buck in the X

[stancaris]

Patuxet: Did Colonel Bradley also combine the fast final quarters with the presence of superior stallions in the X passing position?

[DDT]

Stan

I am curious, out of the 17 articles written by you and published by American Turf Monthly concerning handicapping the Derby and/or the Triple Crown over the years, how many of those mention or discuss the presence of superior stallions in the X passing position?

DDT

[Patuxet]

The Colonel would appear to be far too wily and wise to be taken in by voodoo genetics.

[TJ]

Patuxet: Did Colonel Bradley also combine the fast final quarters with the presence of superior stallions in the X passing position?

In his day he used his superior handicapping knowledge to actually put it to other use then to pick a Derby winner. He bred Derby winners. I just remember handicapping many winners using final speed since that was presented to me from Tom Ainslie in the late 60's. A very good handicapper himself....just wasn't sure if it was the Colonel or someone else who Ainslie named as the first to present it as a most valid handicapping factor. The Colonel was a very sharp handicapper and it served him well, as did the prowess of the speed boys (Julie Fink and Woody Stephens) who put Woody Stephens on the map with his ability to pick and claim winners, who were trained by Woody. They were so good together Julie Fink was barred as an owner and was forced to sell off his stock. Woody went on to bigger and better things off the reputation he made winning so many races with Julie Fink's horses. Woody then took over Royce Martin's horses, another who liked to win a bet and they did well together. Fink later launched a successful lawsuit and had his owners license reinstated and the speed boys were back in action again:>) TJ

[TJ]

The Colonel would appear to be far too wily and wise to be taken in by voodoo genetics.

Hi Patuxet,
Thanks for answering the question I posed about final speed, funny I can't remember what I had for breakfast but can remember the day I started calculating final speed numbers:>). I was wondering if you still have a copy of Ainslie's book? Have you ever been to ER Bradley's Saloon on Clematis St. in WPB? TJ

[Patuxet]

TJ: I have 2 copies of Ainslie's book: a 6th Printing of the original 1968 Red Cover edition and a Gold Cover 1979 Revised Edition. Meet me at ER Bradley's Saloon and I'll give you one.

Allison

[TJ]

TJ: I have 2 copies of Ainslie's book: a 6th Printing of the original 1968 Red Cover edition and a Gold Cover 1979 Revised Edition. Meet me at ER Bradley's Saloon and I'll give you one.

Allison

Hi Patuxet,
That sounds like a good idea, but I'll buy:>) TJ

[stancaris]

Patuxet: You said, "The Colonel would appear to be too wily and wise to be taken in by voodoo genetics."

So, you are saying that my angle on the Derby, Preakness etc which combines Buckpasser in the X with a fast final finish in a major prep race is voodoo genetics.

You have no evidence whatsoever for your claim above that my Buckpasser method is voodoo genetics.

I have clearly shown that statistically there is a clear cut edge in all three Triple Crown races when using such an angle. In fact the impact values and ROIs are strong in all three events with reference to Buckpasser in the X plus a fast final 3/8 and or quarter.

In fact this years Preakness winner, California Chrome and the second place finisher, Ride On Curlin, both qualified on this angle and they were the only two horses in the Preakness that fit the angle.

When you make a claim that someone's angle is using voodoo genetics you should at least have some evidence to back up such a claim. You have offered no evidence at all.

[Pan Zareta]

When you make a claim that someone's angle is using voodoo genetics you should at least have some evidence to back up such a claim. You have offered no evidence at all.

"Voodoo science" is a term commonly used to describe claims based on research that doesn't follow the scientific method. Your apparent hypothesis is that something on Buckpasser's x is of major relevance to this angle. Your highly selective limited sampling offers little in the way of circumstance based support for that hypothesis which could never be proven from circumstance based evidence alone and, as you've been informed but seem unwilling to accept, the more important genome-based evidence does not support it. So "voodoo genetics" is an accurate characterization.

How did the horses with Buckpasser in exclusively non x-passing 5 gen. pedigree positions that have won or finished 2d or 3d in the TC races do on this angle?

[TJ]

When you make a claim that someone's angle is using voodoo genetics you should at least have some evidence to back up such a claim. You have offered no evidence at all.

"Voodoo science" is a term commonly used to describe claims based on research that doesn't follow the scientific method. Your apparent hypothesis is that something on Buckpasser's x is of major relevance to this angle. Your highly selective limited sampling offers little in the way of circumstance based support for that hypothesis which could never be proven from circumstance based evidence alone and, as you've been informed but seem unwilling to accept, the more important genome-based evidence does not support it. So "voodoo genetics" is an accurate characterization.

