As a novice to handicapping, I am trying to understand the impact of race distance, pace and length of the stretch on race performance. As an example, the 1 1/8 mile Florida Derby was run on a track that measured 952 feet from the top of the stretch to the finish line per my ARM. The same day at The Fairgrounds the Louisiana Derby was run at 1 1/8 m with a stretch run of 1010 feet. Last weekend the Wood was run at the same distance with a stretch run of 1155.6 ft per the ARM. The Santa Anita Derby was run on a track with a 900 ft stretch. The Oaklawn stretch is reportedly 1152 ft. Compare that with the stretch at Churchill which the ARM lists at 1234 1/2 feet.
I suspect the long Churchill stretch will favor a horse such as Normandy Invasion who was closing like a freight train in the Wood. Thoughts?
Race Distance, Pace and Length of the Stretch
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Re: Race Distance, Pace and Length of the Stretch
cewright wrote:As a novice to handicapping, I am trying to understand the impact of race distance, pace and length of the stretch on race performance. As an example, the 1 1/8 mile Florida Derby was run on a track that measured 952 feet from the top of the stretch to the finish line per my ARM. The same day at The Fairgrounds the Louisiana Derby was run at 1 1/8 m with a stretch run of 1010 feet. Last weekend the Wood was run at the same distance with a stretch run of 1155.6 ft per the ARM. The Santa Anita Derby was run on a track with a 900 ft stretch. The Oaklawn stretch is reportedly 1152 ft. Compare that with the stretch at Churchill which the ARM lists at 1234 1/2 feet.
I suspect the long Churchill stretch will favor a horse such as Normandy Invasion who was closing like a freight train in the Wood. Thoughts?
Hi cewright,
How are you? You are correct in your assessment concerning length of stretch and a particular track's bias toward favoring speed or closer's. Although the length of the stretch isn't the only factor, at times it could be a head or tail wind that will change the general tracks bias. Sometimes the track isn't maintained as evenly as other times creating deeper, slower area's around the track. Moisture/humidity in the track, the water truck, depth of harrowing, grading and weather conditions in general can change a track's bias. The actual pace that develops in the race relying on the amount of sharp speed horses to contest that pace....the faster the pace the better it will be for a closer to make his run. These are just some of the basics...but in the Derby there's yet another variable, the distance. None of these horses have ever been the distance and that is yet another very important factor to understand.... bloodlines that inherently afford a horse to run 1 1/4 miles.
Of the tracks you mentioned, Santa Anita and Gulfstream Park are the two that have the shortest stretch run and have always been know to be speed favoring tracks. That would suggest Orb outran the bias of the GP track to win. Looking at a horse like Normandy Invasion, you could say he will have the advantage when going to CD although the actual ground he made up on Verrazano was not that much. The inverse is just as viable as the obvious case that Normandy Invasion was making up ground on Verrazano and the stretch is longer in Kentucky, so he should catch him in the Derby. Sometimes it's as easy at that....but other times, oh boy:>) Here again we still have a few more variables and unkowns....the commotion, the new track surface, the confusion and crowds at Churchill Downs on Derby day, a track that most have never seen, the new 1 1/4 mile distance....new experiences, a new stall to live in, a very large field and so much more....this is why handicapping is so hard and also how important it is to be a little lucky....that goes for horse, rider and us trying to pick a winner:>) In my opinion Normandy and Vyjack all ready had the edge to beat Verrazano going in the Wood, since it was by far the longest stretch run Verrazano ever had to contend with.....his two previous stretch runs were the 898 feet of GP and the 976 feet of Tampa Bay Downs. Good luck to you as you enter this confusing new endeavor...take it from me....make mind bets, it's better to lose your mind then your money:>) All the best, TJ