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 Post subject: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2015 4:59 pm 
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Here's the entries and post positions for Kentucky Derby 141. Past Performances will be posted as soon as they come out. TJ

11th RACE. (C11) Post 6:34PM Stakes
The 141st Running of THE KENTUCKY DERBY (Grade I)
PURSE $2,000,000 1 1/4 Mile
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS.

1 OCHO OCHO OCHO (L) Cassidy, J Trujillo, E 126
2 CARPE DIEM (L) E0 Pletcher, T Velazquez, J 126
3 MATERIALITY (L) E0 Pletcher, T Castellano, J 126
4 TENCENDUR (L) E0 Weaver, G Franco, M 126
5 DANZIG MOON (L) E0 Casse, M Leparoux, J 126
6 MUBTAAHIJ (IRE) E0 de Kock, M Soumillon, C 126
7 EL KABEIR (L) Terranova, II, J Borel, C 126
8 DORTMUND (L) E0 Baffert, B Garcia, M 126
9 BOLO (L) Gaines, C Bejarano, R 126
10 FIRING LINE (L) E3 Callaghan, S Stevens, G 126
11 STANFORD (L) E0 Pletcher, T Geroux, F 126............SCRATCHED.........
12 INTERNATIONAL STAR (L) E0 Maker, M Mena, M 126
13 ITSAKNOCKOUT (L) E0 Pletcher, T Saez, L 126
14 KEEN ICE (L) E0 Romans, D Desormeaux, K 126
15 FROSTED (L) E3 McLaughlin, K Rosario, J 126
16 WAR STORY (L) E0 Amoss, T Talamo, J 126
17 MR. Z (L) E0 Lukas, D Vazquez, R 126
18 AMERICAN PHAROAH (L) E0 Baffert, B Espinoza, V 126
19 UPSTART (L) E3 Violette, Jr., R Ortiz, J 126
20 FAR RIGHT (L) Moquett, R Smith, M 126
21 FRAMMENTO (L) E0 Zito, N Nakatani, C 126
--Also Eligible--
22 TALE OF VERVE (L) E0 Stewart, D Hernandez, Jr, B 126


Last edited by TJ on Thu Apr 30, 2015 9:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2015 7:09 pm 
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Here's what we've all been waiting for, the past performances. Good luck with your handicapping. TJ
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/K ... erby15.pdf


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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2015 5:55 pm 
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Well, I have been looking long and hard all day. I've narrowed it down. I don't know if I can actually pick a winner, but I have what I think are 4 horses who have a real shot of running in the top 4. I am being realistic - there is no way I could actually get this right.

Frosted - he is coming into this wonderfully. I love the way he won the Wood. I love the way he has been working and galloping. His running style (I think) gives him a real advantage. I think there is so much speed in here, he can lay off it and if he gets a clear path, make a run for that finish line. I never thought I would like a Tapit for the Derby, but there are so many horses this year with pedigrees that don't look like 1 1/4 mile pedigrees, his is one of the better ones.
Upstart - admittedly, he has a terrible post. But he is one of the fastest and most consistent horses in this race, and I think if he can get in position behind American Pharoah, he can overcome that post. We can all admit Gulfstream was a bit weird in his last 2 races. The knock is that he was sick recently, but he's bounced out of it well, and he is looking REALLY good physically. I can't not like him.
Firing Line - I am really drawn to this horse. He has been training like a monster, maybe he is a little fresh. What I like about him is that he is quick and has a good post, he can lay just off the pace and get first run on the pace. He might not have the pedigree for it, but like I said, a lot of them don't.
Carpe Diem - I have always liked this colt. I just really hate that post position. Last time he had adversity, he ran 2nd to Texas Red (who freaked, IMO). I think Carpe Diem can at least be in my superfecta. I love the way this colt trains and races. He doesn't look like he's really been extended this year in either of his races. Good horses can overcome bad posts.

I am going to let American Pharoah beat me.

The one horse that I want to really like is Mubtaahij. Word is that he is cool as a cucumber and a real professional. I also think he has a good running style for this race. I don't know how to compare his races to the races here, but I think the distance suits him. He seems like a real class colt. I just don't know enough about him to feel 100% sure about him.

