and racetrack performance. l've seen this pattern a few times and I believe it represents what may be one area where a keen workout handicapper can win a few bets.
Interesting we get to see this pattern so relatively soon. Come to think of it, didn't we see the same pattern with Shanghai Bobby in the Hopeful and with So Many Ways in the Spinaway? After all this time . . . there are still some handicapping factors yet to be learned and employed and new, differing and evolving handicapping strategies and tactics yet to be discovered.
Gotta love the game.
Next race: Arlington-Washington Futurity, G III
Nothin' Like the Derby Trail.
Restriction of free thought and free speech is the most dangerous of all subversions. - William O. Douglas
~
It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
~
It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
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Whirlaway
- Grade III Winner
- Posts: 1146
- Joined: Sun Feb 05, 2006 9:27 pm
- Location: Home of the brave.
No trainer past performances available for Arlington-Washington Futurity, G III.
Next race: Frontrunner Stakes G I (formerly the Norfolk Stakes).
Lookin' forward to em' runnin' at Santa Anita.
Nothin' like the Derby Trail.
Next race: Frontrunner Stakes G I (formerly the Norfolk Stakes).
Lookin' forward to em' runnin' at Santa Anita.
Nothin' like the Derby Trail.
Restriction of free thought and free speech is the most dangerous of all subversions. - William O. Douglas
~
It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
~
It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
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Whirlaway
- Grade III Winner
- Posts: 1146
- Joined: Sun Feb 05, 2006 9:27 pm
- Location: Home of the brave.
Once again, good to be back.
~
The eighth race in this series is the Frontrunner Stakes G I (formerly the Norfolk Stakes).
The Norfolk Stakes G I is an American Thoroughbred horse race run annually near the end of September during the Oak Tree Racing Association meet at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California. A Grade I event, it is open to two-year-old horses willing to race one and one-sixteenth miles on the dirt. This race is a Road to the Kentucky Derby Prep Season qualifying race. The winner receives 10 points toward qualifying for the Kentucky Derby. The race is currently part of the Breeders' Cup Challenge series. The winner will automatically qualify for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
First run in 1970, it was formerly a Grade I event but eventually became a Grade II near the end of the 1990s. However, the American Graded Stakes Committee announced its return to Grade I status for 2007. The Norfolk Stakes was run over a distance of 1 mile from 1997 through 2001. It was run in two divisions in 1980.
Speed record: (at current distance of 11/16 miles) 1:41.27 - Ruler's Court (2003)
Most wins by a jockey: 7 - Alex Solis (1985, 1991, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2008)
Most wins by a trainer: 5 - Bob Baffert (1997, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2009)
Most wins by an owner: 3 - Golden Eagle Farm (1990, 1992, 1997)
(Wikipedia)
Looks to be a wide open affair with Baffert runnin’ three in this one trying to sweep the Chandelier and the Frontrunner – can anyone stop this guy!?
Baffert and Miller’s Carving concerns me. Only one of two that has run on the dirt, he shows all the signs of a good un’; readiness, competitive, early speed, determination and late drive – yet to be determined if he possesses the class. I took a look at his breeding, he looks the kind and I’ve seen Baffert run this kind under the radar, shows Dominant Classicity and one point in the Professional, one sharp work - he gets the distance; Gabriel Charles, two nice works, but don’t see it; Dirty Swagg won a good one last out at a mile, two nice works, but the 1:13.2 at 6f likely won’t cut it today; The Whole Deal needs a whole new deal (lol); Dry Sumer has won two back to back, at 6f then 8f, last on the grass, gets the six in 1:10.3, shows two nice works on the surface, gets a jock switch, gets a positive post – don’t see any negatives with this one; AP Indy type Imperative won his last at 26k steppin’ up to a G I, may be askin’ a bit much; Know More gets his trainer back, shows one work, possesses the class but condition is hazy; gotta figure he has been out on the track, can’t count him out; Capo Bastone has been competitive, Sadler shows two nice works but speed figures a bit low; Den’s Legacy, the second Baffert runner won his last after a troubled start, shows three nice works on the surface, the last particularly sharp, speed figures lower than the first Baffert charge; AP Indy type Power Broker, the third Baffert horse shows two nice races on the grass and two nice works on the dirt, I’ve seen this running line win next out , but running line may be compromised by post; if he gets out front, I don’t think they catch him; Wild Student needs more schooling.
