Derby Trail '14: The Lecomte Stakes !

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Whirlaway
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Derby Trail '14: The Lecomte Stakes !

Postby Whirlaway » Sat Jan 11, 2014 2:53 pm

Good to be a handicappin’ again . . . pretty rusty, lookin’ forward to seein’ what I’ve got for em’ this Derby Trail – startin’ off with the Sham Stakes!

Inaugurated in 2001, the Sham Stakes is named for the racehorse Sham, winner of the 1973 Santa Anita Derby and remembered for his battles with Secretariat in that year's U.S. Triple Crown Races. Sham (April 9, 1970 – April 3, 1993), an American thoroughbred race horse, was one of the fastest horses of the 20th century, but was overshadowed by his larger-than-life peer and half-cousin, Secretariat. He was a dark seal brown in color. While racing, he wore green and yellow blinkers. His preferred running style was that of a stalker. He died of a heart attack on April 3, 1993, at the age 23. At autopsy, his heart was found to weigh 18 pounds, about twice the size of the average Thoroughbred heart. He is buried on the Walmac farm. (Wikipedia)

Onto the race.

Six horse field, trip will be of no excuse. Bias favors speed; bias for the week favors more speed.

Kristo. Distance fit, class fit, condition - hasn’t raced in more than two months - shows five works, a nice 47.3, last two at racing speed. Shows high early speed, determination and late drive. Positive figures, bias, pace, post, jock, weight, negative trainer. Should be tough on the inside.

I’ll Wrap It Up. Distance fit, class short of Kristo; condition fit - won his last slow 6fl, two sharp works. Don’t see early speed, determination. Negative figures, pace, jock, trainer; favorable bias, post, weight. Jock compromises chances.

Life is a Joy. Distance fit, came in at 27K class is tough to determine, appears short of Kristo. Condition fit - down in distance in last, maybe should have won that one; two works a nice 47.4. Don’t see determination in last three; Negative figures, bias, pace, track; favorable post, jock, weight, trainer. Interesting.

Ontology. Distance fit, appears class of the race but just broke Mdn; condition acceptable, no works. Don’t see early speed and determination. Negative figures, bias, pace, track, jock, trainer. Positive post, weight. Maybe can outclass the group.

Top Fortitude. Distance unfit; class undetermined; condition – hasn’t raced in 56 days, shows five works, none particularly noteworthy; Good early speed, determination, late drive. Positive figures, pace, weight. Negative bias, track, jock, trainer, post, AZ bred. Would be nice to see this 2k purchase run off with it!

Midnight Hawk. Interesting Dosage: DP = 0-1-3-2-0 (6) DI = 0.71 CD = -0.17. CD a distance fit; class undetermined; condition fit – three blistering Sudden Deaths works at SA. Shows high early speed, determination and late drive. Positive figures, pace, track, weight, jock, trainer, blinkers off. Negative, post, just broke Mdn. His Center of Distribution is not seen often and has Derby written all over it. Watchin' this one.

It’ll be interesting to see what Midnight Hawk has for em' second time out - dead fit blistering works. Kristo has the experience edge; it’ll be interesting to see if he is fit to fight.

Kristo
Midnight Hawk
Ontology
Last edited by Whirlaway on Sat Jan 18, 2014 12:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Whirlaway » Sat Jan 11, 2014 4:58 pm

From the Bloodhorse:

"Racing without blinkers for the first time, Midnight Hawk inched ahead outside for seven-eighths in 1:23.06, drifting in but finishing clear in a final time of 1:36.48 on the fast track. Ontology and I'll Wrap It Up completed the order of finish. Midnight Hawk paid $2.80 and $2.10 to win while Kristo brought $2.20 to place. There was no wagering to show. "

Sadler on Kristo: "We think he can get better; we think he wants to run farther," Sadler said. "That's not the style we wanted to run today, but when it came up sort of like a match race, you're drawn inside of the other guy, what are you going to do? We had to run head to head all the way around, but he ran well."

Baffert on Midnight Hawk: "He's still a little green, but I liked him a lot better without the blinkers," Baffert said. "He was waiting a little bit on horses but he came back, he didn't look like he was very tired. He wasn't blowing very hard, so that's a good sign. "He was showing up in the mornings, but you don't know until you do it. You hate to get everybody puffed up, but the way he worked his last couple times, it was like, he was pretty impressive."


Looks like Midnight Hawk has some lungs.

Good fun.

Ahhh . . . the Derby Trail !
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Postby Toccet02 » Sat Jan 11, 2014 7:54 pm

nice job, Whirlaway! I'm a Midnight Hawk fan after that. He runs like a quarter horse barrell racing, but can do a 1:36 mile.
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Midnight Hawk

Postby jagger » Sat Jan 11, 2014 9:11 pm

Another promising Midnight Lute!!! 8)

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Postby Whirlaway » Sun Jan 12, 2014 10:53 am

Thanks . . . no doubt a great deal of luck.

