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 Post subject: On To The Derby
PostPosted: Sat Apr 11, 2015 7:34 pm 
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What a great points race this season, with 30 points being the lowest total as compared to 20 in previous years. Unless we get injuries or defections for another reason, we have a solid group of 3YO's in the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby. Besides Baffert with 3 runners, Pletcher has 4 (Madefromlucky missed out after his 4th place finish in the Arkansas Derby, he's on the bubble). Zayat Stable owns 3, American Pharoah, El Kabeir and Mr. Z. Stonestreet Stable owns 2 in partnership, Stanford and Carpe Diem. Here's the current top twenty. TJ

2015 Kentucky Derby Points Standings

1 International Star Mike Maker 171 $940,979

2 Dortmund Bob Baffert 170 $1,230,000

3 Carpe Diem Todd Pletcher 164 $1,470,000

4 American Pharoah Bob Baffert 160 $1,410,000

5 Frosted Kiaran McLaughlin 113 $776,200

6 Mubtaahij-IRE Mike de Kock 100 $1,400,000

7 Materiality Todd Pletcher 100 $632,028

8 El Kabeir John Terranova II 95 $720,792

9 Upstart Rick Violette, Jr. 76 $807,680

10 Far Right Ron Moquette 62 $585,906

11 Itsaknockout Todd Pletcher 60 $288,560

12 Firing Line Simon Callaghan 58 $530,000

13 Danzig Moon Mark Casse 45 $217,500

14 War Story Tom Amoss 44 $195,000

15 Tencendur George Weaver 41 $224,500

One Lucky Dane Bob Baffert 40 $200,000.....OUT

16 Stanford Todd Pletcher 40 $151,400

17 Mr. Z D. Wayne Lukas 34 $625,826

18 Ocho Ocho Ocho Jim Cassidy 30 $760,250

19 Bolo Carla Gaines 30 $214,980

Madefromlucky Todd Pletcher 30 $200,000.....OUT

20 Keen Ice Dale Romans 22 $136,520



23 Frammento Nick Zito 20 $92,800
24 Bold Conquest Steve Asmussen 17 $192,176
25 The Truth or Else Kenny McPeek 11 $180,167
26 Metaboss Jeff Bonde 10 $136,450
27 Firespike Mike Maker 10 $51,816
28 Toasting Master Dale Romans 5 $31,000
29 Task Force Glory Mike Maker 5 $29,625
30 Cross the Line Jerry Hollendorfer 4 $120,000
31 Another Lemon Drop Phil Bauer 1 $25,500


Last edited by TJ on Fri Apr 24, 2015 12:38 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: On To The Derby
PostPosted: Sun Apr 12, 2015 4:18 am 
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I read somewhere (I can't remember which publication) that Ocho x3 might go to the Derby Trial (is that the Pat Day?). And have they released anything about Bolo, whether he will go or not?

I am personally quite pleased that Ami's Flatter has been taken out of the running for the Derby - I have Queens Plate tickets this year, and I worried the Derby would set him back for the big race up here.


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 Post subject: Re: On To The Derby
PostPosted: Sun Apr 12, 2015 8:21 am 
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Cree wrote:
I read somewhere (I can't remember which publication) that Ocho x3 might go to the Derby Trial (is that the Pat Day?). And have they released anything about Bolo, whether he will go or not?

I am personally quite pleased that Ami's Flatter has been taken out of the running for the Derby - I have Queens Plate tickets this year, and I worried the Derby would set him back for the big race up here.

Hi Cree,
Yes, Cassidy did say both options were on the table because Ocho was a very tired horse after the Blue Grass. Prior to that he was bounced around pretty good in his troubled trip in the San Felipe. He came out with cuts on both front legs, so he never really got anything out of the race fitness wise. Now that the dust has cleared and he is in the Derby lineup, the decision will be made by Cassidy according to how well Ocho bounces back.
No word from the trainer concerning Bolo, but Mike Smith said he expects Bolo will return to the grass. Try and tell that to the owners now that they drew in:>) He is owned by Stronach and a couple other executives at his SA and GP racetracks (Tim Ritvo at GP, is part owner and his wife trained Kathy trained Mucho Macho Man). Seems like the Derby field will be in flux for a while yet. TJ


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 Post subject: Re: On To The Derby
PostPosted: Thu Apr 16, 2015 9:00 pm 
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Frammento with 20 Derby points and number 23 on the Derby list, worked an easy 1/2 at Keeneland this morning for NP Zito. Zito thinks he has a chance to draw in, judging by the number of calls he's been getting from jock agents. Good agents get all the news that's fit to print, long before it goes public:>) TJ


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 Post subject: Re: On To The Derby
PostPosted: Fri Apr 17, 2015 6:02 am 
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I think they would be crazy to send Stanford in this race. He looks like he would pull a Palace Malice in the Derby (not in a good way!). I think he's a nice colt, but I don't think he's anywhere near some of these horses.

