The Spiral Stakes

TJ · Postby TJ » Thu Mar 21, 2013 5:33 am

10th RACE. (C11) Post 5:50PM The 42nd Running of Stakes
THE HORSESHOE CASINO CINCINNATI SPIRAL STAKES (Grade III)
$550,000 Guaranteed
PURSE $550,000 Guaranteed 1 1/8 Miles
FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS.
1 BALANCE THE BOOKS (L) '10 C 123 Leparoux, J Klaravich Stables, Inc. and Lawrence, William H. Brown, C
2 CHANNEL ISLE (L) '10 C 123 Court, J Calumet Farm Lukas, D
3 UNCAPTURED (L) '10 C 123 Mena, M Oxley, J Casse, M
4 FEAR THE KITTEN (L) '10 C 123 Napravnik, R Irvin, F Maker, M
5 MY NAME IS MICHAEL (L) '10 C 123 Rosario, J Butzer, Barry and Wachtel Stable Mott, W
6 FOR GREATER GLORY (L) '10 C 123 Albarado, R Lieblong, Alex and JoAnn Hobby, S
7 MAC THE MAN (L) '10 C R7 123 Arroyo, Jr., N Greenhill, S Greenhill, J
8 GENERAL ELECTION (L) '10 C 123 Jimenez, A WinStar Farm LLC Gorder, K
9 BLACK ONYX (L) '10 C 123 Bravo, J Sterling Racing Breen, K
10 GIANT FINISH (L) '10 C E45 123 Espinoza, J Sunrise Stables, Tolchin, Gary, Flanagan, Aubrey and Smith, Bob Dutrow, A
11 TAKEN BY THE STORM (L) '10 C 123 Garcia, A Chasing Dreams Racing 2011 LLC McPeek, K
12 CAPO BASTONE (L) '10 C 123 Velazquez, J Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners Pletcher, T

TJ · Postby TJ » Fri Mar 22, 2013 8:37 am

Here's the Past Performances:
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewe ... 2013-03-23

TJ · Postby TJ » Fri Mar 22, 2013 2:05 pm

This race is going to be a tough fought event and if someone runs away and hides, he will certainly be a Derby threat. I don't follow this circuit that closely, so I know little of the home town horses. Although over the last 5 years none have come closer than 3rd...so I will shy away from them, although they look tough on paper. Graham Motion has won the Spiral 3 of the last 5 years, but he's not in here with Cerro....so that thought is out. Yet his last two consecutive Spiral winner's accounted for a Derby win (Animal Kingdom) and a 4th (Went the Day Well) place finish....is it that this race is a worthy derby prep or is it Motion Magic? Not knowing enough about all weather track handicapping, I have decided to be loose as a goose and shoot for the moon. Bet a little and possibly win a lot with a few bombs. Although I think the best horse in here is John Oxley's (who won a Derby with Monarchos) Uncaptured...he's been away a long time and Casse seems to always come up a bit short...although I still think this is his best shot to win a Derby in his career. I will watch him Saturday and go for telephone numbers:>)
My Name is Michael
Taken by Storm
Capo Bastone
Balance the Books....
...I could go on, because there are 4-5 more who can get the job done...but you can spread out with 1 exacta's using big prices on top and still make a decent payday with no real damage to the pocketbook:>) Good luck with everyone's picks. TJ

Cree · Postby **Cree** » Fri Mar 22, 2013 5:03 pm

Been looking forward to Uncaptured's return, but I like the 4, Fear the Kitten, on top. And since you all were telling me McPeek is worth a look at a price, I guess Taken by the Storm is one to watch.

TJ · Postby TJ » Sat Mar 23, 2013 9:44 am

Cree wrote:Been looking forward to Uncaptured's return, but I like the 4, Fear the Kitten, on top. And since you all were telling me McPeek is worth a look at a price, I guess Taken by the Storm is one to watch.

