Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

[TJ]

American Pharoah returned to the track today (Thursday 5/21) for an easy jog, once around the CD oval the wrong way. Only 5 days after his Preakness romp. That pretty well sums up the toll the Derby and Preakness wins took on AP's physical condition. Assistant trainer Barnes announced, AP will hit the track everyday at 8:30 AM, right after the the morning harrow. They may try to get him to Belmont on the Tuesday (June 2nd) before the Belmont stakes, instead of Wednesday as originally planned? TJ

[geowarrior]

Any thoughts on how he might get over the Belmont surface? He has run on quite a few different tracks already.

[TJ]

Any thoughts on how he might get over the Belmont surface? He has run on quite a few different tracks already.

Hi Geo,
I think he'll love the surface....truth is most horses do, it's a safe, well maintained, monstrous racetrack. The speedier runners appreciate it more as the kickback at Big Sandy could be discouraging, so that factor is also in AP's favor. I hearken back to California Chrome, when he broke in front, but was taken back only to find himself behind a wall of horses with the stinging kickback tempering CC's journey. Inexperience over that big track finds errors being made by riders who aren't regulars at Belmont Park. The jockey colony at Belmont Park is one of the toughest there is and those boys and girls won't make it easy for a TC contender to get the job done without a fight. It is one of the single most factors in winning the TC. Every triple crown winner won the Belmont Stakes on the front end, the safest place to be against this hard riding jockey colony.
When you are going for the TC, you have a target on your back....in some cases riders purposely try to get a potential TC winner beaten. One of particular note was Jerry Bailey...as Johnny Velazquez makes mention of in the article I will post below (which will answer all your questions about Belmont Park's surface). If you were anywhere near Bailey the day after that Preakness, you could hear him proud of the fact he caused Smarty Jones to get beat. The arrogant Bailey said he was merely doing his job, but the truth was he called the owners of Smarty Jones asking if they would let him ride the horse in the Belmont, they refused so he went about making them sorry for refusing him. It's important a rider is familiar with this track, as mixing up the poles over this large surface is done by regulars, let alone someone who hasn't been riding here regularly. The fact Espinoza might have realized the error of his ways with Chrome, could assure a more confident ride this time around with AP. Yet even doing it TC style and taking it to the field wire to wire, won't assure a win. We have some legitimate, fresh opponents in this Belmont Stakes field so expect to see another great horse race. TJ
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/06/sport ... .html?_r=0

[dublino]

Its surely too deep a surface for AP I just hope on the day for a fair track and not a quarter horse 3f race like the last two classics were, I hope the Belmont won't be handed to AP like the Derby and Preakness were.

[TJ]

Its surely too deep a surface for AP I just hope on the day for a fair track and not a quarter horse 3f race like the last two classics were, I hope the Belmont won't be handed to AP like the Derby and Preakness were.

Hi Dub,
The Belmont strip is certainly not a deep track by any means. It is one of the fastest racetracks in America with a strong and springy base and cushion. Belmont track records are faster than Santa Anita, Gulfstream Park and Saratoga (all three noted to be very fast surfaces).
AP isn't being given a thing with the competition he faces in this field and he could get beat....but if he doesn't, he's everything they've billed him to be and more. It's not like I've been a real fan of this horse....but the more you see him overcome, the more you have to believe what Baffert has been saying about this horse all along. A friend of mine, who is a noted trainer, was at The Preakness and watched him galloping in the mornings. He said it's like AP floats over the track with very little effort or energy expelled.....it's his way of going that carries him further then his breeding may suggest.
Many of the Triple Crown winner's won the Belmont Stakes on or near the lead...Whirlaway a deep closer, was even sent to the lead after 3/8ths of a mile and won easily. Another TC tidbit is that 6 of the last 7 TC winners were all 2YO champions (Assault lost 2YO honors to Double Jay) and won the Belmont Stakes on or near the lead....AP certainly fits the profile and he's only the 2nd one that has since Affirmed. Spectacular Bid (1979) was the last one who fit the profile and some may remember the safety pin excuse for his Belmont Stakes loss:>) TJ

[Aug27]

Only two wire-to-wire winners since Affirmed:
http://s236.photobucket.com/user/StarryBrass/media/Belmont%20points%20of%20call_zpsmllqqoct.png.html?sort=6&o=0

[TJ]

Only two wire-to-wire winners since Affirmed:
http://s236.photobucket.com/user/StarryBrass/media/Belmont%20points%20of%20call_zpsmllqqoct.png.html?sort=6&o=0

Aug,
I was talking about TC winners being on or near the lead, most TC winners went wire to wire though. As well as also being 2YO champions since these awards began. Even looking at your chart, 16 since Affirmed won on or near the lead, though only two from actual gate to wire. Proving speed is what you need. Nice chart by the way...TJ

[Aug27]

Yes, I understand that is what you were saying. 2YO champs winning the Derby and Preakness, then wiring the Belmont. I must conclude they were simply superior animals, or faced a weak crop of competition, or most likely a combination of both.
I surely hope we see some legitimate pace in this year's Belmont. AP has been great, but I personally don't think he has true 12f breeding ...
Frosted, on the other hand, ought to relish the extra ground, IMO.

