buck in the X

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Re: buck in the X

Postby hpkingjr » Thu May 08, 2014 9:45 pm

The equivalents in California Chrome's pedigree:

http://www.pedigreequery.com/index.php? ... d=&x=0&y=0
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Re: buck in the X

Postby TJ » Fri May 09, 2014 7:30 am

I don't know if anyone read this, but Bill from WA went through all of California Chrome's Conduit Mares, in discussing CC's ability to go the Derby distance. If you missed it, it is worth your time to go to the thread titled "The GR I Santa Anita Derby" and read what Bill had to offer us through his "Modern Conduit Mare Theory". TJ

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Re: buck in the X

Postby Bill from WA » Fri May 09, 2014 11:03 am

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Re: buck in the X

Postby Patuxet » Sun May 11, 2014 10:01 am

Somethingroyal is multiple female influence in CC and there's no underestimating her proven ability to power a pedigree.
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Re: buck in the X

Postby stancaris » Sun May 11, 2014 10:25 am

California Chrome is 5X5 to Buckpasser and both of those positions are in the X passing position. We know that such inbreeding is successful. Super Saver has very similar 5X5 to Buckpasser in the X.

In fact, both the Peter Pan winner and second place finisher carried Buckpasser in the X passing position. Tonalist has Buckpasser as his third damsire and Commissioner's Broodmare sire, Touch Gold is a maternal grandson of Buckpasser.

In fact the winner, the second place finisher, and the fourth place finisher of this years Kentucky Derby all carried Buckpasser in the X passing position. California Chrome, Commanding Curve, and Wicked Strong.

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Re: buck in the X

Postby Pan Zareta » Sun May 11, 2014 2:49 pm

stancaris wrote:In fact the winner, the second place finisher, and the fourth place finisher of this years Kentucky Derby all carried Buckpasser in the X passing position. California Chrome, Commanding Curve, and Wicked Strong.

So did the 7th, 9th, 14th, 15th, 18th, and last place finishers in this year's KD.

There is no good reason for limiting focus to x passing positions when speculating about Buckpasser's influence in the pedigree of KD winners. Not only has his closest presence in KD winner pedigrees actually occurred in the non-x passing 2d sire position but looking only at the x turns a blind eye to 95% of the equine nuclear genome including ECA18 on which several variants of major relevance to aptitude have been reported in the TB by multiple research teams. California Chrome's has 3 x's of Buckpasser (6Sx5Dx5d). I've little doubt that he's one of the contributors to CC's ability to get a G1 win at 10f but the genetic factors most relevant to that ability are not on the x.

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Re: buck in the X

Postby DDT » Sun May 11, 2014 5:32 pm

posted in error

DDT

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Re: buck in the X

Postby stancaris » Sun May 11, 2014 5:40 pm

Pan Zareta wrote: "Not only has his closest presence in Kentucky Derby winner pedigrees actually occurred in the non X passing 2nd sire position" …….

The above is a very unfair comparison because there are 23 non X passing positions by way of stallions found in a 5 generation pedigree whereas there are ONLY 7 stallions in a 5 generation pedigree that can pass on a part of Buckpasser's X.

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Re: buck in the X

Postby TJ » Sun May 11, 2014 5:59 pm

DDT wrote:posted in error

DDT

Hi DDT,
Whew, good catch....I hate it when that happens:>) TJ

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Re: buck in the X

Postby stancaris » Sun May 11, 2014 8:00 pm

Pan Zareta wrote: "There is no good reason for limiting focus to X passing positions when speculating about Buckpasser's influence in the pedigrees of Derby winners."

Yes, there is. My Derby angle combining Buckpasser with final fractions of major prep races at 9 furlongs comes up with strong impact values and ROIs as follows:

Since 1978 when the first qualifier on this angle raced in the Derby (Believe It who ran third behind Affirmed) horses that qualified on this angle have won 6 of 19 Derbies for a win rate of 31.6%. Since the percent of qualifiers on this factor is only 8.6%, the impact value is a strong 3.67. Horses who carry Buckpasser in the X passing position are winning the roses approximately 3 1/2 times more often than statistical expectation. In addition, the ROI on all qualifiers produces a strong profit of 85.9%. There were only 29 qualifiers thru history and the six winning qualifiers returned $107.80. Since 29 qualifiers times $2 each costs $58, the profit on the six winners is 49.80. Profit over investment equals ROI (49.80 divided by 58 equals .8586 or 85.9% ROI.

