post positions 1 and 2

Post and discuss your picks and selections here.

Moderators: Roguelet, hpkingjr, WaveMaster, K~2

stancaris
Restricted Stakes Winner
Posts: 763
Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:24 am

Re: post positions 1 and 2

Postby stancaris » Fri Apr 25, 2014 12:02 pm

Here is a stat that strikes home my point. Since 1930 when the electric starting gate was first used there has been ONLY 1 Derby winner from post position number 1 when the field size is 18 or higher. Since 1930 there were 28 Derbies which had a field size of 18 or more horses. That's 3.6% winners from the one post if the field size is 18 or higher.

So from 28 Derbies with the starting gate carrying 18 or more runners ONLY 1 winner--War Admiral in 1937. It took a Triple Crown Winner to be the only Derby winner from the 1 post when the field size is 18 or higher.

This above point carries clout for the Derby in modern times when the starting gate almost always has 18 or more runners and most often 20 runners.

In my opinion handicappers will be making the wrong decision if they wager to win on a horse that gets the dreaded 1 post position. Its probably not even a safe place to be.

From 1930 -2013 there have been 28 Derbies run with 18 or more starters. ONLY 1 horse ever captured such a Derby from the 2 post and that was Cannonade in 1974. The percentage of post 2 winners when the field size is 18 or higher is also a weak 3.6% (1 of 28).

The field size this year is likely to be 20 horses, the 1 and 2 posts are bad propositions.

User avatar
TJ
Darley line
Posts: 6236
Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 7:54 am
Location: FL, NY

Re: post positions 1 and 2

Postby TJ » Fri Apr 25, 2014 12:06 pm

stancaris wrote:Here is a stat that strikes home my point. Since 1930 when the electric starting gate was first used there has been ONLY 1 Derby winner from post position number 1 when the field size is 18 or higher. Since 1930 there were 28 Derbies which had a field size of 18 or more horses. That's 3.6% winners from the one post if the field size is 18 or higher.

So from 28 Derbies with the starting gate carrying 18 or more runners ONLY 1 winner--War Admiral in 1937. It took a Triple Crown Winner to be the only Derby winner from the 1 post when the field size is 18 or higher.

This above point carries clout for the Derby in modern times when the starting gate almost always has 18 or more runners and most often 20 runners.

In my opinion handicappers will be making the wrong decision if they wager to win on a horse that gets the dreaded 1 post position. Its probably not even a safe place to be.

From 1930 -2013 there have been 28 Derbies run with 18 or more starters. ONLY 1 horse ever captured such a Derby from the 2 post and that was Cannonade in 1974. The percentage of post 2 winners when the field size is 18 or higher is also a weak 3.6% (1 of 28).

The field size this year is likely to be 20 horses, the 1 and 2 posts are bad propositions.

Hi Stan,
I though the stat was 15 or more in your original post (which there were more 1 and 2 posts that won under that stat)...I give, you win. feel like I'm in a revolving door of stat changes:>) TJ

stancaris
Restricted Stakes Winner
Posts: 763
Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:24 am

Re: post positions 1 and 2

Postby stancaris » Fri Apr 25, 2014 12:29 pm

In the last decade the field size is always 18 to 20. Why not look at the data according to what is likely to be the field size this year, not the field sizes of long ago. Now they even have also eligibles to produce a better chance that the field size will be 20 a week from Saturday.

Field size is extremely important in the Derby and 7 of those winners from the 1 post achieved their win when the field size was under 18 horses.

Year after year when the trainers and owners had a choice of selecting their post positions the number 1 post was invariably picked as their 20th choice. They avoided the number 1 post like a plague.

Those numbers you posted which illustrate percentages for 83 years of Derbies could very well be misleading to a novice capper. HMMM! 9.6% winners from the 1 post. They may conclude from that data that the 1 post is actually an advantage in the Derby (Not knowing that 7 of the winners occurred when the field size was under 18 horses)

User avatar
TJ
Darley line
Posts: 6236
Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 7:54 am
Location: FL, NY

Re: post positions 1 and 2

Postby TJ » Fri Apr 25, 2014 12:47 pm

Hi Stan,
As I said, I got off at the last stop....ready for a new angle that could be foolproof? The last three Derby winner's name started with a vowel? This year, if they break from the auxiliary gate I'm in:>) TJ

stancaris
Restricted Stakes Winner
Posts: 763
Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:24 am

Re: post positions 1 and 2

Postby stancaris » Mon Apr 28, 2014 5:35 pm

To all: Also, in field sizes of 18 or more there was never a winner from the 3 post.

User avatar
TJ
Darley line
Posts: 6236
Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 7:54 am
Location: FL, NY

Re: post positions 1 and 2

Postby TJ » Mon Apr 28, 2014 5:52 pm

In Kentucky Derby history, there has never been a winner to break out of post position 17....although Forty Niner did run 2nd. TJ

stancaris
Restricted Stakes Winner
Posts: 763
Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:24 am

Re: post positions 1 and 2

Postby stancaris » Tue Apr 29, 2014 3:31 am

In the history of the Derby from 1930-2013 there was only 1 winner from the 4 post position when the field size was 18 or more. That winner was Super Saver in 2010.

jagger
Grade III Winner
Posts: 1119
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2005 3:49 pm
Location: Peoria, Illinois

Re: post positions 1 and 2

Postby jagger » Tue Apr 29, 2014 7:37 am

BOY!!!! I thought I was a numbers guy!!!! You guys are incredible!!!