~

Fun race to watch http://www.chef-de-race.com/video/classic_preps/2014/2014_classic_prep_videos.htm

Interesting turn-of-foot for a horse with such a low Center of Distribution. It'll be interesting to see if he can stay tuned come soon enough; I have my doubts, but on the other hand, these stamina types may possess more stoutness when compared to their speedier brethren. I say one more then the SA Derby . . . Kristo appeared to be short of condition, maybe got a pressured trip on the inside, maybe a poor rail bias - should be dead fit come next out.

With respect to the handicappin', Ainslie said it decades ago: "In a truly run race a decided class advantage tells the tale. A genuinely superior horse wins if in shape to do so, regardless of running style." Midnight Hawk was dead fit but his class was undetermined. He proved his class, we'll see what he has for em' when he meets up with a horse equal in class and condition.

At this point in time Midnight Hawk leads the early Derby field with an RPF -57.
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4th generaton chefs

Postby stancaris » Tue Jan 14, 2014 3:36 pm

Whirlaway: Midnight Hawk was certainly impressive in his two starts and ran back to his great workouts. However from a dosage profile analysis he has no chefs at all in his first 3 generations. All his points come from his fourth generation sires (His Majesty a Classic chef, Round Table a solid chef and Fappiano an I/C chef. These fourth generation sires are certainly not the ones that dictate what Midnight Hawk is likely to be like. It is the sire and dam that contribute most of the genes to a runner. According to Lauren Stich, pedigree expert for American Turf Monthly etc the sire contributes distance ability to the offspring and the dam contributes class.

I interpret his profile to be mainly a sprinter as his sire Midnight Lute was a champion sprinter. Furthermore, he has shown big speed in both his races and has raced the last quarter of the last win in slow time (although running the first six furlongs in fast time). That type of precociousness usually spells disaster on the first Sat of May if he gets that far.

Midnight Lute is transmitting speed to his offspring and although speed is always dangerous in races up to 1 mile or even a mile and an eighth it remains to be seen if this monster of a racehorse can be rated off the pace and become a logical contender for the 10 furlong Derby in May.

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Re: 4th generaton chefs

Postby Whirlaway » Sat Jan 18, 2014 12:19 pm

stancaris wrote:Whirlaway: Midnight Hawk was certainly impressive in his two starts and ran back to his great workouts. However from a dosage profile analysis he has no chefs at all in his first 3 generations. All his points come from his fourth generation sires (His Majesty a Classic chef, Round Table a solid chef and Fappiano an I/C chef. These fourth generation sires are certainly not the ones that dictate what Midnight Hawk is likely to be like. It is the sire and dam that contribute most of the genes to a runner. According to Lauren Stich, pedigree expert for American Turf Monthly etc the sire contributes distance ability to the offspring and the dam contributes class.

I interpret his profile to be mainly a sprinter as his sire Midnight Lute was a champion sprinter. Furthermore, he has shown big speed in both his races and has raced the last quarter of the last win in slow time (although running the first six furlongs in fast time). That type of precociousness usually spells disaster on the first Sat of May if he gets that far.

Midnight Lute is transmitting speed to his offspring and although speed is always dangerous in races up to 1 mile or even a mile and an eighth it remains to be seen if this monster of a racehorse can be rated off the pace and become a logical contender for the 10 furlong Derby in May.


I agree the fourth generation sires may be remotely responsible for the performance of Midnight Hawk. I'm no pedigree expert but the sire of Midnight Lute, Real Quiet won the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Hollywood Gold Cup and came second in Belmont, Santa Anita Derby and the San Felipe S. - he proved he could go long, but he produced Midnight Lute.

I think this one will be interesting to watch. I'll reserve further comment until I see where they place him next out. I found some additional data on the speed/stamina characteristics in his pedigree here:

http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/sire_speed_2013.htm
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The Lecomte Stakes

Postby Whirlaway » Sat Jan 18, 2014 12:49 pm

The Lecomte Stakes ! is an American Thoroughbred horse race held at the Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans, Louisiana. It is a Grade III Stakes race for three-year old horses willing to run 1 mile and 70 yards on the dirt. It has also been raced at 8 furlongs and 8.5 furlongs. It offers a purse of $200,000, and is normally run in mid-January. Trainers use it as a prep race for the Louisiana Derby, and potentially the Kentucky Derby. The race is named in honor of one of the great Boston's best sons, Lecomte. Lecomte's dam was the brilliant Reel and he was half brother to Lexington. In 2006, the race had to be canceled as a result of Hurricane Katrina. (Wikipedia) Owner: Richard Ten Broeck Breeder: General Wells . . . named for Wells' friend Ambrose Lecomte of 'Magnolia', Natchitoches Parish., Louisiana. Lecomte died in 1857 from colic (Del Mar Pedigree)

Onto the race.

Nine of em’ going 1 mile 70 yards. Speed bias for the meet 67%, for the week 47%. Inside bias for the meet, no inside bias for the week. Interesting how the track Superintendent manipulated not only the track as a whole, but also the starting bias.