Furthermore, since 1978 there have been 8 qualifiers on this method that raced second in the Derby. Since 8 of 19 years equals 42% place finishers the impact value for place is an extraordinary 4.88. Horses with Buckpasser in the X who also qualified on my final fraction angle are running second in the Derby almost 5 times more often than statistical expectation.

You can say there is no good reason for focusing on Buckpasser's X chromosome in the pedigree of Derby winners but the cash is very green when one goes to the window to collect on these winners. Similar results to the above also occur in the Preakness and Belmont stakes where my Buckpasser plus final fraction indicators have a strong impact value and strong ROIs.

A few recent Derby winners that exemplify this angle: Super Saver in 2010, Orb in 2013 and California Chrome in 2014.

A few recent Preakness winners that fit this angle: Shackleford 2011, Funny Cide 2003, Real Quiet 1998.

A few recent Belmont winners that fit the Buckpasser angle: Drosselmeyer 2010 who paid 28 bucks, Summer Bird 2009 who paid 25.80, Lemon Drop Kid 1999 who paid 61.50.

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Re: buck in the X

Postby Pan Zareta » Sun May 11, 2014 10:29 pm

stancaris wrote:The above is a very unfair comparison..

You're right but the fact that, among KD winner pedigrees, Buckpasser occurs about twice as often in non-x passing as in x passing positions is an indicator of the fact that the x is more incidental than material to the angle here. Damside pedigrees, where all the x passing positions are for males, are where the diversity usually is in the pedigree. It's easier to stand out there, especially for a performer of Buckpasser's caliber in a group of horses running a 10f G1 race.

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Re: buck in the X

Postby stancaris » Mon May 12, 2014 2:07 am

Pan Zareta wrote: "It's easier to standout there, especially for a performer of Buckpasser's caliber in a group of horses running in a 10F Grade 1 race."

So, do you now agree with me that my angle outlined above which combines Buckpasser in the X with fast final fractions in a 9 furlong prep race is an advantage for horses running in the Derby?

Or, do you still hold to the extreme conclusion that at best the X chromosome plays only a minor role in broodmare sire success?

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Re: buck in the X

Postby Pan Zareta » Mon May 12, 2014 9:04 pm

stancaris wrote:So, do you now agree with me that my angle outlined above which combines Buckpasser in the X with fast final fractions in a 9 furlong prep race is an advantage for horses running in the Derby?

Or, do you still hold to the extreme conclusion that at best the X chromosome plays only a minor role in broodmare sire success?

I don't recall having ever expressed any opinion one way or the other about the angle, per se.

As for your other heavily loaded question, a minor role is all the genome-based evidence supports for the x in relation to elite performance/broodmare sire success. There are other factors, environmental as well as genetic, that could explain why Buckpasser most frequently appears in the pedigrees of elite performers via daughters.

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Re: buck in the X

Postby TJ » Tue May 13, 2014 9:03 am

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought Col. E.R. Bradley was the first to come up with the final speed angle? I seem to remember that being mentioned in Tom Ainslie's book, "Ainslie's Complete Guide to Thouroughbred Racing" first published in 1968. Colonel E.R. Bradley (1859-1946) amassed a fortune as a gambler and breeder. The Colonel won 4 Kentucky Derby's with horses he owned and bred in Kentucky (Behave Yourself, Bubbling Over, Burgoo King and Brokers Tip....3 Preakness winners (Kalitan, Burgoo King and Bimelech)...and 2 Belmont Stakes winners (Blue Larkspur and Bimelech). TJ

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Re: buck in the X

Postby Patuxet » Tue May 13, 2014 8:51 pm

TJ wrote: "Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought Col. E.R. Bradley was the first to come up with the final speed angle?"

Right, as usual. Page 175 under a section headed with "A horse ... can be expected to run a good race today if it:

10. Ran the final quarter of its last race in 24 seconds or less. (The famous Colonel E. R. Bradley invented this one. He found that any horse able to cover the last two furlongs that rapidly was an especially good bet next time out....)
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