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PostPosted: Thu May 14, 2015 2:40 pm 
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dublino wrote:
TJ :) :D :lol:

Geo the exotics as you yanks call them don't float my boat.
I mainly lay horses to lose on Betfair or back fixed odd's win and e/w with traditional bookmakers.

Oh if I were to do a bet right now I'd do a 3-5-8 combo tricast, I can see trouble for the baffert horses on the inside.


Maybe if I had the bet to lose option I'd just take my elimination list and work with that. (And TJ, Divining Rod is a danger, IMO, he's not on my elimination list).

BTW, Dublino, I'm not a Yank, as I was born and brought up in Scotland. Just saying....


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PostPosted: Thu May 14, 2015 3:41 pm 
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geowarrior wrote:
dublino wrote:
TJ :) :D :lol:

Geo the exotics as you yanks call them don't float my boat.
I mainly lay horses to lose on Betfair or back fixed odd's win and e/w with traditional bookmakers.

Oh if I were to do a bet right now I'd do a 3-5-8 combo tricast, I can see trouble for the baffert horses on the inside.


Maybe if I had the bet to lose option I'd just take my elimination list and work with that. (And TJ, Divining Rod is a danger, IMO, he's not on my elimination list).

BTW, Dublino, I'm not a Yank, as I was born and brought up in Scotland. Just saying....

Hi Geo,
Yes, I agree Divining Rod could run well....they owe Lael one of these anyway:>) Just seemed to be a tad below this group....but he has been handled perfectly by his connections bringing him into this race. Once again, just a great group of 3YO's. If I wasn't fishing with Lukas, I'd have him in the mix. GUID Luck Mukker!!??? TJ


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PostPosted: Thu May 14, 2015 4:10 pm 
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I am going to be completely unoriginal here and pick the top 3 from the Derby. In what order, that is the question.

Firing Line
Dortmund
American Pharoah


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PostPosted: Thu May 14, 2015 4:20 pm 
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Cree wrote:
I am going to be completely unoriginal here and pick the top 3 from the Derby. In what order, that is the question.

Firing Line
Dortmund
American Pharoah

:D :) More like logical. TJ


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PostPosted: Thu May 14, 2015 5:50 pm 
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As usual when you think you're satisfied with your handicapping and make up your mind long before race day....up pops a new variable. Just as in the Derby, everything came up smelling like Roses for AP going from the worst post available (a post position that never won a KY Derby) to one of the best....then the scratch of stablemate El Kabeir wasn't in vain and I'm of the mind it was a coup, but what do I know....I'm just a paranoid NY'er at heart:>) The forecast is for a 40% chance of rain all day Saturday and guess who ran a hole in the wind over an off track....yep, AP. TJ


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PostPosted: Thu May 14, 2015 7:43 pm 
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Can I change my picks!?!

AP
Firing Line
Dortmund

The same 1-2-3, I bet that hasn't happened.


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PostPosted: Fri May 15, 2015 4:12 am 
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geowarrior wrote:

BTW, Dublino, I'm not a Yank, as I was born and brought up in Scotland. Just saying....


Christ they must be free bets your using never known u Scots to spend money... :wink:

Yeah Betfair is cool lay 1 horse and have the field running for you and all winnings here are tax free.

Never understood how or why you tax Betting and lottery winnings and not let the loses be tax deductible.

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PostPosted: Fri May 15, 2015 7:08 am 
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Weather report's are about as accurate as my handicapping...So don't start making any adjustments till noon time Preakness day:>) TJ


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PostPosted: Fri May 15, 2015 11:35 am 
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Shot in the dark (and yes Dublino, I occasionally bet real money :shock: )

Dortmund
Divining Rod
American Pharoah


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PostPosted: Fri May 15, 2015 12:43 pm 
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geowarrior wrote:
Shot in the dark (and yes Dublino, I occasionally bet real money :shock: )

Dortmund
Divining Rod
American Pharoah


Greenbacks or haggis dollars? :lol: :lol: :lol:

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PostPosted: Fri May 15, 2015 12:49 pm 
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I don't know... it seems that there are always some pretty good also rans in the massive free for all that the KY Derby is; a lot of Derby's are not won by the BEST horse, they are won by the luckiest with the best trip. Shrink that down to 8 pretty high quality horses and you have a chance to have a Triple Crown spoiler. AP's Derby was not THAT impressive - neither the time nor the Beyers. I think Firing Line just got a bit tired at the end of the Derby and could be a spoiler here. I look for him to hook Divining Rod into a chance of a bigger exotic payoff.

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PostPosted: Fri May 15, 2015 3:50 pm 
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madelyn wrote:
I don't know... it seems that there are always some pretty good also rans in the massive free for all that the KY Derby is; a lot of Derby's are not won by the BEST horse, they are won by the luckiest with the best trip. Shrink that down to 8 pretty high quality horses and you have a chance to have a Triple Crown spoiler. AP's Derby was not THAT impressive - neither the time nor the Beyers. I think Firing Line just got a bit tired at the end of the Derby and could be a spoiler here. I look for him to hook Divining Rod into a chance of a bigger exotic payoff.

Hi Madelyn,
He got out at the finish, but according to Stevens it was because he wouldn't switch leads....if he switched he probably would have won the Derby. An interesting tidbit concerning changing leads...In one of the greatest battles between two great racehorses that I ever saw was Affirmed and Alydar. Alydar never switched leads in all three of those TC races, he stayed on his left lead the entire trip. TJ


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PostPosted: Fri May 15, 2015 3:53 pm 
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Here's the updated Preakness Odd. TJ

1 American Pharoah 3-5

2 Dortmund 8-1

3 Mr. Z 13-1

4 Danzig Moon 15-1

5 Tale of Verve 25-1

6 Bodhisattva 20-1

7 Divining Rod 18-1

8 Firing Line 5-2


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PostPosted: Fri May 15, 2015 9:30 pm 
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I think both AP and Dortmund have enough tactical speed that their inside post positions won't prove much of a disadvantage and I look for the winner coming out of either of those 2 posts for only the 2nd time in the last 26 years.


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PostPosted: Fri May 15, 2015 11:39 pm 
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Crazy Zayat selling the 4th fav and allowing him to enter, madness sheer madness.

The track looked fair for the black eyed Susan will we have a black eyed Lukas if he wins, Zayat will probably take a swing at him. :lol:

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