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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2015 11:18 am 
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dublino wrote:
Yeah my odds won't change unless he goes off at a bigger price then I get the best odds guarantee sometimes fixed odds betting has its advantages, although I like horses coupled a pity they don't do that over here stops the trainers and bookmakers fleecing the public.

That's good Dub...he's still sitting at 9-1 here. It would be nice to see him win it. I have a number of friends in this Derby and one of the nicest guys is Frosted's trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. He's only 55 and has been dealing with Muscular Sclerosis for a long time....he's a Kentucky boy and winning the Derby is his dream. Hope you cash your ticket. TJ


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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2015 11:23 am 
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After Competitive Edge breaking ack ack's 1969 stakes record I get the feeling Churchill Downs have set this Derby up for a speed duel, I hope it doesn't backfire in their face and we have some breakdowns.

I feel my money is done on frosted - I think this will be a Baffert 1-2.

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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2015 11:56 am 
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dublino wrote:
After Competitive Edge breaking ack ack's 1969 stakes record I get the feeling Churchill Downs have set this Derby up for a speed duel, I hope it doesn't backfire in their face and we have some breakdowns.

I feel my money is done on frosted - I think this will be a Baffert 1-2.


Don't give up yet. Maybe Competitive Edge is just that good.


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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2015 12:04 pm 
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dublino wrote:
After Competitive Edge breaking ack ack's 1969 stakes record I get the feeling Churchill Downs have set this Derby up for a speed duel, I hope it doesn't backfire in their face and we have some breakdowns.

I feel my money is done on frosted - I think this will be a Baffert 1-2.

Hi Dub,
No doubt the track is fast, but Competitive Edge is a very good horse. He was working better then any of Pletcher's Derby contenders. He just wasn't ready soon enough to get make the 3YO Derby prep races. TJ


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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2015 12:12 pm 
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Without doubt Competitive Edge is a super horse after his G1 win as a 2yr old being by super saver a derby winner he was on my Derby radar, he has shown that he has trained on and is one of the most exciting horses in america - what a 3yr old crop we have.

Watching the race and the Humana Distaff in which Dame Dorothy won its all about being at the front end.

There will be no excuses for Pharaoh or Dortmund they have the track to suit.

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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2015 12:38 pm 
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Here's today's track variant's so far....Track variant for races 1,4,5 is 6, for races 3,6 is 9, for races 2,7 is 10 .


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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2015 1:26 pm 
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Private Zone gate to wire

https://youtu.be/mBQDxu3UOWU

It's a front runners track.

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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2015 1:42 pm 
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So far today that is proving about 50% true.. definitely not a closing track. Ugh that obnoxious little Bob Costa just popped up on the network tv..

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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2015 2:15 pm 
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dublino wrote:
Private Zone gate to wire

https://youtu.be/mBQDxu3UOWU

It's a front runners track.

Hi Dub,
Big difference between one turn sprints and a mile and a quarter out of the chute. Don't forget all the time before the Derby field gets on the track. Last year everyone thought the race was slow, but all that time between races caused the track to be slow as the wind blew and the track dried out. Could have a repeat of that here with an hour and a half wait till the Derby runs. Hopefully they will keep the water truck going:>) TJ


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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2015 2:34 pm 
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Espinoza's win in the woodford reserve no jockey has won that and the derby same year, lol another clutching at straws moment for those of us opposing the Pharaoh.... :lol:

I just hope that big beast Dortmund doesn't win so awkward looking.

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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2015 4:04 pm 
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The track was a joke set up for Bafferts horses, sad really that an American Classic race can be fiddled in such a manner.

First 3 home were first 3 to the first turn unfair on a field of 20 to have such a bias.

Frosted ran great coming in 4th showed what a class horse he is on a fair track he is a match for anyone of the horses ahead of him.

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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2015 4:10 pm 
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It was a very slow pace. Frosted did run very well, and so did Materiality after a bad start.


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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2015 6:14 pm 
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No surprises in the Derby, the favourite won.

I thought Firing Line ran his eyeballs out, chasing that big oaf, passing him (yay! finally!), only to have AP run him down. I also thought Frosted ran a commendable race and was the only horse from the pack that made any real run at the top 3. I have to say it wasn't the most exciting race in the world, watching the first 3 run 1-2-3 all the way around, but that's that.

What are people's thoughts on the time? They went fast over 3/4 but I haven't really looked at the last splits. I didn't think they came home fast at all. I don't see any of those 3 stretching out in the Belmont distance. If we're questioning their pedigrees going into the 10 furlong Derby, we have to question their pedigrees going into the 12 furlong Belmont, right?

Comments on the day - I loved seeing Finnegans Wake win the Woodford Reserve. That horse has really gotten into a groove, which is nice to see.
Judy the Beauty's tough loss broke my heart, she really ran her eyeballs out.
Finally, Bayern really needs that lead or he does nothing. Like, nothing at all.

AND, in other news, really nice win by Tonalist who sort of just plodded along for half the race and then suddenly woke up and ran down the other 3 in his race. He is a Belmont horse through and through.


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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Sun May 03, 2015 12:40 am 
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Tonalist plodded? What was the time of his mile, yes a mile. At least 2f short of a trip he requires.

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 Post subject: Re: Gr I Kentucky Derby
PostPosted: Sun May 03, 2015 5:34 am 
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[quote="dublino"]Tonalist plodded? What was the time of his mile, yes a mile. At least 2f short of a trip he requires.[/quote]

I believe I said he plodded along for HALF the race and then suddenly woke up and ran them down. I didn't say anything about his time. I thought he ran a good race, being off 6 months.

Btw, he normally doesn't come from way out of it. He's usually sitting in 3rd. So yesterday was not what he normally does. Clement himself said he would break slow and need some motivation to get running in the first half.


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