Okay, so maybe it isn't a curse:>)....but it does have merit. I believe it revolves around soundness issues and conditioning. If a horse doesn't get to the races as a 2YO, there is usually an underlying soundness issue. Certain issues which prevent these horses from debuting as 2YO's can be overcome after the Derby and have a fruitful late 3YO and older campaign, like Curlin and Forego. Others like Bodemeister, Dunkirk and Verrazano fell apart.
This year we lost Constitution to the curse, though still have one left trying to break Apollo's curse....Hoppertunity being the last "cursed" one left. Although they didn't make the dance, I believe Social Inclusion and Bayern fell short because of the conditioning lost by missing their 2 YO campaign. It will be interesting to see these two race back in the Preakness....since both were rushed to make the Derby. The time off between now and the Preakness could afford them both an opportunity to play TC spoiler. Since 1937 here is the race record of the 58 horses who ran in the Derby and never started as a 2YO....58-0-3-4.
Any comments or thoughts you have concerning the curse of Apollo (:>)), would be appreciated. Can you think of certain other reasons for this phenomenon in the Derby? Will Hoppertunity overcome the curse...did Baffert race this horse enough as a 3YO to afford him a stronger foundation then other 3YO's who attempted the Derby without a race as a 2YO? Apollo raced 3 times as a 3YO prior to his Derby upset then had a banner season as a 3YO in 21-10-7-3 and earned $14,030 in 1882:>). TJ
The Curse of Apollo
Moderators: Roguelet, hpkingjr, WaveMaster, K~2
Re: The Curse of Apollo
The stats seem overwhelming however, when I think of Curlin, HOY, in 2007 I think differently. He was shuffled back to 14th in the first call of that Derby and made a bold move to run third. Two weeks later he wins the Preakness over Derby winner, Street Sense.
In my opinion, he lost the Derby because of racing luck. He had to steady slightly in the first eighth of a mile and that big field of horses did him in. I do not believe it was lack of racing experience at two that caused him to lose the Derby. If that was the case how come two weeks later he captures the Preakness?
So, with Curlin I have the above thoughts. As far as the other 57 losers, maybe a lack of foundation did them in.
In my opinion, he lost the Derby because of racing luck. He had to steady slightly in the first eighth of a mile and that big field of horses did him in. I do not believe it was lack of racing experience at two that caused him to lose the Derby. If that was the case how come two weeks later he captures the Preakness?
So, with Curlin I have the above thoughts. As far as the other 57 losers, maybe a lack of foundation did them in.
Re: The Curse of Apollo
stancaris wrote:The stats seem overwhelming however, when I think of Curlin, HOY, in 2007 I think differently. He was shuffled back to 14th in the first call of that Derby and made a bold move to run third. Two weeks later he wins the Preakness over Derby winner, Street Sense.
In my opinion, he lost the Derby because of racing luck. He had to steady slightly in the first eighth of a mile and that big field of horses did him in. I do not believe it was lack of racing experience at two that caused him to lose the Derby. If that was the case how come two weeks later he captures the Preakness?
So, with Curlin I have the above thoughts. As far as the other 57 losers, maybe a lack of foundation did them in.
Hi Stan,
I agree with you, the stats do seem overwhelming. If it wasn't for the patience and horsemanship of Helen Pitts, we might never have know Curlin's name. Curlin was plagued by sore shins throughout his 2YO season and Helen did a great job to get him sound and to the races when she did. Curlin lost valuable 2YO foundation/development because of this. It is this foundation that a horse draws on to persevere and bounce back through a tough 3 YO Triple Crown campaign. It also helps ward off the "bounce" theory...which after 4 races in a span of 3 months and 3 days and topping it off with running 1 1/4 miles for the first time in his short career, could also be the reason he was beaten 8 lengths in the Derby? Seems more likely then "racing luck" in my opinion....which is another "curse" every Derby runner must deal with in such a large field, but that is to be expected? TJ
Re: The Curse of Apollo
TJ: Here is an example worth analyzing. In 2012 Bodemeister, the Derby favorite was an unraced 2 year old who didn't break his maiden until Feb 11th. He then went on to win the San Felipe and Ark Derby with big speed ratings. However, in the Derby he set a wicked pace of going 6 furlongs in 1:09 4/5. He led the field at the eighth pole by three lengths but tired in the last sixteenth of a mile and got beat by I'll Have Another. Bodemeister ran the last quarter mile of the Derby in 27 1/5 seconds.
You might look at the above result and say because he did not run as a 2 year old he lost the KY Derby at age three.
I interpret this differently. I say he lost the Derby because he set a blazing pace that took a lot out of him making him weaken in the last furlong. It takes a great horse to pass the six furlong marker of the Derby in 109 4/5 and still be winning the roses in the last furlong. The only horse to do such a feat I believe was Spend A Buck in 1985 who went 6 furlongs in 109 3/5 on the Bill Daly and finished the Derby in 200 1/5 which is the third fastest Derby winning time in history (behind Secretariat and Northern Dancer).
If Bodemeister was capable of being rated off the pace in 111 and change, that Derby might have been a completely different outcome. His biggest negative was not the fact he did not race as 2 year old but the fact that he was a need the lead type horse. Those types almost never win the roses.
