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PostPosted: Sat May 16, 2015 6:05 am 
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I am really getting an attitude about the slow time posted in the Derby and using that final time to form an opinion that the race was nothing special for AP. His final time was half a second faster than California Chrome's time last year and this was after running wide the whole trip. The track condition could be the reason for the somewhat slow pace, but they all had to run on the same surface, and even with relatively clean trips only a handful of runners improved their position from the mile marker to the finish. I will go on record here and say that barring any major mishap he will win the Preakness. Because it will be hard to make any money betting him to win I am going to play a $.50 pick 4 using races 10-13. The ticket will be 1,7,9 with 2,5,8, with 4,7,13 with 1 a total of 27 at a cost of $13.50, it is early so there may be some that scratch out so the final ticket may not cost as much.

Good luck to all and may they all have a safe trip.

DDT


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PostPosted: Sat May 16, 2015 7:07 am 
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jagger wrote:
I think both AP and Dortmund have enough tactical speed that their inside post positions won't prove much of a disadvantage and I look for the winner coming out of either of those 2 posts for only the 2nd time in the last 26 years.

Hi jagger.
Yes, it's been a long time since the 1 or 2 got the money. But overall the 1 post won 9 and the 2 post won 11 Preakness's. So it isn't impossible, I will be watching all the races from MD. today and see if we have a bias forming? TJ


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PostPosted: Sat May 16, 2015 7:09 am 
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DDT wrote:
I am really getting an attitude about the slow time posted in the Derby and using that final time to form an opinion that the race was nothing special for AP. His final time was half a second faster than California Chrome's time last year and this was after running wide the whole trip. The track condition could be the reason for the somewhat slow pace, but they all had to run on the same surface, and even with relatively clean trips only a handful of runners improved their position from the mile marker to the finish. I will go on record here and say that barring any major mishap he will win the Preakness. Because it will be hard to make any money betting him to win I am going to play a $.50 pick 4 using races 10-13. The ticket will be 1,7,9 with 2,5,8, with 4,7,13 with 1 a total of 27 at a cost of $13.50, it is early so there may be some that scratch out so the final ticket may not cost as much.

Good luck to all and may they all have a safe trip.

DDT

Hi DDT,
Good luck to you as well. Looks like the threat of rain is being played down, yet it is still a 40% chance. Though an off track won't bother you at all:>) TJ


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PostPosted: Sat May 16, 2015 8:59 am 
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Hmm....Todays 2nd was the first race run over the dirt at Pimlico today....the two front runners ran around the track one-two in front. Exacta was over 300 bucks. Second horse paid $25 in the middle, favorite couldn't get close finishing 3rd at 6/5. We won't see another two turn dirt race till the 7th race.
Amazing odds on Motion just now in the 3rd race....looked like a wire to wire winner on the turf and he went and proved it. Motions My Team (27.20) just gave me free Preakness bets:>)
Unfortunately a terrible spill at the head of the lane, Svindahl went down hard, but he's said to be OK. TJ


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PostPosted: Sat May 16, 2015 9:18 am 
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Hope G Stevens is taking note, I am sure he is. Go to the lead Gary and ride a masterclass.

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PostPosted: Sat May 16, 2015 10:42 am 
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dublino wrote:
Hope G Stevens is taking note, I am sure he is. Go to the lead Gary and ride a masterclass.

Coming up shortly is the Sir Barton Stake on the dirt....this will be very telling concerning a speed bias as they are solid 3YO's. Baffert has a speed horse on the rail....interesting to see how they play it. If there is a bias he will go with Garcia? TJ


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PostPosted: Sat May 16, 2015 10:58 am 
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TJ wrote:
dublino wrote:
Hope G Stevens is taking note, I am sure he is. Go to the lead Gary and ride a masterclass.

Coming up shortly is the Sir Barton Stake on the dirt....this will be very telling concerning a speed bias as they are solid 3YO's. Baffert has a speed horse on the rail....interesting to see how they play it. If there is a bias he will go with Garcia? TJ

Hi Dub,
This pretty much sealed the deal....Garcia and Fame and Power went right to the lead and no one could catch him. The 2nd horse stayed on close by throughout....favored Donworth tried hard to get the place from far off the pace to no avail. Speed and the rail look very good today....they must have scraped the inside to help the big horses on the rail in the Preakness. TJ


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PostPosted: Sat May 16, 2015 11:06 am 
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TJ wrote:
TJ wrote:
....they must have scraped the inside to help the big horses on the rail in the Preakness. TJ


The powers that be might shorten the Belmont by 2f so Baffert can win a triple crown, this is just disgusting track setup why aren't any of the media/commentators saying anything about this?

Its just not fair to people who have bred proper classic horses, they are turning these into 3f quarter horse races, sad for American racing and breeding.

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PostPosted: Sat May 16, 2015 11:23 am 
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dublino wrote:
TJ wrote:
TJ wrote:
....they must have scraped the inside to help the big horses on the rail in the Preakness. TJ


The powers that be might shorten the Belmont by 2f so Baffert can win a triple crown, this is just disgusting track setup why aren't any of the media/commentators saying anything about this?

Its just not fair to people who have bred proper classic horses, they are turning these into 3f quarter horse races, sad for American racing and breeding.

Hi Dub,
This is just my assumption....it's possible it's a whole other story going the Preakness distance....but the fact Garcia sent this horse the way he did, he had to be instructed to do it...so the rail and speed is good. I think Stevens will take a wait and see attitude out of the gate....he's got a clock in his head as does Garcia who was flawless leading the Sir Barton field gate to wire. The track seems to be speed favoring....but nearby stalkers with real ability will have no trouble getting up at the Preakness distance....both of the two turn races we saw so far, were at a mile and a sixteenth. TJ


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PostPosted: Sat May 16, 2015 12:43 pm 
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Interesting move by Baffert in the 10th race at Pimlico. Victor Espinoza, who hasn't come close in two tries here, picks up Martin Garcia's 2-1 shot in the race. Problem is it's a dirt sprint stake....shouldn't give Victor a fair feel for the track. Never a good sign when the rider of the big horse in the Preakness doesn't at least win one or come close before the big one. TJ


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PostPosted: Sat May 16, 2015 1:19 pm 
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Poor ride by Espinoza on 9/5 Gimme da Lute, he never got him out of the gate finishing a well beaten 3rd. He's got one more ride in the 12th race....but that's over the turf course, hopefully he'll get himself motivated in that one. TJ


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PostPosted: Sat May 16, 2015 2:06 pm 
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Weather update...70% chance of heavy rain and thunder storms by 6PM. TJ


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PostPosted: Sat May 16, 2015 2:14 pm 
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Thanks for that Brick Tamland.....

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PostPosted: Sat May 16, 2015 2:26 pm 
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dublino wrote:
Thanks for that Brick Tamland.....

LOL


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PostPosted: Sat May 16, 2015 3:27 pm 
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At least I got the weather right:>)
American Pharoah and VE went on with it and that was what had to be done in victory. Glad to see Victor make that move.
Tale of Verve up for the place at a big price...
Divining Rod a game 3rd...
Dortmund 4th...

I think something happened to Firing Line coming out of the gate....if not he must have hated the going?? TJ


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