140th Running of The Kentucky Derby (Grade I) UPDATE

[TJ]

Here's the Derby entries and post positions. Updated past performances are below. Hoppertunity is out...curse of Apollo? TJ

11th RACE. (C11) Post 6:24PM Stakes
The 140th Running of THE KENTUCKY DERBY (Grade I) PURSE $2,000,000 Guaranteed 1 1/4 Mile
FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS, WITH AN ENTRY FEE OF $25,000 EACH AND A STARTING FEE OF $25,000 EACH.

1 VICAR'S IN TROUBLE (L) E0 Maker, M Napravnik, R 126
2 HARRY'S HOLIDAY (L) E0 Maker, M Lanerie, C 126
3 UNCLE SIGH (L) Contessa, G Ortiz, Jr., I 126
4 DANZA (L) Pletcher, T Bravo, J 126
5 CALIFORNIA CHROME (L) E3 Sherman, A Espinoza, V 126
6 SAMRAAT (L) E2 Violette, Jr., R Ortiz, J 126
7 WE MISS ARTIE (L) E0 Pletcher, T Castellano, J 126
8 GENERAL A ROD (L) E3 Maker, M Rosario, J 126
9 VINCEREMOS (L) E0 Pletcher, T Rocco, Jr., J 126
10 WILDCAT RED (L) E0 Garoffalo, J Saez, L 126
11 HOPPERTUNITY (L) E0 Baffert, B Smith, M 126.....SCRATCHED......
12 DANCE WITH FATE (L) Eurton, P Nakatani, C 126
13 CHITU (L) E0 Baffert, B Garcia, M 126
14 MEDAL COUNT (L) E0 Romans, D Albarado, R 126
15 TAPITURE (L) E0 Asmussen, S Santana, Jr., R 126
16 INTENSE HOLIDAY (L) E0 Pletcher, T Velazquez, J 126
17 COMMANDING CURVE (L) E0 Stewart, D Bridgmohan, S 126
18 CANDY BOY (L) E0 Sadler, J Stevens, G 126
19 RIDE ON CURLIN (L) E3 Gowan, W Borel, C 126
20 WICKED STRONG (L) E3 Jerkens, J Maragh, R 126
--Also Eligible--
21 PABLO DEL MONTE (L) E0 Ward, W Sanchez, J 126....SCRATCHED.....
Blinkers On: Uncle Sigh
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewe ... m3=1484318

[Cree]

I'm moving the next few days, so I'm not going to have time to look again.

Here's my Top 4:

Candy Boy
California Chrome
Dance with Fate
Ride On Curlin

Good luck to all.

I'll probably change my mind in 5 minutes.

[geowarrior]

Boxed trifecta, California Chrome, Danza, Medal Count.

[TJ]

Here it is Thursday night and I still have to wait and see what tomorrow brings. This from Mike Welsch who is a good clocker as well as an astute interpreter of a horses fitness, soundness and body language. Yesterday (over a muddy track) he didn't like the way California Chrome and Hoppertunity were moving. He was also leery of the way Wicked Strong was acting since he's been here...very skittish around the big screen, ducking in and out in his gallop yesterday. He was particularly interested in seeing CC and Hoppertunity this AM....as it turned out, Hoppertunity never made it to the track this morning and eventually was scratched....so 2 points for Mike's eye there. California Chrome visited the paddock and gate this AM over a fast track, Mike tweeted...Looked stiff jogging over to the paddock and when beginning to gallop after leaving gate but did warm out of it, appeared much better the second time around, better than over muddy surface yesterday.. Tried to grab the bit when passed by a couple of gate workers about 1 1 /8 miles into the gallop....
Wicked Strong blew out 3/8ths of a mile in 36.60 and his antics seemed to be gone when he was focused and running rather then galloping and looking around. So I will wait and see what happens tomorrow with "Chrome Dome's" gallop before making selections. Others who have impressed in the morning have been all 3 of Pletchers horses. Though Welsch wasn't too happy with Vicar's in Trouble' way of going, he tweeted...."looked choppy"?
Additionally we have some serious post position changes after Hoppertunity scratched, provided Pablo Del Monte does run? If he doesn't run post positions will change yet again...if only 19 run, the inside stall in the gate would be left open, and the 19 runners would go from posts 2 through 20. If he does run, he will get post 20 and everyone else from post 20 to 12 move in one post position....confusing enough:>) Under this scenario, the auxiliary gate has been a major player in recent years....of the last 6 running's of the Derby the secondary gate has produced 4 winners, 2013 and Orb #15, 2012 and I'll Have Another #19, 2011 and Animal Kingdom #16, 2008 and Big Brown #20. Intense Holiday moves into the 15 while Commanding Curve exits post 17 and enters post 16. Leaving Candy Boy the possible loser with that exchange, he will end up in post 17....a post position that has never produced a Derby winner. Though he does have the services of a hall of fame rider? Ya think there's a lot more work to do to come up with a winner:>) TJ

[Bill from WA]

Pablo del Monte's withdawal helps Rosie. She has more room to navigate, breaking from the 2 hole, and won't have to maneuver away from the rail the way post #1 challenges you to do. VIT has a slightly better chance now.