How did the horses with Buckpasser in exclusively non x-passing 5 gen. pedigree positions that have won or finished 2d or 3d in the TC races do on this angle?

Hi Pan,
What I found interesting the last couple years is the resurgence of the Bold Ruler sire. Seems to be attempting a comeback with his Derby and TC runners from the grave:>) Two years in a row, the Bold Ruler sire line won the Roses. Orb last year and California Chrome this year winning both the Derby and the Preakness. I might add the 2nd place finisher in this year's Derby, Commanding Curve also carries the Bold Ruler sire line. Another strong Derby Contender, who had to miss the Derby due to injury was Constitution, he too is a Bold Ruler sire line colt. In his hay day (pun intended:>) Bold Ruler was most impressive in the 70's, his sire line winning the run for the Roses 5 consecutive years, 1973 to 1977. In 1973-1979 the Bold Ruler sire line won 13 of the 21 total TC races during that 7 year period. Then came a 5 year drought till Swale won the Derby in 1984. Then a fall from grace, until the last two years. TJ

[jagger]

Does Ria Antonia not have Buckpasser in the X position?

[Pan Zareta]

What I found interesting the last couple years is the resurgence of the Bold Ruler sire. Seems to be attempting a comeback with his Derby and TC runners from the grave:>) Two years in a row, the Bold Ruler sire line won the Roses. Orb last year and California Chrome this year winning both the Derby and the Preakness. I might add the 2nd place finisher in this year's Derby, Commanding Curve also carries the Bold Ruler sire line. Another strong Derby Contender, who had to miss the Derby due to injury was Constitution, he too is a Bold Ruler sire line colt. In his hay day (pun intended:>) Bold Ruler was most impressive in the 70's, his sire line winning the run for the Roses 5 consecutive years, 1973 to 1977. In 1973-1979 the Bold Ruler sire line won 13 of the 21 total TC races during that 7 year period. Then came a 5 year drought till Swale won the Derby in 1984. Then a fall from grace, until the last two years. TJ

Bold Ruler's occurrence in pedigree top line does seem to be increasing, largely via the progeny of AP Indy, his sons & grandsons. What I don't think anyone back in the glory days of Bold Ruler's sons saw coming was that Boldnesian would eventually be the main conduit for his sire's tail male descendancy. Imo, one of the most inscrutable aspects of TB breeding is where and why those descendancies bottleneck/re-expand.

Does Ria Antonia not have Buckpasser in the X position?

Yes, dam side, 5th gen.

[Matchemforever]

How do you even derive the idea it's Buckpasser's X? Not for Love traces back, dam line, to Striking. So if passed by the dam on to the daughter, Buckpasser is not involved. Chase It Down, second dam of CC, could have gotten the "X" via Polish Numbers, if you believe he had it, via either Striking or Buckpasser. Or maybe Intriguing's (Polish Numbers) sire Swaps had the "X" factor. (His dam line has War Admiral) But Chase the Dream, CC's third dam, goes back to Princess Matoaka, by an alleged "X" sire Princequillo. How do you determine which "x" is involved in this alleged theory?

[stancaris]

Pan Zareta wrote: "Your apparent hypothesis is that something on the X is of major relevance to this angle."

Yes, I do think that some genes on the X are important to this angle and my stats support this view. Having Buckpasser in the X passing position is an advantage to horses running in the Derby, Preakness and Belmont stakes if the horse also shows a fast final 3/8 in a major 9 furlong prep race. If one uses only my fast final 3/8 for any horse running in the Derby the impact value is 2.32 whereas if that fast final 3/8 angle is combined with Buckpasser in the X the impact value goes up strongly to around 2.90. Furthermore, the impact value for finishing second in the Derby is a powerful 5.56. Horses with Buckpasser in the X passing position who run a fast final 3/8 are winning the roses around 3 times more often than statistical expectation and are running second in the run for the roses more than 5 times more often than statistical expectation. Having Buckpasser in that position is an advantage in the Derby. The reasons for the advantage may be many but the fact that its the X passing position certainly makes one ponder the possibility that the X might have a role in that success.

Your hypothesis that the X is at best only a minor role player in broodmare sire success is nuts.

[DDT]

Stan

Considering the fact that to find Buckpasser in a 5 generation pedigree of elite runners in any other position than an X passing position is very rare it is almost certain that the X passing position is the only way he will be represented. You are the one that is nuts if you think that genes carried on Buckpasser's X are a primary or important reason for his success as a broodmare sire. The odds are astronomical that the thousands of genes carried on the other 31 chromosomes passed forward by him are somehow less important than any genes provided by his X. In this year for the Kentucky Derby there were 10 horses that had Buckpasser in an X passing position, did you wager on all 10?

DDT