2014 Kentucky Derby

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Bill from WA
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2014 Kentucky Derby

Postby Bill from WA » Tue Feb 11, 2014 12:43 pm

Revised 2014 Kentucky Derby Pedigree Rankings

1) Top Billing
2) Puppy Manners (toss)
3) Shared Belief
4) Rum Point
5) Almost Famous
6) Icy Ride (toss)
7) Enterprising
8) Tonalist
9) Ami’s Holiday
10) Uncle Sigh
11) Bond Holder
12) Bayern
13) Classicgiacnroll
14) Laddie Boy
15) Midnight Hawk
16) Smart Cover
17) Mosler
18) Matuszak
19) Son Of A Preacher
20) Smarty’s Echo
21) Ride On Curlin
22) Cairo Prince
23) Honor Code
24) Cleburne
25) Commanding Curve

Add Tapiture.

Top Billing has, by far, the best distance pedigree (in my opinion)
Whether he has the talent to match remains to be seen. He’s worth keeping an eye on.
A few of these, with good distance pedigrees, may not have the talent to match.
Last edited by Bill from WA on Tue Feb 18, 2014 10:55 am, edited 3 times in total.
Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is like a broken winged bird that cannot fly.

Langston Hughes

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TJ
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Postby TJ » Tue Feb 11, 2014 9:54 pm

Hi Bill,
Thanks for posting your 3YO pedigree ratings list. Glad to see Top Billing at the top of your list.....we'll get to see what he's got on Feb. 22nd, in the GR II Fountain of Youth Stakes. I've been following a "sleeper" named Mosler. He's been stepping up his works recently and looks like he's getting ready for his 3YO debut. I was wondering what you thought of his pedigree to get a distance of ground? Regards, TJ

Bill from WA
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Posts: 1936
Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:20 am
Location: Mountlake Terrace, WA

Postby Bill from WA » Tue Feb 11, 2014 10:46 pm

Hi TJ

Nice horse. Must be a looker for that yearling price.
He would make the list that I posted. I evaluated about 150 3 year olds, and came up with the top 25. Mosler would definitely bump a horse off. I don't know why I missed this guy. I would rate him about mid pack pedigree wise. He looks to have some talent. I'll be interested to see how Top Billing fares against tougher company. He really has a superb distance pedigree.

Good luck.

Bill
Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is like a broken winged bird that cannot fly.



Langston Hughes

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Postby TJ » Wed Feb 12, 2014 7:22 am

Bill from WA wrote:Hi TJ

Nice horse. Must be a looker for that yearling price.
He would make the list that I posted. I evaluated about 150 3 year olds, and came up with the top 25. Mosler would definitely bump a horse off. I don't know why I missed this guy. I would rate him about mid pack pedigree wise. He looks to have some talent. I'll be interested to see how Top Billing fares against tougher company. He really has a superb distance pedigree.

Good luck.

Bill

Hi Bill,
Thanks for your assessment of Mosler. He seems to be late getting to the Derby party, having only broken his maiden, but may prove a factor down the road if he develops properly as a 3YO? There's an allowance race for him on the same day and same distance as the Fountain of Youth....might be a good spot to start him off?
Looking forward to the Fountain of Youth. There are a few real nice horses nominated including Commissioner, Casiguapo, C. Zee, Conquest Titan, General A Rod, Almost Famous and Wildcat Red. TJ

stancaris
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commissioner

Postby stancaris » Thu Feb 13, 2014 11:50 am

Bill: What is your assessment of Commissioner as a Derby candidate?

He has already won two races at 9 furlongs and has AP Indy as his sire and Belmont winner, Touch Gold as his broodmare sire. In addition he carries the strong conduit mare, Frizette in tail-female.

Bill from WA
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Postby Bill from WA » Thu Feb 13, 2014 1:01 pm

Hi Stan

Commissioner is just outside my top 25. Being by AP Indy, he certainly figures to go a route of ground but I feel he has limitations beyond 9 furlongs His conduit mare is Heather Belle (1915) (2f) (C)
not Frizette. That's where he tails off somewhat. Heather Belle is not a huge conduit for horses that can get 10 furlongs or more.
All that being said, he might just jump up and prove me wrong.

Best to you.

Bill
Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is like a broken winged bird that cannot fly.



Langston Hughes

Bill from WA
Breeder's Cup Contender
Posts: 1936
Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:20 am
Location: Mountlake Terrace, WA

Postby Bill from WA » Mon Mar 10, 2014 4:05 pm

Revised 2014 Kentucky Derby Pedigree Rankings

1) Ring Weekend (0.23)
2) Enterprising (0.24)
3) Ami’s Holiday (0.30)
4) Uncle Sigh (0.30)
5) Classicgiacnroll (0.32)
6) California Chrome (0.32)
7) Laddie Boy (0.34)
8) Smart Cover (0.34)
9) Midnight Hawk (0.34)
10) Matuszak (0.36)
11) Son Of A Preacher (0.36)
12) Smarty’s Echo ((0.36)
13) Kobe’s Back (0.37)
14) Tapiture (0.37)
15) Ride On Curlin (0.37)
16) Cairo Prince (0.38)
17) Honor Code (0.38)
18) Cleburne (0.38)
19) Commanding Curve (0.39)
20) Arctic Slope (0.40)
21) Havana (0.40)
22) Candy Boy (0.40)
23) General A Rod (0.41)
24) Intense Holiday (0.42)
25) Samraat (0.48)

A few of these runners with distance pedigrees, may not have the talent to match.
Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is like a broken winged bird that cannot fly.



Langston Hughes

Bill from WA
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Posts: 1936
Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:20 am
Location: Mountlake Terrace, WA

Postby Bill from WA » Fri Mar 14, 2014 2:28 pm

Social Inclusion (0.27)
Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is like a broken winged bird that cannot fly.



Langston Hughes

Cree
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Postby Cree » Fri Mar 14, 2014 3:15 pm

Hi Bill from WA,
Could you please explain the system. I am assuming the lower the number the better. I am interested. Thanks!

Bill from WA
Breeder's Cup Contender
Posts: 1936
Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:20 am
Location: Mountlake Terrace, WA

Postby Bill from WA » Fri Mar 14, 2014 3:25 pm

Hi Cree

It's pretty involved. If you would email me privately I could explain further.
My method investigates the female family influences within the first 4 generations.

[email protected]

Bill
Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is like a broken winged bird that cannot fly.



Langston Hughes