Tough one to read coupled with not track data! That makes it that much more exciting! Instinct tells me Carving, shows all the signs and good speed figures but his class is undetermined. Know More is the class, but his conditioning is hazy. I’ve got to figure Know More has been out on the track, jogging, working, walking, freshening – data doesn’t show it, but I’ve got to figure it and that 35.4 blowout signals readiness; Power Broker is sharp, but he does it on the grass. Can't forget Dry Summer . . .
I feel safe with the class.
Know More
Carving
Nothin' like the Derby Trail!
~
The eighth race in this series is the Frontrunner Stakes G I (formerly the Norfolk Stakes).
The Norfolk Stakes G I is an American Thoroughbred horse race run annually near the end of September during the Oak Tree Racing Association meet at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California. A Grade I event, it is open to two-year-old horses willing to race one and one-sixteenth miles on the dirt. This race is a Road to the Kentucky Derby Prep Season qualifying race. The winner receives 10 points toward qualifying for the Kentucky Derby. The race is currently part of the Breeders' Cup Challenge series. The winner will automatically qualify for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
First run in 1970, it was formerly a Grade I event but eventually became a Grade II near the end of the 1990s. However, the American Graded Stakes Committee announced its return to Grade I status for 2007. The Norfolk Stakes was run over a distance of 1 mile from 1997 through 2001. It was run in two divisions in 1980.
Speed record: (at current distance of 11/16 miles) 1:41.27 - Ruler's Court (2003)
Most wins by a jockey: 7 - Alex Solis (1985, 1991, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2008)
Most wins by a trainer: 5 - Bob Baffert (1997, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2009)
Most wins by an owner: 3 - Golden Eagle Farm (1990, 1992, 1997)
(Wikipedia)
Looks to be a wide open affair with Baffert runnin’ three in this one trying to sweep the Chandelier and the Frontrunner – can anyone stop this guy!?
Baffert and Miller’s Carving concerns me. Only one of two that has run on the dirt, he shows all the signs of a good un’; readiness, competitive, early speed, determination and late drive – yet to be determined if he possesses the class. I took a look at his breeding, he looks the kind and I’ve seen Baffert run this kind under the radar, shows Dominant Classicity and one point in the Professional, one sharp work - he gets the distance; Gabriel Charles, two nice works, but don’t see it; Dirty Swagg won a good one last out at a mile, two nice works, but the 1:13.2 at 6f likely won’t cut it today; The Whole Deal needs a whole new deal (lol); Dry Sumer has won two back to back, at 6f then 8f, last on the grass, gets the six in 1:10.3, shows two nice works on the surface, gets a jock switch, gets a positive post – don’t see any negatives with this one; AP Indy type Imperative won his last at 26k steppin’ up to a G I, may be askin’ a bit much; Know More gets his trainer back, shows one work, possesses the class but condition is hazy; gotta figure he has been out on the track, can’t count him out; Capo Bastone has been competitive, Sadler shows two nice works but speed figures a bit low; Den’s Legacy, the second Baffert runner won his last after a troubled start, shows three nice works on the surface, the last particularly sharp, speed figures lower than the first Baffert charge; AP Indy type Power Broker, the third Baffert horse shows two nice races on the grass and two nice works on the dirt, I’ve seen this running line win next out , but running line may be compromised by post; if he gets out front, I don’t think they catch him; Wild Student needs more schooling.
Tough one to read coupled with not track data! That makes it that much more exciting! Instinct tells me Carving, shows all the signs and good speed figures but his class is undetermined. Know More is the class, but his conditioning is hazy. I’ve got to figure Know More has been out on the track, jogging, working, walking, freshening – data doesn’t show it, but I’ve got to figure it and that 35.4 blowout signals readiness; Power Broker is sharp, but he does it on the grass. Can't forget Dry Summer . . .
I feel safe with the class.
Know More
Carving
Nothin' like the Derby Trail!
Restriction of free thought and free speech is the most dangerous of all subversions. - William O. Douglas
~
It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
~
It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
-
Whirlaway
- Grade III Winner
- Posts: 1146
- Joined: Sun Feb 05, 2006 9:27 pm
- Location: Home of the brave.
Power Broker wins the Frontrunner!
Power Broker had speed outside then pressed the pace three wide, took a short lead in upper stretch, inched clear and drifted in and drew off under some left hand urging. Know More dueled outside a rival then between foes to the stretch, could not match the winner but held second.
