Next Up, The GR II Rebel Stakes

[TJ]

Thought I'd post this here and get some handicapping dialogue going, and after the official entries come out Wednesday, I'll post them in the Racing forum.
This Saturday will be the next leg of the Derby qualifier's in Arkansas. Here's some possibles we can start thinking about now. TJ
Super Ninety Nine (Baffert) 11 length winner of the Southwest in slop.
Den's Legacy (Baffert) possible? 2nd last time in GR II Robert B. Lewis Stk.
Oxbow (Lukas) 4th in the GR II Risen Star beaten a 1/2
Will Take Charge (Lukas) 6th in the GR III Southwest in the slop
Texas Bling (Durham) 9th in the GR III Southwest in the slop
Treasury Bill (Ellis) 2nd in the GR II San Vicente
Delhomme (Pletcher) 3rd beaten 3/4's in the GR II Remsen last season
Always In a Tiz (Schettino) 5th in the GR III Southwest in the slop

[TJ]

I find this an interesting race which should answer some important Derby contender questions. We'll find out if Super Ninety Nine needs a sloppy track and if Always In A Tiz needs a fast track? Delhomme makes his 3YO debut off a long layoff....but he's training very well, he's quick and he will give Baffert something to worry about. Treasury Bill ships in to avoid running in last Saturday's San Felipe....guess he might think he can handle Super Ninety Nine? The Lukas' pair, Oxbow may make amends and Will Take Charge may need it fast? This is going to be a fun race if a couple more decent horses show up. TJ

[zinn21]

I will be surprised if Super Ninety Nine doesn't come right back and trounce them again..

[TJ]

I will be surprised if Super Ninety Nine doesn't come right back and trounce them again..

Hi Z,
That's what I'm waiting to find out...he wasn't that impressive as a 2YO. But he's come back real good as a 3YO being undefeated in both his 3YO starts. He did win easily at the expense of a 23-1, 60-1 and a 49-1 shot's 2nd, 3rd and 4th behind him? Maybe the other contenders couldn't handle the going, so I'm interested to see if a fast track makes any difference to "Super" and the others who seemed not to handle the going? Delhomme seems to be in the same boat as Overanalyze, but with even a longer layoff. The question is, did he thrive from 2 to 3 or did he regress as Overanalyze did. Work wise it looks like he will move forward as a 3YO....much better works than Overanalyze had going into the Gotham. Will have to see him in the post parade to know. I'm still not positive these horses are in the race...but we will find out Wednesday. I'm hoping this discussion will help us come up with the winners of these preps along the way to the Derby.....and maybe make a few bucks:>) TJ

[Bill from WA]

The pretenders are starting to weed themselves out, but there’s still a lot to learn before Derby day. Verrazano was very impressive last out (my 32 -1 shot didn’t embarrass himself as clearly the 2nd best). The winner was on cruise control the whole way, and was in no danger at any time. He has a wonderfully smooth running style and is deserving of favoritism at this point. However, I think a mile and a quarter is at the outside edge of his stamina capability, and I think there are a few others that look better from a pedigree perspective (Derby distance). Looking strictly at pedigree (my opinion), I think West Hills Giant has jumped to the top of those with points. He may not have the talent that some of the others have, and his running style might not be right for the Derby (lots of contenders want to be on or near the pace), but his pedigree screams distance. I think Verrazano is probably the most talented of the bunch at this point, but the Derby distance may be a question mark. If Super Ninety Nine can rate, and if he isn’t just a mud runner, he definitely has the pedigree to get the distance. We’ll know a lot more this weekend.
Getting interesting.

[TJ]

The pretenders are starting to weed themselves out, but there’s still a lot to learn before Derby day. Verrazano was very impressive last out (my 32 -1 shot didn’t embarrass himself as clearly the 2nd best). The winner was on cruise control the whole way, and was in no danger at any time. He has a wonderfully smooth running style and is deserving of favoritism at this point. However, I think a mile and a quarter is at the outside edge of his stamina capability, and I think there are a few others that look better from a pedigree perspective (Derby distance). Looking strictly at pedigree (my opinion), I think West Hills Giant has jumped to the top of those with points. He may not have the talent that some of the others have, and his running style might not be right for the Derby (lots of contenders want to be on or near the pace), but his pedigree screams distance. I think Verrazano is probably the most talented of the bunch at this point, but the Derby distance may be a question mark. If Super Ninety Nine can rate, and if he isn’t just a mud runner, he definitely has the pedigree to get the distance. We’ll know a lot more this weekend.
Getting interesting.