Hi Cree,
I agree with Uncaptured...I am very interested in seeing how he does. If he's anywhere near where he was last year....he could be OK...but he's had a rough road coming back and he wasn't a very robust looking 2YO....if he moved forward at 3, this race will be very telling. I'll probably put McPeek and Mott's horse on top as long as they are big prices.....then I'll use your Kitten and a couple other's under...Lukas is on a big run with his 3YO's and his horse looks OK. That is why I like McPeek...they met twice and McPeek finished in front of Lukas' horse both times. Not a race to put much $$ into as it has a lot of variables and unknown's and I get lost handicapping synthetic tracks....yet it's a race that could influence the Derby outcome as proven with Animal Kingdom. TJ

Cree · Postby **Cree** » Sat Mar 23, 2013 10:01 am

Although he has had a ton of problems coming back, Casse has said that the horse has grown a bit:

[i]But as a 3-year-old, Uncaptured has grown up, standing a couple inches over 16 hands, Casse said. "He's grown a lot," the trainer added. "He's a big boy now.
"I'm not sure that he has developed into a much better horse -- we won't know that until he races. But he's training as well as I've ever seen him."[/i]

http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/story/_ ... iral-derby

TJ · Postby TJ » Sat Mar 23, 2013 10:10 am

Cree wrote:Although he has had a ton of problems coming back, Casse has said that the horse has grown a bit:

But as a 3-year-old, Uncaptured has grown up, standing a couple inches over 16 hands, Casse said. "He's grown a lot," the trainer added. "He's a big boy now.
"I'm not sure that he has developed into a much better horse -- we won't know that until he races. But he's training as well as I've ever seen him."

http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/story/_ ... iral-derby

Hi Cree,
Thanks....that's good to know. I've seen two nice two year old's (so far) come back and didn't develope...Overanalyze and Delhomme, so I was wary. I would like to see Casse get a shot at the Derby. I remember when he was a kid and Dave Sazer trained horses for his Dad. TJ

TJ · Postby TJ » Sat Mar 23, 2013 1:20 pm

Bill, take note...it's one you had mentioned and we spoke about. I Just noticed...Motion does like to use Turfway as a Derby prep....and he is on the Spiral under card with Crop Report...who was beaten last time in his first US appearance running a good third after gate trouble....Joel Rosario rides him again. The horse who beat him was Black Onyx...if Crop Report wins today....might have to move up Black Onyx....even make a bet on Crop Report? TJ

TJ · Postby TJ » Sat Mar 23, 2013 1:24 pm

Forget it....he opened 1-9, didn't expect that....morning line was 4-1?

TJ · Postby TJ » Sat Mar 23, 2013 1:50 pm

Crop Report just just inhaled the field from last to first within a 1/4 mile...he's for real Bill. TJ

Cree · Postby **Cree** » Sat Mar 23, 2013 2:13 pm

That's a no point race, right?
Are they pointing him to the Derby?

TJ · Postby TJ » Sat Mar 23, 2013 2:35 pm

Cree wrote:That's a no point race, right?
Are they pointing him to the Derby?

Hi Cree,
Right, no points. If they are pointing to the Derby (and after what I just saw I think they will)...I guess he will look to run back in the Blue Grass over synthetic at Keeneland going 1 1/8th miles in 3 weeks time. It's his only logical opportunity to get the needed points....it's a total of 170 points across the board....100 goes to the winner. This was a very impressive looking race by a just as impressive looking horse! TJ

TJ · Postby TJ » Sat Mar 23, 2013 2:41 pm

So much for a price on My Name is Michael, he opened 5/2 from 10-1 morning line? McPeek is still a price....but now I'm not so enthused:>) TJ

dublino · Postby **dublino** » Sat Mar 23, 2013 3:07 pm

Just seen the replay of crop report race.
I don't want to sound like Mr Negative all the time but he beat a sorry bunch of slow horses and being by Medaglia D'Oro his pedigree got him the trip.
Most of the opposition were floundering 2f out.

I wouldn't back Crop Report against a higher calibre of horses who have speed and stamina.

TJ · Postby TJ » Sat Mar 23, 2013 3:08 pm

Hi Cree,
Looks like they confirmed Crop Reports credentials for the Derby....the Spiral winner, who beat Crop Report last time they met won at a good price. I went with him and McPeek on top after Michael got bet off the board.....Uncaptured ran great and will also move up the list....that brings in a couple worthy new Derby faces now. TJ