Although I really like Ocho x3, I think he's better suited to the Derby Trial (Pat Day?). He will get squished in the Derby. He has a lot of speed, but so do a whole handful of them. (ie. Stanford)

I'm of the opinion that you can't win with Mr. Z. He has shown time and again that he can't run a straight course, and especially in a race like this.... yikes. He could be the one that gets in the way of American Pharoah!!! The owners have 2 nice colts that have actual chances in El Kabeir and AP.

Derby Fever is a real thing.


Last edited by Cree on Sat Apr 18, 2015 10:11 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: On To The Derby
PostPosted: Fri Apr 17, 2015 6:49 am 
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Hi Cree,
I think Stanford proved he belongs in the Derby. He was odds on when he ran against Materiality and looked as if he would win the race, but veered out sharply at the 3/4 pole. He really wasn't ready for that mile and an eighth. It was his first start around two turns off a 6f 3YO debut, then came back and ran a very good race giving International Star (who is undefeated as a 3YO in graded stakes) all he could handle. He seems to be getting good at the right time...his chart reads like an adventure in learning, broke slow, bobbled start, bumped start, veered out...then moved into graded company for the first time and ran very well minus any negative comments. I doubt he's one dimensional, he's working very well and I think he can rate? He breezed a 1/2 in company with Materiality last Saturday and they were head to head (48.50), finishing strongly....last 1/4 in 22.50.
No word yet on Ocho's plans, but he will have his work cut out for him in the Pat Day as Competitive Edge has been pointed for that spot since his 3YO debut.
We both know if Lukas has a horse that can breath in the body of the race, he's running:-) Unless of course, Zayat says no?
I wish we knew which jock agent's were calling Zito, could tip us off as to who may withdraw. These agents are sharp and most know what they are looking at. They have access to all the stables and could have seen some getting around poorly??
No matter who ends up in the gate, we are in for a treat....just hope it pans out and the winner is actually as special as these past performances have suggested. It should be a "Battle Royale". TJ


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 Post subject: Re: On To The Derby
PostPosted: Fri Apr 17, 2015 3:55 pm 
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I read somewhere that the owners of Bolo are divided.

I'm also on the fence myself as to whether he belongs in the Derby.


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 Post subject: Re: On To The Derby
PostPosted: Sat Apr 18, 2015 9:45 am 
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One Lucky Dane has been pulled up at the 3/4 during his work. Reportedly lost his shoe. Walked on to horse ambulance. They will do a nuclear scan.
This now:
Jay Privman @DRFPrivman ·
Baffert said One Lucky Dane out of Derby regardless of what radiographs say.


Materiality and Stanford worked this morning, and apparently Materiality was a beast.


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 Post subject: Re: On To The Derby
PostPosted: Sat Apr 18, 2015 10:18 am 
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Cree wrote:
One Lucky Dane has been pulled up at the 3/4 during his work. Reportedly lost his shoe. Walked on to horse ambulance. They will do a nuclear scan.
This now:
Jay Privman @DRFPrivman ·
Baffert said One Lucky Dane out of Derby regardless of what radiographs say.


Materiality and Stanford worked this morning, and apparently Materiality was a beast.

Hi Cree,
To bad about One Lucky Dane:-( Quite a few Derby contenders were out this AM including International Star, Danzig Moon, Keen Ice, Tencendur, Dortmund, Firing Line as did Itsaknockout, Stanford and Carpe Diem. Johnny V worked both Materiality (in Florida) and Carpe Diem (in Keeneland), he and Pletcher jumped in a private jet and went for Carpe Diem's work. With this defection Madefromlucky will draw in, giving Pletcher 5 if he opts to go with him. TJ


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 Post subject: Re: On To The Derby
PostPosted: Sat Apr 18, 2015 2:52 pm 
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Without seeing any of the others, I though Dortmund looked very impressive in his work.


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 Post subject: Re: On To The Derby
PostPosted: Sun Apr 19, 2015 8:06 am 
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Here's Saturday's (4/18) works:

Materiality and Stanford worked 5/8ths as a team at Palm Beach Downs, both hitting the wire together in 1:00.45 seconds.

Itsaknockout and Competitive Edge (Pat Day) worked a 1/2 mile together at PBD in 48 flat.

Carpe Diem had an easy maintenance breeze at Keeneland going a 1/2 mile in 48 flat. He galloped out 5/8ths in 1:00.40 and pulled up 3/4's 1:13.80. Pretty impressive, John Velazquez will have a big decision to make between Materiality and Carpe Diem in the Derby. Gotta think Castellano (who is looking for a Derby mount) will take the one JV turns down.