When Fusaichi Pegasus won the roses in 2000 he was very close to being an unlaced 2 year old. He made his first start on Dec 11, 2000 only 21 days earlier of being an unlaced 2 year old. He certainly had very little foundation as a 2 year old with only that maiden start in which he finished 2nd.
Still, the evidence seems overwhelmingly negative against any runner with no foundation of races at age 2. It will take a very strong, powerful horse to overcome such an obstacle. Will Hoppertunity be such a horse? Who knows, but at least at this point he has the Opportunity to try.
You might look at the above result and say because he did not run as a 2 year old he lost the KY Derby at age three.
I interpret this differently. I say he lost the Derby because he set a blazing pace that took a lot out of him making him weaken in the last furlong. It takes a great horse to pass the six furlong marker of the Derby in 109 4/5 and still be winning the roses in the last furlong. The only horse to do such a feat I believe was Spend A Buck in 1985 who went 6 furlongs in 109 3/5 on the Bill Daly and finished the Derby in 200 1/5 which is the third fastest Derby winning time in history (behind Secretariat and Northern Dancer).
If Bodemeister was capable of being rated off the pace in 111 and change, that Derby might have been a completely different outcome. His biggest negative was not the fact he did not race as 2 year old but the fact that he was a need the lead type horse. Those types almost never win the roses.
When Fusaichi Pegasus won the roses in 2000 he was very close to being an unlaced 2 year old. He made his first start on Dec 11, 2000 only 21 days earlier of being an unlaced 2 year old. He certainly had very little foundation as a 2 year old with only that maiden start in which he finished 2nd.
Still, the evidence seems overwhelmingly negative against any runner with no foundation of races at age 2. It will take a very strong, powerful horse to overcome such an obstacle. Will Hoppertunity be such a horse? Who knows, but at least at this point he has the Opportunity to try.
Re: The Curse of Apollo
stancaris wrote:TJ: Here is an example worth analyzing. In 2012 Bodemeister, the Derby favorite was an unraced 2 year old who didn't break his maiden until Feb 11th. He then went on to win the San Felipe and Ark Derby with big speed ratings. However, in the Derby he set a wicked pace of going 6 furlongs in 1:09 4/5. He led the field at the eighth pole by three lengths but tired in the last sixteenth of a mile and got beat by I'll Have Another. Bodemeister ran the last quarter mile of the Derby in 27 1/5 seconds.
You might look at the above result and say because he did not run as a 2 year old he lost the KY Derby at age three.
I interpret this differently. I say he lost the Derby because he set a blazing pace that took a lot out of him making him weaken in the last furlong. It takes a great horse to pass the six furlong marker of the Derby in 109 4/5 and still be winning the roses in the last furlong. The only horse to do such a feat I believe was Spend A Buck in 1985 who went 6 furlongs in 109 3/5 on the Bill Daly and finished the Derby in 200 1/5 which is the third fastest Derby winning time in history (behind Secretariat and Northern Dancer).
If Bodemeister was capable of being rated off the pace in 111 and change, that Derby might have been a completely different outcome. His biggest negative was not the fact he did not race as 2 year old but the fact that he was a need the lead type horse. Those types almost never win the roses.
When Fusaichi Pegasus won the roses in 2000 he was very close to being an unlaced 2 year old. He made his first start on Dec 11, 2000 only 21 days earlier of being an unlaced 2 year old. He certainly had very little foundation as a 2 year old with only that maiden start in which he finished 2nd.
Still, the evidence seems overwhelmingly negative against any runner with no foundation of races at age 2. It will take a very strong, powerful horse to overcome such an obstacle. Will Hoppertunity be such a horse? Who knows, but at least at this point he has the Opportunity to try.
Hi Stan,
Interesting discussion with differing interpretations, which is racing in a nutshell:>). Bodemeister was my top choice in the Derby that season...I really thought he'd break the curse. When he showed me a final 1/8th in 11.97 in the Arkansas Derby I was convinced. As it turned out, his 2nd place finish was very good in the Derby....but he wasn't going to beat I'll Have Another, as was proved out in the Preakness at a shorter distance (which should have been to his advantage)....outcome remained the same. That Preakness defeat also signaled Bodemeister's final race....typical of 2 hard races chasing TC glory when you miss your 2YO season. in the case of Curlin, he was ready to run twice as a 2YO but they had to pull the plug both times. He was well handled by Pitts and fitter then the average 3YO who missed his 2YO campaign. Unfortunately for Helen, she got him to the races with just enough time to get him sold out from under her and to make the Derby in other hands. The conditioning he received as a 2YO, even though he never started because his shins gave out...helped him to go forward after the TC races. I believe he continued to get better as he got older because of his work as a 2YO.
In Fusaichi Pegasus' case, it isn't so much that he almost missed being an unraced 2YO....it is the fact he had the months of conditioning prior in order to be prepared to race as a 2YO. It is these months of work, foundation and conditioning that others who never raced as a 2YO are lacking. Not only that, these 2YO's have been through many ailments along the way and have overcome them to get to the races as a 2YO. Ailments that those who didn't run at 2 are yet to encounter. In my opinion, soundness is as big an issue as foundation when they miss their 2YO season. TJ