[TJ]

Hi Aug,
There are plenty speedy horses in the Belmont Stakes this year. Don't forget Materiality, a front runner who hesitated leaving the starting gate in the Derby....a product of the curse of Apollo and lack of experience, kind of one in the same:>). Mubtaahij is being trained to show more speed, his trainer knows he has to be closer to the pace this time around after they opted to take him back in the Derby. Carpe Diem could go if he elects to. Frosted as well....while War Story's owner said with no uncertainty, he will instruct Colby Hernandez to put War Story on the lead in the Belmont Stakes. Madefromlucky also can take the lead if asked. Rider and trainer intent and pace is the big unknown, because any horse in the Belmont field is capable of taking the lead when you consider the fractions for the first 1/2 will be between 47+ and 48+ seconds. Faster then that is suicide and would trigger a good rider to take off a fast pace....so riders play an important role in the way the pace develops especially going this mile and a half distance. A horse that has the best speed and is capable of rating, will become a stalker if an improbable horse is sent to the lead. To name some recent speed types who laid off the lead because of smart riders....Last year Tonalist and Commissioner off Samraat and General A Rod, 2013 Palace Malice and Oxbow off Frac Daddy, 2011 Ruler on Ice off Shakleford....There are three stone cold closer's in the Belmont, Keen Ice, Frammento, Tale of Verve and a possible mid pack closer Conquest Curlinate, who could get a jump on the other closers, if the pace gets hot and heavy. If we only knew who will go and who will sit....then again, if you are a true Champion deserving of the TC, you simply go and take on all challengers along the way, as we've seen done in the last three American Triple Crown winners. TJ

[TJ]

With two weeks and a day untill the Belmont Stakes I think it's a good time to start tracking works. With a solid group of fresh shooters entering the Belmont some eye popping moves should be seen. Of course AP is looking to gallop into the Belmont with a possible breeze at CD before shipping north....of note this morning at CD, AP had his first mile gallop since the Preakness. I posted a couple serious moves within a three day period by Mubtaahij all ready. We have at least three scheduled to work this morning. TJ

Friday 5/22:
Carpe Diem (JV) and Madefromlucky (exercise rider Patty Krotenko) worked extremely well in company at Belmont Park going 5/8ths in 59.19. They galloped out 3/4's in 1:11.79, while continuing out 7/8'ths in 1:25.81 while pulling up the mile in 1:41.16. This move was even more impressive when 30 minutes later, JV worked last years Belmont Stakes winner, Tonalist 5/8ths in 1:00, while galloping out 3/4's in 1:13.25. Pletcher commented Madefromlucky never worked this good for him....Pletch always said this horse want a mile and a half?
Frosted worked 5/8ths in company with Godolphin Mile winner Tamarkuz (pointing to the Met Mile), and was under a bit of pressure to stick with that one who did hold him safe by a slim margin. Frosted went 5/8ths in 1:01.45 and galloped out 3/4's in 1:13.64.
Materiality (JV in the irons) and Stanford worked in unison going 5/8ths in 1:00.04. They galloped out 3/4's in 1:12.04 continued on 7/8ths in 1:25.74 before pulling up the mile in 1:40.76....Materiality getting the better of Stanford in the gallop out. Very impressive move...
Overall some impressive moves....serious group of fresh horses lining up to challenge AP!.......TJ

[Cree]

Conquest Curlinate worked 59.80 at Churchill this morning. 4th of 20. Seemed fast to me until I saw that Noble Bird and Dynamic Sky worked 1st and 3rd of 20 at the same distance.

[TJ]

Conquest Curlinate worked 59.80 at Churchill this morning. 4th of 20. Seemed fast to me until I saw that Noble Bird and Dynamic Sky worked 1st and 3rd of 20 at the same distance.

Hi Cree,
This race just keeps getting better and better....What a move from Conquest Curlinate. He needs a shot of speed to stay a bit closer in the Belmont Stakes and that work was just what the Dr. ordered. If a battle ensues on the front end....CC, who should get first run of the closer types in the Belmont Stakes, might be there to pick up the pieces. TJ

[geowarrior]

Conquest Curlinate worked 59.80 at Churchill this morning. 4th of 20. Seemed fast to me until I saw that Noble Bird and Dynamic Sky worked 1st and 3rd of 20 at the same distance.

Hi Cree,
This race just keeps getting better and better....What a move from Conquest Curlinate. He needs a shot of speed to stay a bit closer in the Belmont Stakes and that work was just what the Dr. ordered. If a battle ensues on the front end....CC, who should get first run of the closer types in the Belmont Stakes, might be there to pick up the pieces. TJ

Yes, I thought that was a fast work for him. Looks like my virtual 75k could be a good investment. I really like this horse to do something in this race.

[Cree]

I really like Materiality and Conquest Curlinate at this point, *if* American Pharoah doesn't win it.

[TJ]

No sense wasting time....here are the past performances for the probable starters in this years Belmont Stakes, compliments of Brisnet. TJ
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/B ... akes15.pdf