Belmont Stakes Probables and Possibles

[TJ]

Remember what you said TJ "Note to self those Malibu Moons like the slop"

Hi Dub,
And we have two....Orb and Freedom Child. TJ

[Cree]

Has this long campaign done a number on Orb? I think he's the class. I also don't know how this race sets up for him.

I like Freedom Child, and if the heavens open up, he moves up.

[TJ]

Has this long campaign done a number on Orb? I think he's the class. I also don't know how this race sets up for him.

I like Freedom Child, and if the heavens open up, he moves up.

Hi Cree,
Something caused Orb's poor performance in the Preakness and winning 5 races in a row and topping that streak off with his big Derby win, could be the reason why? He only had 2 weeks between the Derby and Preakness and still worked a fast 1/2 mile in between....that too may have taken something more out of him. He's now had 3 weeks rest and breezed only once since the Preakness...a slow 1/2 mile in 48 and change. I'm sure Shug realized his tough campaign had something to do with his poor performance and it's probably why Orb only worked once in 5 weeks. It seems both possible reasons for his poor Preakness performance (other than a physical problem) have been addressed. If it rains, the two Malibu Moon's will certainly relish the going. It appears Vyjack won't complain if the track is off either....he worked a strong 5/8ths this morning over the Belmont main track labeled "good". The race appears to have plenty speed....but the riders will be the ones who decide who will make the pace. Truth is anyone can go to the lead going a mile and a half...so strategy plays a big role. Orbs style of running will have him close simply because the fractions will be slow....Shug expects him to be laying off the first group of speed horses and if they weaken he'll be in a very good position to take advantage of it. TJ

[Cree]

Just a little correction, it is a 3 week break between the Preakness and Belmont.

[TJ]

Just a little correction, it is a 3 week break between the Preakness and Belmont.

Hi Cree,
Thanks for the correction...I don't have a lot of weeks left to waste...I will fix the error:>) TJ

[TJ]

Always in a Tiz will pass the Belmont to run in the Easy Goer. The good news is, with 14 in the field, they will need only one starting gate. TJ

[wgc517]

The weather is suppose to be cloudy all day on Saturday with a small chance of rain 10%. The rain is suppose to stop tonight. If that all holds true can they get the track to Fast or do you think it will good or worse?

[TJ]

The weather is suppose to be cloudy all day on Saturday with a small chance of rain 10%. The rain is suppose to stop tonight. If that all holds true can they get the track to Fast or do you think it will good or worse?

Hi wgc,
They will be getting the remnants of tropical storm Andrea all day Friday into early Saturday morning and expect 2 1/2 inches of rain. The forecast still calls for 40% chance of rain on and off most of the day Saturday. If they close the main track to training in the morning and work it, they may be able to dry it out provided the rain cooperates Saturday. It's also up to the wind and how much sun is breaking through the clouds whether it will be upgraded to "good" by the 1st race? Here's what NYRA has to say about it. TJ

http://www.drf.com/news/belmont-stakes- ... n-saturday

[wgc517]

TJ,

Curious who you are going with today. There are so many ways to go and some good long shots that could win.

I like Vyjack but am concerned about his last performance. After reading the article on Big Brown posted today and seeing that his trainer was associated with Big Brown's I have concerns. Maybe he had to be weaned off certain items before the derby and that cost him but will he get back up for this race.

I also like Freedom Child (carrying and extra 10 lbs) Icognito (carrying more weight) and Golden Soul.

Too many to like and not enough to throw out.

[TJ]

TJ,

Curious who you are going with today. There are so many ways to go and some good long shots that could win.

I like Vyjack but am concerned about his last performance. After reading the article on Big Brown posted today and seeing that his trainer was associated with Big Brown's I have concerns. Maybe he had to be weaned off certain items before the derby and that cost him but will he get back up for this race.

I also like Freedom Child (carrying and extra 10 lbs) Icognito (carrying more weight) and Golden Soul.

Too many to like and not enough to throw out.

Hi wgc,
It's a tough race and the changing track conditions won't help...currently listed muddy but seems to be drying out? I posted my picks in the other thread "official entries". They were Orb, Freedom Child, Palace Malice, Will Take Charge and a tumble to the filly Unlimited Budget. TJ

[Bill from WA]

Well, I'm a happy camper.

[dublino]

Congrats Bill, Mike Smith had a lot to do with it, the jockey on Orb is a clown and Revolutionary didn't get the best of rides.

What does it say about G Stevens is he the best ever or just shows up the lack of talent in the jockeys room.

Fernando Jarra
Raphael Bejarano
and you can soon add Joel Rosario

These lads come along win a few races and fall by the way side.

[Bill from WA]

I agree Dub, Mike gave this horse the best ride he could have in the situation he faced. The race unfolded just as I had hoped, and Mike was able to settle Palace Malice into stride, and he rated just fine this time (but you never know for sure).

Bill