The GR I Jockey Club Gold Cup and GR I Awesome Again Stake

[TJ]

These two east and west coast GR I's are also BC Classic "win and you're in events". The west coast Awesome Again Stake features Shared Belief's first start over Santa Anita's dirt course.
The Jockey Club Gold Cup sets up the rematch between the top 3YO's Wicked Strong, Tonalist and V. E. Day. They will meet older for the first time, including top Handicap horses Moreno, Micromanage and Zevo. Below are the entries and past performances.

10th Race. (C10) Approx Post 5:50PM STAKES
THE JOCKEY CLUB GOLD CUP
Grade I - Purse $1,000,000 (Up to $60,000 NYSBFOA) One Mile And One Quarter
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.
1 Micromanage(L) B.c.4 126 Saez, L Repole Stable Pletcher, Todd
2 Last Gunfighter(L) Dk B/ Br.h.5 126 Bravo, J Gunther, J Brown, Chad
3 Wicked Strong(L) B.c.3 122 Maragh, R Centennial Farms Jerkens, James
4 Zivo(L) B.h.5 126 Lezcano, J Coleman, T Brown, Chad
5 Prayer for Relief(L) Dk B/ Br.h.6 126 Velazquez, J Zayat Stables, LLC Romans, Dale
6 Long River(L) Ch.c.4 126 Velasquez, C Godolphin Stable McLaughlin, Kiaran
7 Speak Logistics(S)(L) B.c.4 126 Lopez, P Hardway Stables Contessa, Gary
8 Tonalist(L) B.c.3 122 Rosario, J Evans, R Clement, Christophe ..............Blk-Off
9 Stephanoatsee(L) Dk B/ Br.r.5 126 Ortiz, J My Meadowview Farms Zito, Nicholas
10 V. E. Day(L) Ch.c.3 122 Castellano, J Bryant, M Jerkens, James
11 Moreno(L) B.g.4 126 Alvarado, J Southern Equine Stables Guillot, Eric
12 Big Cazanova (ARG)(L) Ch.r.5 126 Ortiz, Jr., I Wachtel Stable Miller, Peter
(S) Denotes Supplementary Nominations
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewe ... m3=1329240

8th Race. The 3rd Running of The Awesome Again Stakes (Grade I)
$300,000 Guaranteed One Mile And One Eighth
FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD.
1 FED BIZ (L) '09 H 119 Garcia, M Kaleem Shah, Inc. and Fed Biz, LLC Bob Baffert
2 SKY KINGDOM (L) '09 H 119 Espinoza, V Westrock Stables, LLC Bob Baffert
3 BIRD E HOUSE (L) '11 G 116 Talamo, J Hronis Racing, LLC John W. Sadler
4 SHARED BELIEF (L) '11 G 121 Smith, M Jungle Racing LLC, Hollendorfer or Todaro, Et Al Jerry Hollendorfer
5 FOOTBRIDGE (L) '10 C 119 Bejarano, R Godolphin Racing, LLC (Lessee) E. G. Harty
6 MAJESTIC HARBOR (L) '08 H 124 Baze, T Gallant Stables, LLC Sean McCarthy
7 MYSTERY TRAIN (ARG) (L) '10 R 124 Blanc, B Red Baron's Barn LLC or Rancho Temescal Darrell Vienna
8 IMPERATIVE (L) '10 G 119 Desormeaux, K KM Racing Enterprise, Inc. George Papaprodromou
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewe ... m3=1337296

[Mac]

Breaking out the popcorn and set to enjoy this weekend of racing. To find out (at least find out more) how good Shared Belief really is and to hope V E Day rocks against Moreno and other tough competitors. I love V E Day's pedigree relating to stamina, he has Deputy Minister, Roberto, and all kinds of good stuff going on, not the least of which he is from Dynaformer's female family, although he's too lightly raced and still and unknown to not worry about Moreno, Wicked Strong if that one has a better trip, etc. I read where some handicappers think the pace scenario may benefit the deep closers so V E Day might have a real shot here.

Both races very interesting.

[Cree]

I like Tonalist, Micromanage, and VE Day in the JCGC.

I like Shared Belief, Footbridge, and Imperative in the AA.

[Mac]

nice pick on tonalist cree

[Cree]

Thanks. That was a nice patient ride by Rosario, keeping him in on the inside and finding room. Too bad about Wicked Strong and Maragh. Sounds like it's a broken arm, and the horse seems ok.

As for Shared Belief, isn't he something? He has guts and talent. I've always liked Fed Biz, he ran a good race.

[TJ]

Hi Cree,
Good picks! Tonalist loves the Belmont strip (now 3 for 3) and removed B's for his win. Espinoza is starting to show what a bad rider he is and watching this ride he should get the boot off Chrome. After Castellano intimidated him and California Chrome in their last two starts, he thought he should do the same to Mike Smith and Shared Belief. Though in Espinoza's attempt, it was a totally willful and careless move he put on Shared Belief and Smith going into the first turn.....so much so that the stewards suspended him 7 days. Here's the replay for both races. TJ
Shared Belief: http://www1.drf.com/displayVideo.do?tra ... ountry=USA
Tonalist: http://www1.drf.com/displayVideo.do?tra ... ountry=USA

[Georgerz]

Well, I guess now that Tonalist has a very good chance of winning the Breeders Cup Classic if he runs.