I wrote in the preview, "I've seen that running line win next out." Some 40 years ago, Ainslie wrote about that running line:
Here is a list of the circumstances in which a poor effort is forgivable. Overlook a horse's last race if: The horse showed high early speed before tiring or even stopping or quitting. This often is more than just an alibi for a poor finish. It may be a positive sign of approaching form, and of a trainer's imminent intent of lowering the boom. The past-performance line shows that the animal led or ran within a length or so of the early pace (usually to the pre-stretch call) before conking out. Unless the animal is a chronic quitter that does this sort of thing in almost every outing, the player should be delighted to forgive the eighth place finish. Dollars to doughnuts, if the horse is well placed today it will show early speed again and carry it further.
Saw it with Brave Dave in theSapling, saw it with Power Broker in this one. Ainslie wrote about it four decades ago, still holds true today. I wrote I wouldn't let it happen again . . . I let it happen again, needless to say, disappointed. Gotta love this game, its up and downs, its pure joy. I'll be looking for that runnin' line again, doesn't mean I'll bet it, but make sure I understand its import. That's what this thread is all about.
Power Broker scores a RPF -31 in the Frontrunner, tied for forth best two-year-old colt in the country. Baffert sweeps the two G I races. Gotta give credit where credit is due. Congratulations to Bobby B, stay well Bobby B, and fine ride by the jockey here, nice piece of work.
Lookin' forward to the next one: Breeders' Futurity G I
Nothin' like the Derby Trail!
Power Broker had speed outside then pressed the pace three wide, took a short lead in upper stretch, inched clear and drifted in and drew off under some left hand urging. Know More dueled outside a rival then between foes to the stretch, could not match the winner but held second.
I wrote in the preview, "I've seen that running line win next out." Some 40 years ago, Ainslie wrote about that running line:
Here is a list of the circumstances in which a poor effort is forgivable. Overlook a horse's last race if: The horse showed high early speed before tiring or even stopping or quitting. This often is more than just an alibi for a poor finish. It may be a positive sign of approaching form, and of a trainer's imminent intent of lowering the boom. The past-performance line shows that the animal led or ran within a length or so of the early pace (usually to the pre-stretch call) before conking out. Unless the animal is a chronic quitter that does this sort of thing in almost every outing, the player should be delighted to forgive the eighth place finish. Dollars to doughnuts, if the horse is well placed today it will show early speed again and carry it further.
Saw it with Brave Dave in theSapling, saw it with Power Broker in this one. Ainslie wrote about it four decades ago, still holds true today. I wrote I wouldn't let it happen again . . . I let it happen again, needless to say, disappointed. Gotta love this game, its up and downs, its pure joy. I'll be looking for that runnin' line again, doesn't mean I'll bet it, but make sure I understand its import. That's what this thread is all about.
Power Broker scores a RPF -31 in the Frontrunner, tied for forth best two-year-old colt in the country. Baffert sweeps the two G I races. Gotta give credit where credit is due. Congratulations to Bobby B, stay well Bobby B, and fine ride by the jockey here, nice piece of work.
Lookin' forward to the next one: Breeders' Futurity G I
Nothin' like the Derby Trail!
Restriction of free thought and free speech is the most dangerous of all subversions. - William O. Douglas
~
It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
~
It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
-
Whirlaway
- Grade III Winner
- Posts: 1146
- Joined: Sun Feb 05, 2006 9:27 pm
- Location: Home of the brave.
I've never done well at Keeneland, pass the Breeders’ Futurity.
~
The ninth race in this series is the Champagne Stakes G I .
The Champagne Stakes is an American Grade I Thoroughbred horse race for two-year-old horses. The race is run at a distance of one mile on the dirt at Belmont Park in October each year. It is nested exclusively by colts. The race is a Road to the Kentucky Derby Prep Season qualifying race. The winner receives 10 points toward qualifying for the Kentucky Derby.[1] The race is currently part of the Breeders' Cup Challenge series. The winner will automatically qualify for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
The race was first run in 1867, and it is the oldest race of its kind in the United States. It was given the same name as the British Champagne Stakes which has been run annually since 1823 at the Doncaster Racecourse in South Yorkshire, England. There was no Champagne Stakes run from 1910 through 1913, due to a legislated ban by the State of New York on parimutuel wagering, and no race was held in 1956. Notable past winners who have gone on to success as three-year-olds or older include U.S. Triple Crown champions Seattle Slew, and Count Fleet and others such as Ben Brush, Colin, Sarazen, Alsab, Grey Lag, Buckpasser, Riva Ridge, Foolish Pleasure, Alydar, Spectacular Bid, and Easy Goer, all of whom are now in the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame.
