Belmont Picks

[Bill from WA]

Hello

In the aftermath, I'm sad that CC didn't win the Triple Crown. I still think he's the best of this crop. Tonalist ran like I thought he would, but I seriously underestimated Medal Count, Commissioner (good call Cree) and Samraat (especially Commissioner). I overestimated Ride on Curlin (don't know if he was injured or what).

The Belmont is a peculiar race in which the most stamina laden pedigrees often come up short.
Using historical references as to winners running styles, coupled with my MCM applications, I came up with these picks. In order of preference:

1) California Chrome (4th)
2) Tonalist (1st)
3) Ride On Curlin (dnf)
4) Wicked Strong (4th)
5) General A Rod (7th)
6) Commanding Curve (9th)
7) Medal Count (3rd)
8) Commissioner (2nd)
9) Matterhorn (8th)
10) Matuszak (dnf)
11) Samraat (6th)

Tonalist has the pedigree and running style that could make this Belmont interesting, but I see California Chrome coming home victorious. Ride On Curlin always gives his best and should be in the mix.
Good luck to all.

Bill

[Cree]

I'm surprised Commissioner scored so low. By AP Indy out of a Touch Gold mare. Second dam by Lear Fan.

[jagger]

Not sure what angle for handicapping this is but I just learned that California Chrome started all three Triple crown races from the same post positions as Secretariat. The planets are aligned.

[jagger]

I thought it was very difficult to pick from just a purely MCM perspective, Bill. Really, you could make an argument for any, save Samraat, for winning this race from a MCM standpoint. Numbers NOT in his favor are Sire and B'mare sire's have the worst AWD of any horse in the field and DI might be the worst in the field as well. I truly think the difference in this horse is the training. He's had more work than any horse between the Preakness and the Belmont of any previous Triple Crown winners.

[TJ]

Not sure what angle for handicapping this is but I just learned that California Chrome started all three Triple crown races from the same post positions as Secretariat. The planets are aligned.

Hi Jagger,
Big Red broke from post 10 in the Derby, 3 in the Preakness and 1 in the Belmont. California Chrome broke from 5 in the Derby, 3 in the Preakness and he will break from post 2 this Saturday in the Belmont. One out of three ain't bad:>)
On a sour note, no horse ever won the Triple Crown in a field size which California Chrome will meet Saturday. TJ

Triple Crown Winner's Field Size:
Affirmed 5
Seattle Slew 8
Secretariat 5
Citation 8
Assault 7
Count Fleet 3
Whirlaway 4
Omaha 5
Gallant Fox 4
Sir Barton 3

[DDT]

Hey TJ

While that is true about the field size, I think you can safely eliminate at least 3 or 4 of these runners, 3 of them have not won a race this year, you know what I mean?

DDT

[Bill from WA]

Hi Jagger

I don't put too much credence in the Sire and BM sire's average winning distance. Opportunity kind of skews those numbers. I prefer to look at the sire's dam, and the broodmare sire's dam. Along Lucky Pulpit's dam line you have the likes of the good distance runner Seattle Song, who sired Cee's Song, dam of Tiznow and Budroyale. Going back to the broodmare sire's dam you bring in family 1s (1x) back to to Numbered Account, and she traces back to Intriguing by Swaps (Intriguing is 4x3 to War Admiral) and Swaps is from the same female family as Chrome's dam. Lots of very good stamina influences there. The thing that puts CC over the top is his innate speed and push button acceleration, which has historically proved to be a tremendous asset in this race (and the track's racing configuration). Tonalist has a very similar conduit mare profile, and I feel that he is the biggest threat to spoil CC's triple crown bid.
Good luck to all.

Bill

[jagger]

Agree on both Tonalist and Samraat, Bill.

[DDT]

For the Belmont I like:

California Chrome
Wicked Strong
Ride On Curlin
Tonalist

I believe California Chrome maintains a big class advantage over these runners and I do believe he will win, however his closing odds will be such that I am going to use him in pick 4's, daily doubles and flirt with a pick 6 ticket. I will play a $.50 pick 4 using races 8-11, 5,6,9 with 1,4 with 1,6 with 2,4,5,9,11 for a cost of $30.00. I will also play a $5.00 pick 4 using 5,6,9 with 1,4 with 6 with 2 for a cost of $30.00. Using the rolling doubles format, the 10th and 11th races, I will play a $40.00 double 6-2 and $10.00 doubles 6-4, 6-5, 6-9 and 6-11. I have 3 singles for the pick 6 spread, so I just might play a $2.00 pick 6 using 8 with 5,6 with 5,6,9 with 1,4 with 6 with 2 for a cost of $24.00.

Hope they all have a clean and safe trip. Good luck everyone.

DDT

[dublino]

Medal Count

Hopefully he will get a better run than in the Derby when he was blocked when making his move.

[Georgerz]

California Chrome, Tonalist, Matuszak and Matterhorn, for me.

[jagger]

Hi Jagger

I don't put too much credence in the Sire and BM sire's average winning distance. Opportunity kind of skews those numbers. I prefer to look at the sire's dam, and the broodmare sire's dam. Along Lucky Pulpit's dam line you have the likes of the good distance runner Seattle Song, who sired Cee's Song, dam of Tiznow and Budroyale. Going back to the broodmare sire's dam you bring in family 1s (1x) back to to Numbered Account, and she traces back to Intriguing by Swaps (Intriguing is 4x3 to War Admiral) and Swaps is from the same female family as Chrome's dam. Lots of very good stamina influences there. The thing that puts CC over the top is his innate speed and push button acceleration, which has historically proved to be a tremendous asset in this race (and the track's racing configuration). Tonalist has a very similar conduit mare profile, and I feel that he is the biggest threat to spoil CC's triple crown bid.
Good luck to all.

Bill

I really don't either, Bill. Just looking at something to separate this outstanding field from a CMP perspective. All but Samraat really have a good ladies side for the distance.