Roman Unbridled: Distance fit uncertain, class: winner at 28k, won last at 75k; condition acceptable, no works. Don’t see early speed, late drive. Negative: track, jockey, trainer. Positive: pace, post and weight. Distance ability unproven; short of class.

Rainbow Trip: Distance fit; class unfit; condition acceptable, one work. Don’t see early speed, determination, late drive. Negative: track, jockey, pace. Positive: post, trainer, weight. Short of class.

Got Shades: Distance fit, class fit, condition – hasn’t raced for over two months, shows five works, two bullets and a nice 47.8. Don’t see early speed, but shows good determination and good late drive; Positive: pace, post, jock, trainer. Negative: grass to dirt, troubled running style. Perplexing, but shows some class, likely short of condition.

Gold Hawk: Distance fit, class fit, condition fit; show good early speed, determination and late drive. Positive: track pace, post, jock switch, trainer, weight. Won last in big win style; 450k purchase. Best thus far.

Smarty’s Echo: Distance fit, class fit, condition –hasn’t raced in over two months, shows five excellent works on the surface. Don’t see early speed but shows good determination and some late drive. Positive: pace, post, jock switch, weight and blinkers on, gets the juice back. Negative: AWS to dirt, trainer. Goes w/blinkers; off/on Lasix, nice works, may be just short of condition.

Albano: Distance unfit, class fit, condition acceptable, two works since last race. Show good early speed, determination and late drive. Positive: track, pace, trainer. Negative: jock, post, weight. Looks ready to fire.

Vicars in Trouble: Distance unfit; class unknown, condition acceptable, two works since last race. Show high early speed, good determination and late drive. Positive: track, pace, jock, trainer, weight. Won last big win style, 80k purchase. Negative: post, LA bred. Will the Louisiana bred show up?

Silent Ruler: Distance fit, class unfit, condition fit. Don’t see early speed, determination, late drive. Positive: track, trainer, weight. Negative: jock, post, pace. Don’t see it.

Plug Catcher:
Distance fit, class fit, condition fit, two works since last race. Show some early speed, some determination and some late drive. Positive track, pace, trainer, weight. Negative: jock, post, blinkers off. Jock may compromise chances.

Synopsis: I thought for the most part this group was short of class, except for for the $450,000k purchase Gold Hawk. He has done all that has been asked of him and I believe he figures in this one. I think Smarty's Echo possesses some class and it'll be interesting to see how he performs after no Lasix / back to Lasix. I thought Albano and Vicar's In Trouble were in the hunt, but I had to nix em' because they hadn't run the distance.

Should be a fun race to watch.

Gold Hawk
Smarty’s Echo
Plug Catcher
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Vicars in Trouble

Postby hpkingjr » Sat Jan 18, 2014 1:43 pm

How could you pass on an Icecapade inbred with five strains of Bold Ruler?
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Postby Jeff » Sat Jan 18, 2014 7:10 pm

Whirlaway,

Thank You for the the thread, very interesting reading, and fun going and looking at your picks on the query.

I'm partial to Smarty's Echo, G1 placed 2 year old at 8 1/2F.

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Postby Whirlaway » Sat Jan 18, 2014 7:47 pm

Thanks, and henceforth, I'll remember to post a link to the past performances.
~
From the Bloodhorse:

With Rosie Napravnik showing the way, Vicar's in Trouble seized the lead early in the far turn and then opened up in the stretch to post a 6 3/4-length victory in the one-mile, 70-yard race for 3-year-olds. With the victory, Napravnik notched her third stakes win on the card while Vicar's in Trouble secured 10 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

"He certainly seemed to handle the distance with no problems," Napravnik said. "He's got natural speed which left our options open. The horse has been improving and I think he is still a little immature but I think he can move up a lot from this race."


Winchell Thoroughbreds' Gold Hawk rated in fourth throughout but could only improve one position entering the stretch to finish third, half a length behind Albano. The Empire Maker colt, sent off as the 6-5 favorite, is out of champion 2-year-old filly Caressing.


Nice piece of work by the connections of Vicar's In Trouble. From a handicapping perspective, he had the high early speed, determination and late drive . . . I doubted his distance ability, he proved it today. Looking forward to his RPF.

Here is the Equibase link to the Lecomte Stakes chart: http://www.equibase.com/yearbook/Result.cfm?tk=FG&rd=2014-01-18&rn=9&de=D&cy=USA

Additional data: 1/19

After video review, Vicar's In Trouble ran a good race, nice break from the gate, high early speed and dead game as Rosie had to grab a hold to him a bit goin' to the 5fl marker. As they were a turnin' for home it appeared Rosie positioned the horse three wide on the tractor tire impression on the track . . . nice ride, horse kicked up a bit of dust and showed good reserve.

Vicar's In Trouble
ran a RPF -32 in the Lecomte while Midnight Hawk ran the Sham in an RPF -57.


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