The 1880 winner was Lady Rosebery, a horse owned by August Belmont, Sr. and named to honor England's Hannah Primrose, Countess of Rosebery whose family was prominent in British racing. Similarly, the 1950 winner was Uncle Miltie, a horse given the nickname of the famous comedian and New York City native, Milton Berle.
The inaugural running of the Champagne Stakes took place in 1867 at Jerome Park Racetrack prior where it remained through 1889. Shifted to the Morris Park Racetrack facility, it was held there through 1904. Moved to its present home at Belmont Park for the 1905 racing season, it was run at the Aqueduct Racetrack in 1959, from 1963 to 1967, and again in 1984.
Over the years, the Champagne Stakes has been raced over a variety of distances: Six furlongs : 1871-1889; Seven furlongs : 1891-1904; 165 feet short of seven furlongs (Widener Course) : 1905-1932; Six and one half furlongs (Widener Course) : 1933-1939; One mile : 1940-1983, 1985–1993; 2005 to present; One and one eighth miles : 1984; One mile one-sixteenth miles : 1994-2004
Speed record: 1:34.20 - Devil's Bag (1983); 1:34.40 - Seattle Slew (1976)
Most wins by an owner: 5 - Calumet Farm (1933, 1936, 1944, 1949, 1977)
Most wins by a jockey: 5 - Braulio Baeza (1964, 1965, 1966, 1967, 1975) History is always nice to learn somethin' (Wikipedia)
Onto the race!
PPs: http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm Pletcher > Champagne
Looks like we may have a Pletcher sweep! He has three entered in this one all of them with top jocks.
Goldencents ships in from Cali, shows relatively soft works but has likely been out on the surface, goes from a MSW 70k to a G I, askin’ a bunch; Pletcher’s undefeated Shanghai Bobby had a nice score in his last in the G II Hopeful Stakes, shows the class of the race, positive post and two sharp works on the tr.t, no excuses. Chief Havoc may rein havoc on this field. This one took some research: Does a Class 2 fit? Class 2-7 or Handicap races: In Handicap races the British Horseracing Authority official handicapper gives horses a rating according to their ability. This rating then translates to the weight that the horse has to carry in the race, in the interest of making it fair so that poorer horses still have a chance of competing against better horses. Handicaps are the bread and butter daily races, although some of these are also quite prestigious. Handicaps are divided up from Class 2-7 to make sure horses of similar ratings are racing against each other: Class 2 - Heritage Handicaps, Handicaps of rating 86-100, 91-105 and 96-110. Always somethin’ to learn as these owners and trainers are always lookin’ for that winning angle. He fits maybe, but the long trip, the surface, the jock, the counterclockwise . . . maybe, but probably not; $ 375k purchase Archwarrior, the second Pletcher charge shows a hand ride 6fl in 70 flat and those three sharp works on the tr.t and Dominant Classicity makes this one formidable, goes from MSW 80k to a G I with Johnny V up, whew! Fortify looks equally tough, second to Shanghai Bobby in the Hopeful after being bumped at the start, he shows blistering works at GTC, dead fit and nice piece of work by the trainer here; Bern Identity looked tough in the G II Sanford but that 71 flat looks kinda soft and just don’t believe that will be enough today, one nice work and a jock switch; Repole owned Micromanage, the third Pletcher charge won had ridden in a MSW 80k last out, shows three sharp works on the tr.t and gets a top jock switch, equally tough.
Hmmm . . . Track conditions: For the meet: 22 races at 8fl, 32% winners wire to wire with a 64% speed bias. For the week, 4 races, 25% wire to wire with a 75% speed bias – no S types the last week, everything comin’ from relatively close up – gotta be and EP/P type. The Aptitudinal data is tells me the CD for a Router Dirt Early (RDE) is .75, I believe the Aptitudinal data excludes all but three. If I toss Bern Identity, that leaves me with Shanghai Bobby and Fortify.