Dortmund worked a fast 5/8ths in company with two others at SA, one mate broke off 5 in front of him, then a fresh one tried to push him at the finish (never happened:>). He was extremely impressive going 5/8ths in 58.80 seconds, Here is the video, take note how happy Baffert and his owner look after the work. He galloped out strong and was looking for more when he was done. I'm thinking he's a better horse then American Pharoah. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1u-qvoESni4

Firing Line working under Gary Stevens went 5/8ths at SA in 1:00.40, while galloping out strongly.

Kentucky Derby points leader (171 points) International Star worked 5/8ths in 1:01.80 at CD in company with Dreams Cut Short who went in 1:02.60. He galloped out 3/4's in 1:15.

Keen Ice worked at CD with Tammy Fox aboard going 3/4's in 1:13.20 seconds and galloped out 7/8ths in 1:27.60. Keen Ice would need another defection as he's currently on the bubble.

Danzig Moon, a bit on edge, worked a strong 5/8ths in 58 flat in company with Tepin at CD. He galloped out 3/4's in 1:12.1. He took the measure of Julien Leparoux early on going off faster then his connections hoped for.

Tencendur turned in a bullet work at Belmont Park going a 1/2 mile in 47.16.


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 Post subject: Re: On To The Derby
PostPosted: Sun Apr 19, 2015 10:35 am 
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I've narrowed my picks to Frosted and Stanford.

I have to check the prices but frosted is around 16/1 and Stanford 40/1 with 1/5 odds e/w 3 places.

Barring any late mishaps they are my picks.

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 Post subject: Re: On To The Derby
PostPosted: Sun Apr 19, 2015 12:20 pm 
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dublino wrote:
I've narrowed my picks to Frosted and Stanford.

I have to check the prices but frosted is around 16/1 and Stanford 40/1 with 1/5 odds e/w 3 places.

Barring any late mishaps they are my picks.

Hi Dub,
I have both those on my radar as I am very interested in how the Bold Ruler sire line performs this season. Don't know if you saw this, but I answered a post by Bobster asking about Derby Angles and I posted this.

Hi Bob,
I agree with you, any and all information helps when trying to predict the winner of the Derby or any race for that matter....and thanks for sharing.
I read both your articles so far concerning these angles. Interesting concerning Storm Cat and the quality Derby contenders that carry his blood this year. Also read your Turn-To angle and a rare occurrence turns up this year, with the direct Turn-To sire line appearing in Bolo. The last time a direct Turn-To sire line winner was seen was Barbaro in 2006, you have to go back to Sunday Silence in 1989 to find it again. Only 5 have been seen in the last 60 years. The Raise A Native sire line has long been a factor in Derby winners, though RAN usually appears in so many of the Derby starters.
One thing I've noticed and will follow closely this year is the Bold Ruler sire line. When the Raise A Native and Bold Ruler sire line came on the Derby scene (1969 and 1970 respectively), the Bold Ruler line was dominant from 1969-1980 winning 7 against Raise A Native's 3. Then Raise A Native took charge and remained the top Derby sire line till present day. The Bold Ruler sire line hadn't been heard from since 1984 (Swale)....then in 2013 the Bold Ruler sire line mysteriously emerged with back to back sire line wins (Orb, 2013 and California Chrome, 2014). I will be looking closely at that line this season. The last time the Bold Ruler sire line produced two Derby winners in a row....he didn't stop there while continuing on with 5 in a row 1973-1977. The Bold Ruler sire line will be represented this year by Frosted, Upstart, Danzig Moon, Stanford and Mr. Z. TJ


There is little doubt that this Derby is one of the toughest to come to terms with in years, not to mention a deep and contentious quality field. All the prep races have been fairly form-ful and it may look easy to some who take things at face value, but will the Derby be the Derby and bust these forgone conclusions as it has so many times before? It's just as hard to try to decide on the best of the best, with so many 3YO's with triple digit beyers, 2 undefeated runners (Dortmund and Materiality) and 3 undefeated in their 3YO season (American Pharoah, Carpe Diem, International Star). Let's not forget Mubtaahij who has won twice going 1 3/16ths miles while beating the older Uruguayan TC winner Sir Fever twice. He is only the second horse to run in the Derby who ran two times in races over 1 1/8th miles, the other was Cannonero II. Pretty amazing when you add in breeding and the Storm Bird angle and a maze of other angles, handicapping, pace, jockeys, trainers and post position concerns while they all must continue to train forwardly and hopefully get to the Derby happy and healthy. TJ


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 Post subject: Re: On To The Derby
PostPosted: Sun Apr 19, 2015 12:28 pm 
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Looks like Bolo is in....Rafael Bejarano will ride after One Lucky Dane's injury. TJ


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 Post subject: Re: On To The Derby
PostPosted: Sun Apr 19, 2015 12:38 pm 
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El Kabeir worked a strong 5/8ths at Belmont Park today 4/19. He was timed in 100.18 seconds. Zayat's other two, American Pharoah and Mr.Z both galloped. TJ


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