To all: A new trend has developed where 50% of the last 12 Derby winners have made only 2 starts before the first Sat in May. These are: I'll Have Another, Animal Kingdom, Super Saver, Mine That Bird, Big Brown, and Street Sense.
Over the last 12 years horses with only 2 starts comprise around 30% of the starters and 50% of the winners.
Its not a tremendous factor but is something to consider. There is around a 50% chance that the Derby winner has not yet made his 3 year old debut yet. (All 6 of the above winners made NO starts in January).
no. of starts before Derby
Moderators: Roguelet, hpkingjr, WaveMaster, K~2
Re: no. of starts before Derby
Also interesting is the fact that 5 Derby winners in the last 12 made their debut in Feb. In fact 4 of these 12 winners did not make their first start until March of their 3 year old year. Collectively, 9 of the last 12 winners of the roses did not start as a 3 year old until Feb or later.