Let’s get into this a little bit deeper just for the fun of it with a little bit of comparative speed figure research. Roman has Shanghai Bobby with RPF -23 in the Hopeful, RPF -31 in the Trackbarron. RPF -23 = BRIS 93 / RPF -31 = BRIS 95. BRIS has Shanghai Bobby with BRIS 99 in the Hopeful, BRIS 103 in the Trackbarron. BRIS 103 = RPF -70 / BRIS 99 = RPF -50. How you use the comparative data and the conclusions you draw must be your own, suffice to say I’ve seen this pattern before, thought I might share it with you here. Maybe you can use it in the future . . . maybe. Always fun to share, for those interested the link to the speed comparatives: http://www.chef-de-race.com/pfs/comparative_speed_figs.htm
Lookin’ forward to seein’ what Shanghai has for em’!
Shanghai Bobby
Fortify
Nothin’ like the Derby Trail!
~
The ninth race in this series is the Champagne Stakes G I .
The Champagne Stakes is an American Grade I Thoroughbred horse race for two-year-old horses. The race is run at a distance of one mile on the dirt at Belmont Park in October each year. It is nested exclusively by colts. The race is a Road to the Kentucky Derby Prep Season qualifying race. The winner receives 10 points toward qualifying for the Kentucky Derby.[1] The race is currently part of the Breeders' Cup Challenge series. The winner will automatically qualify for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
The race was first run in 1867, and it is the oldest race of its kind in the United States. It was given the same name as the British Champagne Stakes which has been run annually since 1823 at the Doncaster Racecourse in South Yorkshire, England. There was no Champagne Stakes run from 1910 through 1913, due to a legislated ban by the State of New York on parimutuel wagering, and no race was held in 1956. Notable past winners who have gone on to success as three-year-olds or older include U.S. Triple Crown champions Seattle Slew, and Count Fleet and others such as Ben Brush, Colin, Sarazen, Alsab, Grey Lag, Buckpasser, Riva Ridge, Foolish Pleasure, Alydar, Spectacular Bid, and Easy Goer, all of whom are now in the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame.
The 1880 winner was Lady Rosebery, a horse owned by August Belmont, Sr. and named to honor England's Hannah Primrose, Countess of Rosebery whose family was prominent in British racing. Similarly, the 1950 winner was Uncle Miltie, a horse given the nickname of the famous comedian and New York City native, Milton Berle.
The inaugural running of the Champagne Stakes took place in 1867 at Jerome Park Racetrack prior where it remained through 1889. Shifted to the Morris Park Racetrack facility, it was held there through 1904. Moved to its present home at Belmont Park for the 1905 racing season, it was run at the Aqueduct Racetrack in 1959, from 1963 to 1967, and again in 1984.
Over the years, the Champagne Stakes has been raced over a variety of distances: Six furlongs : 1871-1889; Seven furlongs : 1891-1904; 165 feet short of seven furlongs (Widener Course) : 1905-1932; Six and one half furlongs (Widener Course) : 1933-1939; One mile : 1940-1983, 1985–1993; 2005 to present; One and one eighth miles : 1984; One mile one-sixteenth miles : 1994-2004
Speed record: 1:34.20 - Devil's Bag (1983); 1:34.40 - Seattle Slew (1976)
Most wins by an owner: 5 - Calumet Farm (1933, 1936, 1944, 1949, 1977)
Most wins by a jockey: 5 - Braulio Baeza (1964, 1965, 1966, 1967, 1975) History is always nice to learn somethin' (Wikipedia)
Onto the race!
PPs: http://horseracing.about.com/od/racedayinfo/a/aafree-pps.htm Pletcher > Champagne
Looks like we may have a Pletcher sweep! He has three entered in this one all of them with top jocks.
