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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 5:34 pm 
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As most everyone, I am having a hard time eliminating at least 7 of these horses, however, I have been a fan of American Pharoah since last year and I know he lacks on his female side but I do think he will win. Dortmund actually is my top figure for the race, but I think he must beat Pharoah for the roses.

American Pharoah
Dortmund
Frosted
Carpe Diem
Materiality

I will play the $1 pick 4 in races 8-11, 4,5,8 with 2,4 with 9,10 with 8,18 for a total cost of $24. I will also play exactas keying my top 2.

I hope you all cash tickets and the horses have a safe journey.

Good luck to all.

DDT


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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 5:47 pm 
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Here's the current odds for Derby 141, there are some juicy prices on the board:>) TJ

1. Ocho Ocho Ocho (E. Trujillo), 28-1

2. Carpe Diem (J. Velazquez), 7-1

3. Materiality (J. Castellano), 17-1

4. Tencendur (M. Franco), 61-1

5. Danzig Moon (J. Leparoux), 19-1

6. Mubtaahij (C. Soumillon), 16-1

7. El Kabeir - SCRATCHED

8. Dortmund (M. Garcia), 9-2

9. Bolo (R. Bejarano), 48-1

10. Firing Line (G. Stevens), 10-1

11. Stanford - SCRATCHED

12. International Star (M. Mena), 19-1

13. Itsaknockout (L. Saez), 34-1

14. Keen Ice (K. Desormeaux), 29-1

15. Frosted (J. Rosario), 9-1

16. War Story (J. Talamo), 43-1

17. Mr. Z (R. Vazquez), 27-1

18. American Pharoah (V. Espinoza), 5-2

19. Upstart (J. Ortiz), 32-1

20. Far Right (M. Smith), 42-1

21. Frammento (C. Nakatani), 99-1

AE – Tale of Verve - SCRATCHED


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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 7:34 pm 
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Juicy indeed. Upstart 32-1?!? At one point this spring he was the favourite.


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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 7:57 pm 
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Does anyone know the actually changes in post positions after the two scratches? I read where American Pharoah ends up breaking from post 16 which means Upstart would get 17....the post that never produced a Derby winner. If AP breaks from the 16 post, I might have to make a change (can anyone say collusion in the Zayat camp:>)....the auxiliary gate (15-20) has produced 9 winners of the last 20 Derby's. Post 16 led them all with 4. TJ


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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2015 5:16 am 
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The scratch of Stanford, moved AP, Upstart, Far Right in one. Frammento has post 20. AP gets post 17.
The scratch of El Kabeir, moved Ocho Ocho Ocho, Carpe Diem, Materiality, Tencendur, Danzig Moon, and Mubtaahij one more off the rail.
Post one is now empty.


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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2015 7:17 am 
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It just keeps getting more bizarre.
Word is International Star was a vet scratch....and as a result all of Ramseys horses have scratched.
They move down from 20 I think.
AP in post 16 now.


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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2015 7:35 am 
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Cree wrote:
It just keeps getting more bizarre.
Word is International Star was a vet scratch....and as a result all of Ramseys horses have scratched.
They move down from 20 I think.
AP in post 16 now.

Hi Cree,
I just went through the new post positions and was ready to make a post. With the International Star scratch, at this point I think I'm going back to the drawing board because If AP gets 16, I think he will be able to overcome his breeding and win from that most productive post position. TJ


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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2015 7:56 am 
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Correction : not all of Ramseys horses have scratched. Stephanie's Kitten and Coalport are out of the Woodford Reserve. No word as to why, but rumor is that Ramsey was NOT delighted to hear of International Star's ailment.
I am sticking with my picks, with the thought that American Pharoah will most likely win, and that's ok. I would like to see McLaughin or Violette win.


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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2015 8:24 am 
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Cree wrote:
It just keeps getting more bizarre.
Word is International Star was a vet scratch....and as a result all of Ramseys horses have scratched.
They move down from 20 I think.
AP in post 16 now.