Bill

[karenkarenn]

I put the post positions on the " racing " section if you are confused.
Rosie now starts from gate 2. and everyone from 1 to 10 moves one over to the Right.
Karen

[karenkarenn]

I am impressed with Vincermos fluid movements in a stressful environment this morning. With all this going on, he looks very good, nothing seems to scare him. Wildcat Red looks like he's ready, very professional in his jog this morning. Tomorrow is going to be the deciding factor for California Chrome, right now he looks loose but hes looks scared, just like Dance with Fate. Dance with Fate is locking down and really not going forward when he jogs. He's wadding up. General A Rod is also going to be in my list too.

[hpkingjr]

Here's how D Wayne is betting.


LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB) – There’s no questioning the ability of D. Wayne Lukas to train a winner of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness or Belmont Stakes.

His horses have won the Derby four times, the Preakness six times and four Belmonts. Nobody has done it better than Lukas and his 14 Triple Crown wins.

Lukas will not saddle a horse in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. He will, however, make an appearance at the betting windows. As promised Tuesday, I convinced Lukas to share his Derby betting strategy.

His preferred wager is a seven-horse superfecta.

Translation: If any four members in Lukas’s group finish 1-2-3-4 in the Derby, it’s a winning ticket. But everybody in the top four has to be in this group.

It’s not an inexpensive wager. It’s out of my budget. You’ll likely need to recruit a syndicate to make your investment. A $1 seven-horse superfecta box is an $840 bet.

Lukas said that he picked the top four last year – Orb, Golden Soul, Revolutionary, Normandy Invasion. The $1 superfecta paid $28,542, primarily because Golden Soul was a major longshot.

Lukas insisted that a seven-horse superfecta box is the only wager that he makes in Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup races.

"You can draw a line through a lot of these horses," Lukas said. "There are a few that are easy to eliminate."

Enough delay. Here are Lukas’s seven horses (listed in order of their post position draw, not in preference of how he believes they will run).

1. Danza, winner of the Arkansas Derby who has only started four times.

2. California Chrome, the likely favorite who has rolled in his last four races.

3. Samraat, unbeaten in his first five starts before finishing second in the Wood Memorial.

4. Medal Count, the backside buzz horse who will be racing for the third time in 29 days.

5. Tapiture, coming off a fourth-place finish in the Arkansas Derby.

6. Ride On Curlin, has not won since Jan. 12 but should benefit from jockey Calvin Borel.

7. Wicked Strong, winner of the Wood Memorial, only his second win in six starts.

There is your D. Wayne Lukas 2014 Kentucky Derby wager. Proceed with care.

Copyright 2014 WDRB News. All Rights Reserved.

[TJ]

California Chrome
Danza
Wicked Strong
Ride On Curlin
Intense Holiday

[hpkingjr]

Danza
California Chrome
OVER
MEDAL COUNT
WILDCAT RED
UNCLE SIGH
WICKED STRONG

TRI
SUPER

[TJ]

An interesting fact that may help your handicapping effort at CD today.
Last race highest beyer produced 8 winners on yesterday's Oaks card. This tweet below, from Andy Beyer, tooting his own horn, but valuable nonetheless. TJ

BIG BEYERS RULE OAKS DAY
Horses with the top last-race Beyer Speed Figure won eight races on the Oaks Day card at Churchill Downs, sweeping a Pick Six that paid $7957.20.
The key horse in the Pick Six sequence was Moonshine Mullins, who paid $15.80 in the Alysheba Stakes. He had earned a figure of 108 winning an optional claiming race at Oaklawn Park, and he beat a field that included the odds-on favorite Will Take Charge, who had most recently captured the Oaklawn Handicap with a modest figure of 103.
Other winners included A Little Bit Sassy in the Edgewood Stakes ($10.20) and Marchman in the Twin Spires Turf Sprint ($8.80). Untapable, who had an advantage of 13 points over her nearest rival, completed the Pick Six by winning the Kentucky Oaks. - Andrew Beyer

[dublino]

Vinceremos
Candy Boy
Medal Count

[TJ]

California Chrome....he didn't even break a sweat!!
Commanding Curve...Dallas draws in late and gets up again for 2nd at a big price.
Danza...on the improve
Wicked Strong...rambunctious going to the gate, made a facile bid after some interference.

[TJ]

Here's the Derby replay. TJ
http://www1.drf.com/displayVideo.do?tra ... ountry=USA

[dublino]

Poor Derby poor time poor winner - geld them all.