[stancaris]

If you go by statistics there has never been a winner of the BC Classic in California that last raced in New York.

[TJ]

If you go by statistics there has never been a winner of the BC Classic in California that last raced in New York.

Hi Stan,
Long time no see:>) Fort Larned won the BC Classic at Santa Anita in 2012. His previous start was a 3rd place finish at Belmont Park in the JC Gold Cup. Skip Away also pulled it off the same way, only he won the JC Gold Cup going into his winning effort in the 1997 BC Classic at Hollywood Park. TJ
Fort Larned: http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFC ... SA&race=12
Skip Away: http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFC ... USA&race=8

[stancaris]

TJ: Thanks for the corrections. 2 winners that traveled 3000 miles certainly gives hope to the NY invaders in this years BC Classic. Usually, the home based horses do have an advantage (5 of 7) but who knows maybe Tonalist or Zivo may fire a big one at Santa Anita.

Going the other direction Baffert shipped Bayern 3000 miles east two times and won the Haskell and PA Derby with his California star.

[TJ]

TJ: Thanks for the corrections. 2 winners that traveled 3000 miles certainly gives hope to the NY invaders in this years BC Classic. Usually, the home based horses do have an advantage (5 of 7) but who knows maybe Tonalist or Zivo may fire a big one at Santa Anita.

Going the other direction Baffert shipped Bayern 3000 miles east two times and won the Haskell and PA Derby with his California star.

Hi Stan,
By my count they held 10 BC Classic's on the west coast and 6 were won by horses that had their final prep in CA, including the east coast runner Mucho Macho Man. Two of those Classic wins came over the All Weather and certainly gave an edge to horses accustomed to it. Two had their final prep race in Europe (Longchamp and Ascot) and the 2 which I all ready mentioned who prepped at Belmont using the Jockey Club Gold Cup. TJ

[stancaris]

TJ: Your count is correct but the following data will support my view that traveling 3000 miles from the East Coast to California is a clear negative:

I considered any horse that made its last start in New York, New Jersey or Pennsylvania and east coast starter. The following years are the years the BC Classic was held either at Santa Anita or Hollywood Park along with the starters who made their last start in the East and how they finished.

1984- Slew O Gold finished second as the 3-5 favorite, Track Barron, Canadian Factor and Mugatea out of the money.
Total Starters (8) Total Starters that had last start in EAST (4).

1986- Turkoman finished second as the 8-5 favorite. Total Starters 11, total starters from East (1).

1987- Gulch, Afleet and Cryptoclearance all ran out of the money. Total Starters12, total from East (3).

1993- Bertrando ran second as 6-5 favorite, Diazo, Devil his Due, Missionary Ridge, Miners Mark, Colonial Affair and Marquetry were all out of the money. Total starters 13, total East Coasters (7).

1997-Skip Away WON, Dowty, Touch Gold at 5-2, Behrens at 7-2 were out of the money. Total Starters 9, total starters from the East (4).

2003-Dynever ran third, Hold that Tiger, Evening Attire, Funny Cide, and Volponi were out of the money. Total starters
10 , total from the East (5).

2008- Curlin ran out of the money at 4-5 and Colonel john was also out of the money. Total starters 12, Starters from the East (2).

2009- Gio ponti ran second and Girolamo ran out. Total starters 12, total starters from East (2).

2012- Fort Larned WON, Flat Out was third, Ron the Greek, To Honor and Serve, Brilliant Speed, and Alpha all were out of the money. Total starters 12, total from East (6).

2013-Will Take Charge was second, Last Gunfighter, Palace Malice, Flat Out and Moreno were out of the money. Total starters 11, total from the EAST (5).

Analyzing the above data we get a total of 110 starters of which 39 made their last start in the EAST. Of those 39 ONLY 2 won the Classic for a 20% win rate (2 winners in 10 years).

Since 39 of 110 equals 35.5% of the starters the impact value for traveling 3000 miles is a woeful .56 (20% winners divided by 35.5% of the starters). This means that horses that travel 3000 miles from their last start are winning the Classic 44% less often than statistical expectation. They are historically bad bets in the Classic and there were 4 that were very bad bets since they were favored: Turkoman at 8-5, Slew O Gold at 3-5, Bertrando at 6-5, and Curlin at the low odds of 4-5 all lost the Classic after a 3000 mile journey to California.

Tonalist could win this years Classic but based on the above favorites that disappointed it would probably be wiser to run his final race of the year in New York.

[TJ]

If you go by statistics there has never been a winner of the BC Classic in California that last raced in New York.

Hi Stan,
Didn't realize we were discussing shipping?? I thought you simply stated no horses ever won the BC Classic that prepped in NY. It's simple logic that shipping takes quite a bit out of a horse. It will be a very good race and should be hotly contested, may the best horse win and have no excuses. TJ

[jagger]

Don't see any horse bettering Shared Belief in the Classic.