Hi Cree,
As you thought and according to what I just read, the 1 and 20 post positions will be left vacant. So here's the way I see the current field with their new post positions. If they scratch another horse, I'm playing golf and the heck with this Derby:>) I will be making changes to my original picks. TJ

1. PP. 2 Ocho Ocho Ocho (126) Trujillo/Cassidy 50-1

2. PP 3 Carpe Diem (126) Velazquez/Pletcher 8-1

3. PP 4 Materiality (126) Castellano/Pletcher 12-1

4. PP 5 Tencendur (126) Franco/Weaver 30-1

5. PP 6 Danzig Moon (126) Leparoux/Casse 30-1

6. PP 7 Mubtaahij (126) Soumillon/de Kock 20-1

8. PP 8 Dortmund (126) Garcia/Baffert 3-1

9. PP 9 Bolo (126) Bejarano/Gaines 30-1

10. PP 10 Firing Line (126) Stevens/Callaghan 12-1

With the Stanford scratch, who was in post 11 we see this:

Now With the International Star scratch who had post 11:

13. PP 11 Itsaknockout (126) Saez/Pletcher 30-1

14. PP 12 Keen Ice (126) Desormeaux/Romans 50-1

15. PP 13 Frosted (126) Rosario/McLaughlin 15-1

16. PP 14 War Story (126) Talamo/Amoss 50-1

17. PP 15 Mr. Z (126) Vazquez/Lukas 50-1

18. PP 16 American Pharoah (126) Espinoza/Baffert 5-2

19. PP 17 Upstart (126) Ortiz/Violette 15-1

20. PP 18 Far Right (126) Smith/Moquett 30-1

21. PP 19 Frammento (126) Nakatani/Zito 50-1

After reviewing the new post positions (and if I didn't mess it up:>) I see a couple major shifts. TJ

American Pharoah...it seems like the stars have aligned for him, ending up with post positions 16, one of the best a horse could have out of the Auxiliary gate. With this I believe he can overcome his breeding, speed from that position is very tough to beat, he's in the proverbial catbird seat:>)
Upstart...a hard luck horse, gets post 17 which has never produced a Derby winner and the last in the money runner was Forty Niner in 1988.
Frosted who had a good position in the auxiliary gate, now moves in two slots in the main gate to post 13. It is better then the 14 which he was in, so he won't be penalized with this spot.
Firing Line finds himself in a good post position coming out of the 10 slot.
Dortmund was never shuffled by the scratches and retained his 8 post position, which is a very good spot to be in.
Mubtaahij benefits with his move to a more productive PP 7....Street Sense (2007) was the last winner from post 7 and Bodemeister the last in the money.
Ocho Ocho Ocho, Carpe Diem, Materiality all benefit slightly with the move off the rail.
Tencendur moves to post 5 a very productive post overall and in the last 20 years.


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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2015 9:14 am 
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I am happy with my 16/1 odds I got on frosted, still can't have AP being out of a storm cat line mare.

That big beast Dortmund worries me.

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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2015 10:09 am 
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Competitive Edge = wow. He is a nice colt!
Baffert hasn't had any winners yesterday or today.
I'm sticking with my picks. The track seems relatively fair.


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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2015 10:21 am 
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dublino wrote:
I am happy with my 16/1 odds I got on frosted, still can't have AP being out of a storm cat line mare.

That big beast Dortmund worries me.

Hi Dub,
Your odds won't change, right? He's 9-1 here right now. TJ


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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2015 10:22 am 
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Cree wrote:
Competitive Edge = wow. He is a nice colt!
Baffert hasn't had any winners yesterday or today.
I'm sticking with my picks. The track seems relatively fair.

Hi Cree,
Pletcher missed the boat with this guy. If he was only ready for the Derby, but now we have a solid spoiler for the Preakness. TJ


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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2015 10:26 am 
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If anyone is looking for current Derby contender odds, click on this link. TJ
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/racing-wag ... -live-odds


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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2015 10:44 am 
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Yeah my odds won't change unless he goes off at a bigger price then I get the best odds guarantee sometimes fixed odds betting has its advantages, although I like horses coupled a pity they don't do that over here stops the trainers and bookmakers fleecing the public.

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