One Million Dollar GR I Florida Derby

[TJ]

Here's the early post position draw and full field for Saturdays GR I Florida Derby. Upstart drew poorly getting the outside post for his trip. The last horse to win from the outside post in the Florida Derby was Big Brown. Big Brown went on to turn the dreaded outside post position into a lucky charm as he went on to win the Kentucky Derby from the extreme outside post. Currently the overnights haven't been distributed, but should be available tomorrow along with the Past Performances. Will post when they come out. TJ

1. Ami’s Flatter 8/1 3/C L Javier Castellano 123 Josie Carroll
2. Jack Tripp 20/1 3/C L Irad Ortiz Jr 123 Dale L. Romans
3. Indianaughty 20/1 3/G L Corey J. Lanerie 123 Dale L. Romans
4. Itsaknockout 2/1 3/C L Luis Saez 123 Todd A. Pletcher
5. Quimet 20/1 3/C L Edgard Zayas 123 Nicholas P. Zito
6. My Point Exactly 30/1 3/C L Juan C. Leyva 123 William A. Kaplan
7. Materiality 7/2 3/G L John R. Velazquez 123 Todd A. Pletcher
8. Dekabrist 30/1 3/C L Jesus Rios 123 Gennadi Dorochenko
9. Upstart 8/5 3/C L Jose L. Ortiz 123 Ralph M. Evans

[geowarrior]

And who do you like here, TJ?

I just have a niggling feeling that we might have seen the best of Upstart already.

[TJ]

Here is the official entries from the GP overnight. TJ

14th Race. (C14) Post 6:48PM The 68th Running of STAKES
The Besilu Stables Florida Derby (Grade I)
Purse $1,000,000 Guaranteed 1 1/8 Miles
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS.
1 AMI'S FLATTER (L) '12 C 122 Castellano, J Dalos, I Carroll, J
2 JACK TRIPP (L) '12 G 122 Ortiz, Jr., I Baron, R Romans, D
3 INDIANAUGHTY (L) '12 C 122 Lanerie, C Team Valor International Romans, D
4 ITSAKNOCKOUT (L) '12 C 122 Saez, L Starlight Racing Pletcher, T
5 QUIMET (L) '12 G 122 Zayas, E Lucky Shamrock Stable Zito, N
6 MY POINT EXACTLY (L) '12 G 122 Leyva, J Pinnacle Racing Stables, R. Norman, R. Justice and J.Hendricks Kaplan, W
7 MATERIALITY (L) '12 C 122 Velazquez, J Alto Racing, LLC Pletcher, T
8 DEKABRIST (L) '12 C 122 Rios, J Raut LLC Dorochenko, G
9 UPSTART (L) '12 R 122 Ortiz, J Evans, R Violette, Jr., R

[TJ]

And who do you like here, TJ?

I just have a niggling feeling that we might have seen the best of Upstart already.

Hi Geo,
I will wait to post who I like till the PP's come out. There is also a threat of rain Thursday, Friday and Saturday for Hallandale. Off the top of my head, I think it will be Upstart and Materiality as the two top contenders and Itsaknockout and Ami's Flatter picking up the pieces? TJ

[TJ]

Okay, finally put up the past performances:>) TJ
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewe ... m3=2002910

[TJ]

No changes Geo:>) TJ
Materiality
Upstart
Itsaknockout
Ami's Flatter

[Cree]

Ami's Flatter
Materiality
Upstart

[geowarrior]

Well, it seems on paper to be between Materiality and Upstart. Sentiment (Afleet Alex) and price lead me to the following:

Materiality
Upstart
Ami's Flatter

Hard to say how the race is going to shape up though, as there are plenty of stalkers.

[dublino]

Upstart to beat materiality - surely upstart learned a bit from his last start and copes with the wide draw and wins.

Not the best fl derby we have seen in the last few years? Strange really should be a lot better maybe too many ways now to qualify for the ky derby? Fields seem to be lacking a bit of quality this year?

[Cree]

Agree with you there. It seems there are 1 or 2 real stand-outs per race and the rest are, well, the rest. It is hard to see into the future, but this crop is strange. Seems to be a handful of A horses, and then no real B horses, and then plenty of C horses.
Maybe they will turn out to be the best in awhile? I am curious about the Pletcher horse tomorrow. He seemed like the real deal last year, but that might have been the Hype machine working a little hard.

[TJ]

Here's the race replay....run over a slow and tiring dried out racetrack, which was given a 30 track variant. It's been a long time since we've seen so many 100+ beyer figures going into a Kentucky Derby field. Materiality was awarded a 110 beyer and NY Bred Upstart shakes out to about 107? Looks like Materiality must now overcome the "curse of Apollo" going forward to the Kentucky Derby. TJ
http://www1.drf.com/displayVideo.do?tra ... ountry=USA

[dublino]

What was the difference between materialities interference with upstart and upstart in the fountain of youth?

Afraid to throw out a baffert or pletcher horse in a Grade 1????

Stewards baffle me, did you see anything wrong here TJ? Or is it just me again?

[TJ]

What was the difference between materialities interference with upstart and upstart in the fountain of youth?

Afraid to throw out a baffert or pletcher horse in a Grade 1????

Stewards baffle me, did you see anything wrong here TJ? Or is it just me again?

Hi Dub,
Though I thought the Upstart DQ could have gone either way, yesterday there was also a reason for a claim. BUT, as it turned out, Ortiz (rider of Upstart) lodged a claim of foul, but the stewards said Ortiz waited too long to make his objection heard and the race was all ready declared official. TJ

http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/horse ... 32283.html

[Cree]

Can someone explain that 110 Beyer to me? Did I watch a different Florida Derby than Beyer?

[TJ]

Can someone explain that 110 Beyer to me? Did I watch a different Florida Derby than Beyer?

Hi Cree,
GP was playing very slow...Saturday the track was totally dried out and deep due to strong winds. They couldn't keep the moisture in the track so it was playing like running on the beach 15 feet away from the waters edge:>) The track variant was 30 by the time the Fl. Derby came around, meaning it was playing 6 seconds over par. TJ