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PostPosted: Sun May 17, 2015 8:46 am 
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It's a bit early to determine AP's status, though Baffert said barring anything unforeseen, he will be heading to The Belmont Stakes the Wednesday before race-day. Baffert also mentioned Dortmund might be in need of a rest. Will update as changes are made.
One of the less encouraging moves by NYRA is imposing a 90,000 cap on the Belmont Park crowd for Belmont Stakes day. It should be a real zoo and a traffic nightmare for the town of Elmont, while going down Hempstead Turnpike trying to enter Belmont Park....where will all the overflow go and what a horror it will be when they try to turn walk-ins and cars away:>) TJ

Probables:

American Pharoah
Mubtaahij
Frosted
Materiality
Madefromlucky
Truth or Else
Frammento
Keen Ice
Tale of Verve
Carpe Diem


Last edited by TJ on Thu May 28, 2015 5:23 am, edited 6 times in total.

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PostPosted: Sun May 17, 2015 12:02 pm 
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One word Frosted.

Who would run AP at 12f? Some muscle or soft tissue injury is coming...

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PostPosted: Sun May 17, 2015 12:12 pm 
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dublino wrote:
One word Frosted.

Who would run AP at 12f? Some muscle or soft tissue injury is coming...

Hi Dub,
Do you know something I don't know about his physical condition? TJ


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PostPosted: Sun May 17, 2015 1:58 pm 
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Tale of Verve to Belmont.
Danzig Moon returning here, I guess to go for the Queens Plate. He might have his hands full with Shaman Ghost.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... -to-canada


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PostPosted: Sun May 17, 2015 2:03 pm 
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TJ wrote:
dublino wrote:
One word Frosted.

Who would run AP at 12f? Some muscle or soft tissue injury is coming...

Hi Dub,
Do you know something I don't know about his physical condition? TJ


There is no way the Belmont track can be set up for that mile horse to get the 12f.

Ducking out can only preserve the horses value as a stallion, they run him at 12f they ruin him IMHO.

The Derby and Preakness were handed to him not going to happen in the Belmont.

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PostPosted: Sun May 17, 2015 4:39 pm 
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Cree wrote:
Tale of Verve to Belmont.
Danzig Moon returning here, I guess to go for the Queens Plate. He might have his hands full with Shaman Ghost.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... -to-canada

Hi Cree,
Dallas is making a good move coming to Belmont Park early, though I don't like a deep closers chances in the Belmont Stakes. Baffert on the other hand, not so good...waiting till Wednesday before the Belmont to show up, hopefully he will come to NY sooner? Horses need to see what that big oval is all about.
I think the probables I have listed will make the Belmont unless they have a physical issue pop up between now and then. All the possibles are unlikely, though I wouldn't put it past Lukas to run back. I guess Casse figures his best Belmont chance is Conquest Curlinate (as we discussed), so he's sending Danzig Moon back to Canada to take some of their money.
People that haven't encountered the type of weather they had at Pimlico during a horse race, aren't aware of the many problems created. As Casse mentioned how much mud his horse swallowed....they go on with coughing fits if you don't help them along and flush water down their throat and flush their airway and sinus. Honey, glycerin or cough syrup helps too. Those heavy tracks pull the shoes right off a horses feet, not to mention some react terribly to the heavy rain....like Firing Line who Stevens said literally sulked before they entered the gate. Glad to read Firing Line is doing OK today....really thought he'd be sore after the way he broke splay-legged. Another reason for the slow time is the tack and jocks pick up at least 5-10 pounds extra weight which slows them considerably. TJ


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PostPosted: Sun May 17, 2015 5:25 pm 
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dublino wrote:
TJ wrote:
dublino wrote:
One word Frosted.

Who would run AP at 12f? Some muscle or soft tissue injury is coming...

Hi Dub,
Do you know something I don't know about his physical condition? TJ


There is no way the Belmont track can be set up for that mile horse to get the 12f.

Ducking out can only preserve the horses value as a stallion, they run him at 12f they ruin him IMHO.

The Derby and Preakness were handed to him not going to happen in the Belmont.

Hi Dub,
The Belmont Stakes is notorious for front runners having an edge. Speed is far more an asset then deep closers that look like a mile and a half will be up their alley. Frosted certainly has the right running style for the Belmont Stakes....you need speed and the ability to sustain 12 and change eights throughout the entire 12 furlongs. If you get away with a 48-49 first half, a speed horse simply has to run a good mile thereafter.
There is no way AP won't run in the Belmont unless he didn't come out of the Preakness as he should, but Baffert all ready said he came out of the Preakness better then he did the Derby. I've been waiting to see what Mubtaahij has been up to and he worked 5/8ths over the inner turf course at Belmont Park this morning. He got a bullet work while going in company with his older stable mate Umgiyo who posted the 2nd best time of the day. deKock prefers training over the turf, so this had to be a very encouraging move. This is a really great group of 3YO's and the Belmont will be one of the best races we will see all year. TJ


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PostPosted: Mon May 18, 2015 5:04 am 
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The Belmont is always my favourite of the three races.
I love seeing longshots win it, especially with a TC on the line. I don't know, I'm a glutton for punishment.
The 4 I am looking at to upset (if they go) are Materiality, Conquest Curlinate, Mubtaahij, and Frammento.


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PostPosted: Mon May 18, 2015 6:40 am 
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Cree wrote:
The Belmont is always my favourite of the three races.
I love seeing longshots win it, especially with a TC on the line. I don't know, I'm a glutton for punishment.
The 4 I am looking at to upset (if they go) are Materiality, Conquest Curlinate, Mubtaahij, and Frammento.

Hi Cree,
Yes, the Belmont is mine too as long as there is a TC on the line. When there isn't, many times it's just like any other race. I remember when Nafzger got so upset Street Sense lost the Preakness he didn't go on to the Belmont Stakes.
Frammento is yet to truly commit....we'll here more from Zito about that. The coverage by these sports writers is poor at best. Here we have an international horse having trouble adapting to the American way as we have California Chrome in a similar situation in Europe. This is a big story and one that can bring forward a great racing story. Both should be reported on at least twice a week. It would bring a new excitement to the sport, which it sorely needs ....something other then just the Kentucky Derby...then wait and see....oh ya now we have a TC possibility. They need to write about and show videos of Chrome and Mubtaahij and how they are both progressing and learning the ways of their new land. This would help rejuvenate racing as a sport because we would have people on both sides of the Atlantic being involved and looking forward to how this plays out. It's great Mubtaahij had a bullet work over the turf course yesterday....but I'd rather know if he switched leads....because there is no way he can win the Belmont Stakes over big sandy if he doesn't. This will be an opportunity lost by not featuring these two outstanding horses in their quest to win in a country and racing ways they are unfamiliar with. They want to bring racing worlds together and they are missing the boat again...TJ


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PostPosted: Mon May 18, 2015 1:33 pm 
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War Story a definite starter for Belmont Stakes. In addition today, the owners paid the supplemental nomination fee for Conquest Curlinate to enter the Belmont Stakes. TJ


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PostPosted: Mon May 18, 2015 3:21 pm 
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TJ wrote:
War Story a definite starter for Belmont Stakes. In addition today, the owners paid the supplemental nomination fee for Conquest Curlinate to enter the Belmont Stakes. TJ


They really had no choice once I committed my virtual 75k on their behalf :P


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PostPosted: Mon May 18, 2015 4:54 pm 
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LOL


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PostPosted: Tue May 19, 2015 12:35 pm 
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The last nine horses to go off at even money or less in the Belmont:
year horse odds finish
1979 Spectacular Bid 0.30 3
1981 Pleasant Colony 0.80 3
1987 Alysheba 0.80 4
1989 Sunday Silence 0.90 2
1998 Real Quiet 0.80 2
2003 Funny Cide 1.00 3
2004 Smarty Jones 0.35 2
2008 Big Brown 0.30 9
2014 California Chrome 0.90 4

Somehow, "Stuff" happens!

(At least, three of them did run in the Exacta ...)


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PostPosted: Tue May 19, 2015 1:01 pm 
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Aug27 wrote:
The last nine horses to go off at even money or less in the Belmont:
year horse odds finish
1979 Spectacular Bid 0.30 3
1981 Pleasant Colony 0.80 3
1987 Alysheba 0.80 4
1989 Sunday Silence 0.90 2
1998 Real Quiet 0.80 2
2003 Funny Cide 1.00 3
2004 Smarty Jones 0.35 2
2008 Big Brown 0.30 9
2014 California Chrome 0.90 4

Somehow, "Stuff" happens!

(At least, three of them did run in the Exacta ...)

Hi Aug 27,
Or should I just call you Travers:>) Thanks for those facts...tough race for sure and very humbling to say the least. Still looking forward to see the outcome. This should be a real good race. It's facts like this that affords us a large Belmont Stakes field....so hard to win that race, especially after running two tough races on short notice prior to the Belmont Stakes. TJ


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PostPosted: Wed May 20, 2015 7:49 am 
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Mike Smith will ride Frammento for Nick Zito, who spoiled two TC bids for Big Brown and Smarty Jones. TJ


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