Longshot gallore - Tencendur. He is big and still learning, but he ran a pretty good race last time too. They are already talking Belmont for him, so they must think he has got some stamina.

Frosted
Upstart
Firing Line
Carpe Diem

Good luck and safe trips to all.


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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 4:04 am 
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Leave Frammento out of all the eactas, tris and supers at your own risk :) I think Firing Line and War Story are definitely going to give it a go as well.


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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 6:19 am 
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I forgot Frammento drew in. I think he probably is a better longshot choice over Tencendur. Just threw the big horse in there because I like the slow learners.
Frammento is a really nice looking animal.


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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 6:21 am 
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How do you throw out perfection? This is the toughest Derby ever...you usually could settle on throwing out at least 1/2 the Derby field, but not so this year. I spent more time looking at these past performances then I ever did studying in school and then as now I still wasn't sure:>) A total flyer here...but in past experience when opinions are unclear, I cut back my bet, or pass it all together and watch them win:>) So here goes...as Harvey Pack always said, "May the horse be with you". TJ

Mubtaahij...He's up against it, but I'm counting on Mike deKock to work his magic.
Frosted...Looks to have come to hand at the right time, Rosario makes the difference.
Dortmund...Hard to fault and game as they come.
Carpe Diem...Post position hurts and so does his being headstrong around the gate...relying on JV to be correct in making the right choice?
Upstart...He's been a hard luck horse, might track off American Pharoah and get a good trip from way out there?


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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 7:11 am 
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El Kabeir has a foot bruise and didn't train this morning. They will make a decision tomorrow morning it sounds.
If this happens, the posts move out from 1... may help Carpe Diem a little to move to PP 3?


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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 7:35 am 
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Cree wrote:
El Kabeir has a foot bruise and didn't train this morning. They will make a decision tomorrow morning it sounds.
If this happens, the posts move out from 1... may help Carpe Diem a little to move to PP 3?

Hi Cree,
Unbelievable....as smooth as this went getting here and now one thing after the other last minute. If Stewart draws in 3 years in a row I have to throw out my picks and start all over. He's been the last one in and ran 2nd the last two years....3 years would be unreal. TJ


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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 7:38 am 
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Check that last thought. The scratch is all ready in for Stewart's horse. TJ


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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 8:18 am 
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i just read Cree post, and those are my picks, too.


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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 8:43 am 
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Hi Cree and TJ,

I always appreciate reading your picks and insights. I am a little surprised that AP was not in either of your picks.

I had a Warriors Reward colt last night so I hope Tencendur makes his dad proud.


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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 8:55 am 
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wgc517 wrote:
Hi Cree and TJ,

I always appreciate reading your picks and insights. I am a little surprised that AP was not in either of your picks.

I had a Warriors Reward colt last night so I hope Tencendur makes his dad proud.

Hi wgc,
How are you? Don't put a lot of stock in what I said....it's hard to throw out a horse like AP, who looks like a potential champ. International Star is also undefeated this season. It's just a Derby that forces your hand with the great contestants in this field.....you have to throw out very good horses. The post positions also played a big part and looks like they will change again if El Kabeir scratches. Might have to take another look or maybe I'll be better off just playing golf and watching the fight Saturday instead of the Derby:>) TJ


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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 9:26 am 
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Don't get me wrong, I think American Pharoah can win this. I will not be surprised to see him win it, and I will surely celebrate the wonders of his talent if he does. I also know I am taking a risk not including Dortmund, but he doesn't appear to be too calm in the few videos I've seen - and it could be worse tomorrow (total meltdown). Carpe Diem is heralded as the head case of this Derby field, but at least I know what I've gotten myself into - he is always like that. Dortmund looked like a ticking time bomb the other day.

I just wanted some value, and I think the 4 I picked are all solid, fast horses with good chances. I may have picked those 4 on how they look, all 4 of them look incredible. The one I am most unsure of is Firing Line, but he's a good looking, good feeling horse that I cannot ignore.


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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 10:32 am 
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Dortmund
Frosted
Materiality
American Pharoah

Longshots: Bolo, Far Right, International Star


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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 1:11 pm 
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El Kabeir has been scratched. DRF just retweeted a tweet from Justin Zayat.


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