Hi Bill,
I put that 32-1 in as my longshot in my Tampa Derby analysis...but when I saw you liked him that much... it was a no brainer to push the envelope. Thanks for the added incentive Bill:>) Mc Peek said he may run Java War back in the Bluegrass or the UAE Derby....why even considering the UAE Derby is a mystery to me? Maybe they're making it worth their while to go over there? He's Had Enough, Fortify and War Academy have all taked about running in the UAE Derby also.
I agree West Hills Giant is interesting and he has some real potential. I mentioned him and Elnaawi in my Gotham analysis as valid up and comers
....I wasn't disappointed with that outcome either. Delhomme doesn't come up on your radar...any thoughts? I know he's has been away a long time....but he's training very well. Could be he's been away for a reason and won't perform. So far none have done well that came out of the Remsem....which I thought was a good race? Normandy Invasion showed the most of them....although he's had no luck due to his running style in his last. He will come back in the Wood along with West Hills Giant, Elnaawi, Verrazano and Vyjack.....Orb may also show up in there? Looks like it will be a "back in the day" race when the Wood meant something:>) TJ

[TJ]

Oxbow turns in a bullet work for the Rebel Stakes. TJ
http://www.drf.com/news/oaklawn-park-ox ... bel-stakes

[TJ]

Here's the entries for the Rebel. A couple new faces...there's one in here Asmussen just claimed off Claiborne.....Carve. TJ

10th Race. (C9)Post 5:48PM STAKES
The 53rd Running of
THE REBEL (Grade II)
Purse $600,000 Guaranteed 1 1/16 Miles
THREE YEAR OLDS.
1 CARVE (L) R24 Asmussen, S Nakatani, C 117
2a TREASURY BILL (L) Ellis, R Talamo, J 115
3 TEXAS BLING (L) 0 Durham, D Berry, M 119
4 DELHOMME (L) Pletcher, T Gomez, G 115
5 HARDROCK ELEVEN (L) Banks, D Thompson, T 115
6 DEN'S LEGACY (L) Baffert, B Albarado, R 119
7 WILL TAKE CHARGE (L) 0 Lukas, D Court, J 122
8 STORMY HOLIDAY (L) 0 Robertson, M Bell, D 115
9a TITLE CONTENDER (L) - Catalano, W Quinonez, L 115
10 OXBOW (L) 30 Lukas, D Smith, M 122
11 SUPER NINETY NINE (L) - Baffert, B Bejarano, R 122
a -- West, Gary and Mary

[TJ]

Here's the PP's for the Rebel. TJ
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewe ... 2013-03-16

[aethervox]

Verrazano was very impressive last out (my 32 -1 shot didn’t embarrass himself as clearly the 2nd best). The winner was on cruise control the whole way, and was in no danger at any time. He has a wonderfully smooth running style and is deserving of favoritism at this point. However, I think a mile and a quarter is at the outside edge of his stamina capability, and I think there are a few others that look better from a pedigree perspective (Derby distance).

Bill, I agree with you, especially after finding the report linked to this article about Verrazano http://performancegenetics.com/2013/02/02/verrazano-on-the-kentucky-derby-trail/

As a yearling they reported "His heart, at this time. is slightly smaller than
average..."

So, I also don't think he'll be able to get the Derby distance.

[Bill from WA]

Hi aethervox

Thanks for the link. Very interesting.

Bill

[aethervox]

Bill,

You are very welcome.

aethervox

[Bill from WA]

KENTUCKY DERBY
HISTORICAL STAMINA RATINGS
(Since 2000)

2012: I’ll Have Another (A ++)
2011: Animal Kingdom (A++)
2010: Super Saver (A +)
2009: Mine That Bird (A +)
2008: Big Brown (A)
2007: Street Sense (A +++)
2006: Barbaro (A +)
2005: Giacomo (B)
2004: Smarty Jones (A)
2003: Funny Cide (B +)
2002: War Emblem (B)
2001: Monarchos (B +)
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus (A ++)

[Bill from WA]

More historical ratings.

1999: Charismatic (B +)
1998: Real Quiet (B)
1997: Silver Charm (A)
1996: Grindstone (A)
1995: Thunder Gulch (A ++)
1994: Go For Gin (B)
1993: Sea Hero (A +++)
1992: Lil E Tee (A +++)
1991: Strike The Gold (B)
1990: Unbridled (B)