Goldencents ships in from Cali, shows relatively soft works but has likely been out on the surface, goes from a MSW 70k to a G I, askin’ a bunch; Pletcher’s undefeated Shanghai Bobby had a nice score in his last in the G II Hopeful Stakes, shows the class of the race, positive post and two sharp works on the tr.t, no excuses. Chief Havoc may rein havoc on this field. This one took some research: Does a Class 2 fit? Class 2-7 or Handicap races: In Handicap races the British Horseracing Authority official handicapper gives horses a rating according to their ability. This rating then translates to the weight that the horse has to carry in the race, in the interest of making it fair so that poorer horses still have a chance of competing against better horses. Handicaps are the bread and butter daily races, although some of these are also quite prestigious. Handicaps are divided up from Class 2-7 to make sure horses of similar ratings are racing against each other: Class 2 - Heritage Handicaps, Handicaps of rating 86-100, 91-105 and 96-110. Always somethin’ to learn as these owners and trainers are always lookin’ for that winning angle. He fits maybe, but the long trip, the surface, the jock, the counterclockwise . . . maybe, but probably not; $ 375k purchase Archwarrior, the second Pletcher charge shows a hand ride 6fl in 70 flat and those three sharp works on the tr.t and Dominant Classicity makes this one formidable, goes from MSW 80k to a G I with Johnny V up, whew! Fortify looks equally tough, second to Shanghai Bobby in the Hopeful after being bumped at the start, he shows blistering works at GTC, dead fit and nice piece of work by the trainer here; Bern Identity looked tough in the G II Sanford but that 71 flat looks kinda soft and just don’t believe that will be enough today, one nice work and a jock switch; Repole owned Micromanage, the third Pletcher charge won had ridden in a MSW 80k last out, shows three sharp works on the tr.t and gets a top jock switch, equally tough.
Hmmm . . . Track conditions: For the meet: 22 races at 8fl, 32% winners wire to wire with a 64% speed bias. For the week, 4 races, 25% wire to wire with a 75% speed bias – no S types the last week, everything comin’ from relatively close up – gotta be and EP/P type. The Aptitudinal data is tells me the CD for a Router Dirt Early (RDE) is .75, I believe the Aptitudinal data excludes all but three. If I toss Bern Identity, that leaves me with Shanghai Bobby and Fortify.
Let’s get into this a little bit deeper just for the fun of it with a little bit of comparative speed figure research. Roman has Shanghai Bobby with RPF -23 in the Hopeful, RPF -31 in the Trackbarron. RPF -23 = BRIS 93 / RPF -31 = BRIS 95. BRIS has Shanghai Bobby with BRIS 99 in the Hopeful, BRIS 103 in the Trackbarron. BRIS 103 = RPF -70 / BRIS 99 = RPF -50. How you use the comparative data and the conclusions you draw must be your own, suffice to say I’ve seen this pattern before, thought I might share it with you here. Maybe you can use it in the future . . . maybe. Always fun to share, for those interested the link to the speed comparatives: http://www.chef-de-race.com/pfs/comparative_speed_figs.htm
Lookin’ forward to seein’ what Shanghai has for em’!
Shanghai Bobby
Fortify
Nothin’ like the Derby Trail!
Restriction of free thought and free speech is the most dangerous of all subversions. - William O. Douglas
~
It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
~
It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
-
Whirlaway
- Grade III Winner
- Posts: 1146
- Joined: Sun Feb 05, 2006 9:27 pm
- Location: Home of the brave.
Shanghai Bobby wins the Champagne!
Shanghai Bobby came away with no apparent mishap and assumed a forward position, rated kindly from the two path while attending the pacesetter, increased his presence near the half mile pole, raced on nearly even terms with the runner up for most of the way around it before edging away a short distance from the quarter pole, led the field into the stretch by a small margin and was soon set down, drifted out more than a lane after being given two left hand shots, was switched over to a brisk hand ride, had already kicked well clear of the others when he drifted outward slightly a second time in deep stretch.
Tough colt. Nice ride. Nice piece of training. RPF -30.
It'll be interesting to see where Shanghai is ranked on the Experimental Free Handicap (EFH). There are others that have run faster, but none have performed more consistently at a higher level.
Joining the winners winning . . .
Nothin' like the Derby Trail!
Shanghai Bobby came away with no apparent mishap and assumed a forward position, rated kindly from the two path while attending the pacesetter, increased his presence near the half mile pole, raced on nearly even terms with the runner up for most of the way around it before edging away a short distance from the quarter pole, led the field into the stretch by a small margin and was soon set down, drifted out more than a lane after being given two left hand shots, was switched over to a brisk hand ride, had already kicked well clear of the others when he drifted outward slightly a second time in deep stretch.
Tough colt. Nice ride. Nice piece of training. RPF -30.
It'll be interesting to see where Shanghai is ranked on the Experimental Free Handicap (EFH). There are others that have run faster, but none have performed more consistently at a higher level.
Joining the winners winning . . .
Nothin' like the Derby Trail!
Restriction of free thought and free speech is the most dangerous of all subversions. - William O. Douglas
~
It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
~
It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire