buck in the X

[stancaris]

Here is my angle for the Derby concerning Buckpasser in the X passing position plus a fast final fraction in a 9 furlong prep race.

In order to qualify on this angle a horse must carry Buckpasser in the X passing position and also race a final 3/8 of a mile of a 9 furlong prep race in 37 4/5 or less or the final 1/8 in 12 4/5 or less. The qualifier must also not have lost two lengths or more from the six furlong point to the finish of a 9 furlong prep.

The nine furlong preps used are only the Fla Derby, the Santa Anita Derby, the Wood Memorial and the Arkansas Derby. I used to use the Blue Grass when it was run on a dirt surface.

This angle has selected 5 winners in the last 18 years when at least one horse qualified on it. The percentage of starters fitting the angle is 7.8% and the percentage of winners is 27.7% which gives us a strong impact value of 3.55. The ROI on this angle is 101.6% and it includes all the Derbies in history that had at least one qualifier compete in the run for the roses.

Of even greater interest is the following: 8 horses that raced second in the Derby qualified on this angle. The impact value for running second is a very powerful 5.69. These types are running second approx 5 1/2 times more often than chance alone would dictate.

There were 25 qualifiers since 1978 when the first ever qualifier started in the Derby and that was Believe It who ran third that year. From the 25 qualifiers 5 won, 8 were second and one was third. 14 of the 25 qualifiers were part of the trifecta.

To illustrate the importance of the qualifiers that did not win the Derby but went on to achieve high status look at the following data:

Summer Bird , a qualifier, ran out of the money in the Derby but won the Belmont.
Dunkirk, a qualifier, ran out in the Derby but ran second in the Belmont stakes.
Empire Maker, a qualifier, ran second in the Derby and won the Belmont stakes.
Prairie Bayou, a qualifier, ran second in the Derby and won the Preakness.
Seeking the Gold, a qualifier ran out of the money in the Derby but has become a very influential broodmare sire and has been among the leaders in that division for the last 6 years.
Believe It who ran third in the Derby went on to be the broodmare sire of Real Quiet who won the roses in 1998.

[jagger]

Soooooooo......any qualifiers this year, Stan?

[stancaris]

Yes, this years qualifiers are California Chrome, Wildcat Red, Wicked Strong, and Ride On Curlin.

There are a number of horse in the field that carry Buckpasser in the X passing position that do not qualify on final fraction times. These are: Chitu, Vicars in Trouble, Tapiture, Uncle Sigh, Vinceremos, and Commanding Curve.

[jagger]

Yes, this years qualifiers are California Chrome, Wildcat Red, Wicked Strong, and Ride On Curlin.

There are a number of horse in the field that carry Buckpasser in the X passing position that do not qualify on final fraction times. These are: Chitu, Vicars in Trouble, Tapiture, Uncle Sigh, Vinceremos, and Commanding Curve.

Dang!!! I threw out 1 of those!!! Of the qualifiers.

Thanks, Stan for your work!! Will definitely be considering this in my "proprietary method".

[Matchemforever]

Can anyone point me to scientific evidence, under peer review, that the X Factor is a reality?

Not just observational anecdotes, not just opinion, but that there is a real gene passed on the X chromosome for a large heart?

I was really excited when I first heard of this but watching all the claims based on performance of a few horses, and the tracing to certain sires, who ALSO happen to be good broodmare sires, irrespective of the large heart claims, makes me skeptical.

And if it does exist, what other factors have to combine with it to make it work, which doesn't make it the determining factor all on its own.

I would think that if such a gene existed, there would have been enough interest in it to have found it by now.

Have they?

[aethervox]

Can anyone point me to scientific evidence, under peer review, that the X Factor is a reality?

Not just observational anecdotes, not just opinion, but that there is a real gene passed on the X chromosome for a large heart?

I was really excited when I first heard of this but watching all the claims based on performance of a few horses, and the tracing to certain sires, who ALSO happen to be good broodmare sires, irrespective of the large heart claims, makes me skeptical.

And if it does exist, what other factors have to combine with it to make it work, which doesn't make it the determining factor all on its own.

I would think that if such a gene existed, there would have been enough interest in it to have found it by now.

Have they?

I believe that there were published studies done in Australia and Sweden regarding heart size and performance. It's my understanding that the funding dried up for the study that Marianna Haun was originally involved in, but in her third book she was working with a private breeder who allowed her and Dr. Fred Fregin to measure the heart sizes of his horses. During a necropsy of one of the foals that died at a week old, Haun says that the heart size of the foal was larger that a 'normal' foal, indicating that the heart size was not from exercise.

Also in her third book, Haun discusses a conformation trait that seems to be passed with one of the large hearts -- a spine with one less thoracic vertebra as well as one less pair of ribs, which is a trait found in some Arabian Horses. They actually X-rayed one of the foals to confirm this -- evidently it's very difficult to X-ray an adult horses's spine. Haun states that the trait allows the horse to have a longer stride.

She mentions that while looking at a photo of a known large-hearted horse, she noted that his back seemed short, so she measured the distance in the photo from elbow to ground vs withers to point of hip, and discovered that the back was definitely shorter, which is something that was noted in the measurements a sculptor made of Secretariat.

Her hypothesis is now that Pocahontas had two different large heart genes - one from Eclipse, and one that she's named the Darley X. King Tom exhibits the Darley X while Stockwell exhibits the Eclipse X.

My personal opinion is that a larger heart really comes into play in the longer races. For example, Verrazano, whose physiological evaluation was published last year, has a normal sized heart and he didn't win a race longer than a mile an eighth.

I also think that biomechanics come into play -- an MIT professor claimed that Secretariat's gallop was the most efficient he'd ever seen -- there was very little wasted energy (when two hooves are on the ground at the same time). Again, just my opinion.

[Matchemforever]

Thank you, aethervox. I appreciate your take that this is your opinion, and the X gene is not yet, as far as I know, fact. I don’t doubt much that a large heart can help. I do doubt that all the other characteristics Haun mentioned necessarily go with it. Haun’s apparently increasing claims for what the alleged X gene is responsible for are still only observations and probably occur in any sampling of the Thoroughbred, not just those allegedly carrying the gene. Even IF true, it would indicate a perfect storm has to come together, not just one factor, i.e., a large heart. One would have to have a much larger sampling, and a study that showed how many average or even non-talented race horses carried the same characteristics.

I do occasionally read Bojum’s Bonanza, and here’s what he had to say in two articles on the X factor: http://ddink55.wordpress.com/?s=x+factor (Read the comments, too)

He at least uses some statistics. I don’t know about sale price, but the performance statistics are interesting. Again, a larger sampling would be nice, but at least he took more into account than just observational anecdotes.

I would like to know if anyone found the information a person in the comments mentioned:

It’s a moot point, however, since there is no lack of highly credible genetic evidence debunking this hypothesis which holds that heart size is controlled on the X chromosome. The domestic horse genome was sequenced six years ago, SNP chips developed, and since then the genome of no breed has been scrutinized as closely as the TB. As first proposed ~20 years ago the X factor hypothesis was somewhat simplistic though not altogether implausible and certainly not “bizarre”. But as it turns out the factors controlling heart size aren’t on the X and the hypothesis is false.

I’m not doubting the heart size is helpful, but again, it seems a perfect storm, which occurs maybe once in several lifetimes, (Man O’ War, Secretariat) is just that, a rare occurrence. To me, if the hypothesis of the X factor were really true, we’d see more and better horses more often. Now that it appears the X factor is being broken down into different lines of the X factor, then Haun is diluting her own hypothesis, in an attempt to keep it alive. At that rate, you’re back to all thoroughbreds potentially having the X factor.

Maybe good broodmare sires come about more because they’re out of good dams? Somthingroyal got Secretariat and Sir Gaylord. Mahubah got Man O’ War, My Play, and Masda, as the best of their get. But they got more than one, though albeit; no sibling could live up to the stars. Later, we have maybe Barbaro as potential, but none of his siblings could even be considered with a Sir Gaylord and My Play in terms of racing success.

Anyway, if anyone knows if what I’ve underlined isn’t just opinion, but actually fact, that the X factor has been debunked, I’d like to find that information.

Thanks.

[Pan Zareta]

Can anyone point me to scientific evidence, under peer review, that the X Factor is a reality?

Not just observational anecdotes, not just opinion, but that there is a real gene passed on the X chromosome for a large heart?

Haun's x factor hypothesis that heart size is controlled on ECAX is not supported, much less confirmed, by the genome-based evidence presented in peer-reviewed reports to date and is considered disproven by members of the Equine Genome team whose opinions have been solicited. It has, however, been informally reported that there are a few performance-related variants on ECAX. These have nothing to do with heart size/function and there are many variants in the autosomal genome that are far more important to elite performance. Still, it could be that when the more important variants are all roughly equivalent the x variants are making a difference. In other words, the Buckpasser in the x angle is not necessarily devoid of scientific basis.

[jagger]

Buckpasser fans....anyone like my 2yo colt, Tenbrook? I think he has 2 crosses in the correct position......as well as 3 others.

[aethervox]

I recently ran across an article about athletic terrestrial mammals, that had some very interesting graphics. You can read the abstract and view the illustrations for free, but the article isn't available online.

David C. Poole, Howard H. Erickson. Highly Athletic Terrestrial Mammals: Horses and Dogs. Compr Physiol 2011, 1: 1-37. doi: 10.1002/cphy.c091001

http://www.comprehensivephysiology.com/WileyCDA/CompPhysArticle/refId-c091001.html

Figure 10 is interesting as it illustrates the O2 pathway of the horse.

In Figure 12, the lowest panel is a photo that compares the heart of champion Key to the Mint (15.8 lb) to an average stallion of similar body mass (12 lb).

Figure 18 is particularly interesting as it compares cardiac output to heart mass during maximal exercise in one graph and cardiac output to O2 uptake in another. They extrapolated the O2 uptake of named thoroughbreds from published heart weights (measured or estimated) using data obtained by other researchers.

[stancaris]

California Chrome has two roads to Buckpasser in the X passing position. Someone told me that because he is inbred to Buckpasser he is likely to carry around 25% of Buckpassers X Chromosome. Is that true?

[TJ]

post error

[TJ]

Personally I like the RF California Chrome's mare carries to Numbered Account (4x4) through 1/2 siblings Polish Numbers and Dance Number, which in turn, created the Buckpasser inbreeding. TJ

[DDT]

Stan

California Chrome also has the chance to have many of Buckpasser's genes that were also passed along, the good and the bad, if there were any bad genes to be passed. The one thing I still cannot get past is the fact that Buckpasser in an X passing position is just about the only way his genes are carried forward because of his very limited appearance in pedigrees from tail male. You obviously have the opinion that genes carried on his X chromosome are a primary reason for his success while it remains a scientific fact that to date, no super genes have been found on the X going to superior performance. Given the fact that Buckpasser is tail male to 3 Kentucky Derby winners, none of which had the benefit of his X or any genes carried on it, would lead me to believe that genes carried on his X have very little to do with elite performance.

DDT

[DDT]

TJ

I think Dance Number and Polish Numbers are actually 3/4 siblings, and if not they are much closer than half. It matters not because I agree with you that it is a powerful genetic input for California Chrome and could very well be one of the primary reasons for his racing ability.


DDT