Belmont Stakes Probables

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TJ
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Belmont Stakes Probables

Postby TJ » Mon May 19, 2014 1:14 pm

With two in the history books and 3 weeks to recover from the Derby and Preakness, California Chrome will attempt to be horse racing's 12th Triple Crown winner. A couple new shooter's, one returning from the Preakness along with some fresh Derby runner's coming back for more, while attempting to dethrone the champ in the 1 1/2 mile Belmont Stakes. Now that the nasal strip issue has been resolved, we can all "breath" a lot easier....including California Chrome:>) I will continue to edit additional prospects as we get closer to race day. It looks like these will be the horses that will make up the Belmont Stakes field. TJ

Current Probables:
California Chrome
Commanding Curve
Ride On Curlin
Wicked Strong
Commissioner
Tonalist
Samraat
Matuszak
Medal Count
Current Possibles:
Matterhorn
Social Inclusion
Candy Boy
Kid Cruz
Last edited by TJ on Tue May 27, 2014 4:34 pm, edited 5 times in total.

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Re: Belmont Stakes Probables

Postby murphysmom » Wed May 21, 2014 4:30 am

I'm still hoping Ride On Curlin will win the Belmont.

But I am curious as to why I'll Have Another wasn't allowed to use the nasal strips for the Belmont & California Chrome is. Did the owners/trainer of I'll Have Another fail to file the appropriate paperwork for the request or were they actually denied?

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Re: Belmont Stakes Probables

Postby TJ » Wed May 21, 2014 5:57 am

murphysmom wrote:I'm still hoping Ride On Curlin will win the Belmont.

But I am curious as to why I'll Have Another wasn't allowed to use the nasal strips for the Belmont & California Chrome is. Did the owners/trainer of I'll Have Another fail to file the appropriate paperwork for the request or were they actually denied?

Hi Murphysmom,
The nasal strip was approved by the rules of racing by the NY State Racing Commission...yet the nasal strip was banned by an in house rule at all NYRA tracks by the racing stewards due to concerns regarding "equipment regulation". Similar to keeping track of blinkers on, or blinkers off, being listed in the overnights and racing forms for betting information. The actual in house rule was ambiguous and why they allowed CC to wear it and not O'Neill does seem odd. In this instance, the difference being when Sherman asked the stewards if he could use the nasal strip...the State Racing Commission decided to weigh in on this decision, which didn't happen when O'Neill asked. Possibly because his reputation was being ripped apart by the media due to his milkshake suspensions at that time? The Commission decided to classify the nasal strip as similar to a tongue tie, which is also a non regulated piece of equipment. They urged the stewards to reconsider their in house rule, since the Commission had approved the nasal strip for use 15 years ago in NY. We now see the outcome, as CC will be allowed to wear the nasal strip, as will all other horses who race at NYRA tracks...O'Neill included, who will run Goldencents on the Belmont Stakes under-card, in the GR I Metropolitan Mile with nasal strip:>) TJ

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Re: Belmont Stakes Probables

Postby TJ » Wed May 21, 2014 2:42 pm

California Chrome had his first spin over the Belmont main track this AM Wed, (5/21). He jogged a mile and seven-sixteenths the wrong way. Chrome looked like he was feeling pretty good for a horse who just took 2/3rds of the Triple Crown. He moved much better then he did at CD the first few days. Tomorrow he will gallop over that big 1 1/2 mile track....that will be a much better indication of what Chrome thinks of the new surface. TJ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eyznTGsqmt8

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Re: Belmont Stakes Probables

Postby Cree » Thu May 22, 2014 8:14 am

Who do we think (other than Chrome)has a chance to win this? I like Wicked Strong and if Kid Cruz goes, I could see him plodding to the win!

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Re: Belmont Stakes Probables

Postby TJ » Thu May 22, 2014 10:24 am

Cree wrote:Who do we think (other than Chrome)has a chance to win this? I like Wicked Strong and if Kid Cruz goes, I could see him plodding to the win!

Hi Cree,
I think Wicked Strong has a decent shot? The trainer's of Tonalist and Commissioner feel these two want the 1 1/2 miles of the Belmont Stakes. If Candy Boy decides to run, I would have to consider him. He was knocked out of the Derby going into the first turn by Wicked Strong, he wasn't fit enough when he ran in the SA Derby....so I expect if he goes, he will run a much improved race.
That being said, we have a long time (by TC standards:>) till the actual Belmont Stakes field is assembled. I think a key factor will be the way these horses train up to the Belmont Stakes. This AM, CC cautiously galloped around the "dogs", over a sealed, muddy and hard main track at Belmont Park. I'm looking forward to watch him gallop over a fast Belmont main track. TJ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8SoNtunZKTY

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Re: Belmont Stakes Probables

Postby TJ » Thu May 22, 2014 10:34 am

As I was saying, the field is yet to be assembled:>) Billy Mott just announced Matuszak will be pointed for the Belmont Stakes and ridden by Mike Smith. These two joined together in 2010 with Drosselmeyer to win the Belmont Stakes, Mike Smith also won it last year with Palace Malice. TJ

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Re: Belmont Stakes Probables

Postby Cree » Thu May 22, 2014 2:54 pm

I love watching his funny walk. He's a neat horse, seems to just go about his business like a pro.

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Re: Belmont Stakes Probables

Postby TJ » Thu May 22, 2014 3:14 pm

Cree wrote:I love watching his funny walk. He's a neat horse, seems to just go about his business like a pro.

Hi Cree,
I agree...that funny walk is partially due to his turned out right hoof....that was the one that cut his mom's uterus when he was foaled:>) Mom was given a year off while she recovered, then put back in foal....she's produced two full sister's to CC since. TJ

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Re: Belmont Stakes Probables

Postby TJ » Fri May 23, 2014 4:11 pm

California Chrome had an impressive 1 3/4 mile gallop at Belmont Park this AM over a main track listed as good. Seems like winning the Derby and Preakness took nothing out of him? He quickens his pace as he goes along...this horse is something else. Watch his gallop over a fast track. If you didn't see the other video, check it out in the racing section....there's an opossum crossing the track as CC neared the end of his gallop. TJ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RqkK-1xsmM4#t=10

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Re: Belmont Stakes Probables

Postby TJ » Sat May 24, 2014 1:12 pm

California Chrome galloped another mile and three quarters today (Sat. 5/24) over a sloppy Belmont main track. View the video, which unfortunately just showed his first time past the wire....he picked it up quite a bit afterwards....but we didn't get to see it. TJ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wp5aJrA7cPo

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Re: Belmont Stakes Probables

Postby TJ » Sun May 25, 2014 9:45 am

Busy morning for Belmont contender's this Sunday 5/25. Though more of the same for California Chrome, as he galloped 1 3/4 miles over a fast track (for a change) this AM over Belmont Parks main track. He looked very strong at the end, as the camera showed him galloping by the wire for the 2nd and final time.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5ZMif5sR3w#t=114

Next up was the Pletcher pair of Commissioner (Javier Castellano on board) and Intense Holiday who worked 5/8ths in company going 1:00.77 seconds breezing. Intense Holiday, as some may know, suffered a condylar fracture in the work and will be out of consideration for the Belmont Stakes. Watch closely from about 1:48-1:51 point of the video, it seemed Commissioner went by Intense Holiday and you could see a slight bobble at that point by Intense Holiday?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9TQ_HuCDiEo

Now comes Tonalist's move, an easy 5/8ths in 1:01.66. Looked like nothing more then a maintenance breeze. He does seem to have a rather high action, not the most efficient way of going, when trying to negotiate 1 1/2 miles? TJ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LA7BK1-so8o

Finally Samraat, who shipped to Belmont Park from his Aqueduct headquarters to breeze a mile at Belmont Park this morning. These mile breeze's have been the norm for this guy since his Derby preps at Palm Meadows. Very professional and serious move which began at the 7 1/2 pole marker to a 1/16th of a mile past the wire. Samraat completed his mile in 1:41.28 breezing, while finishing the last 1/4 in 24 flat. TJ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TYP1BFyV7Ng

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Re: Belmont Stakes Probables

Postby jagger » Sun May 25, 2014 1:52 pm

Intense Holiday Out

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Re: Belmont Stakes Probables

Postby TJ » Sun May 25, 2014 5:18 pm

jagger wrote:Intense Holiday Out

Hi jagger,
Yes, right after he worked this AM noted in the post above yours. Also noted earlier by Cree in the racing section. If you look closely you will notice something amiss....work posted below. TJ

Next up was the Pletcher pair of Commissioner (Javier Castellano on board) and Intense Holiday who worked 5/8ths in company going 1:00.77 seconds breezing. Intense Holiday, as some may know, suffered a condylar fracture in the work and will be out of consideration for the Belmont Stakes. Watch closely from about 1:48-1:51 point of the video, it seemed Commissioner went by Intense Holiday and you could see a slight bobble at that point by Intense Holiday?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9TQ_HuCDiEo

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Re: Belmont Stakes Probables

Postby TJ » Sun May 25, 2014 6:17 pm

Wicked Strong worked a mile Sunday Morning (5/25) over the Belmont Park training track for Jimmy Jerkens going in 1:39.59 breezing. Probably the best work of the day from any Belmont contender, considering it was done over the slower one mile training track. Check out his workout below....he looks like trouble:>) TJ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-o3Sp6W1 ... tube_gdata