Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

[TJ]

Saturday 5/23

Frammento worked a 1/2 today (Saturday 5/23) over the Oklahoma training track in Saratoga Spings. He went along in twelves and change while completing the 1/2 in 49.30 and galloped out 5/8ths in 1:04.
American Pharoah continues with basic gallops as he fills his tank for a possible breeze at CD late next week, he galloped about 1 3/16ths of a mile today. Expect more of the same, with an increase in distance along the way. It's the ho-hum phase of training that is really what it's all about...watching his every move for hints or signs he wants more or less. Noting if he's not quite 100% or if he's going better then you could have dreamed. This is what it's all about, as the excitement builds as they return AP to fighting condition after the Preakness. This routine will prompt them to decide to breeze or not to breeze prior to the Belmont Stakes. But from all reports so far from asst. trainer Jimmy Barnes and exercise rider Jorge Alvarez, he is doing better then expected and the Preakness took little out of him. TJ

[TJ]

I really like Materiality and Conquest Curlinate at this point, *if* American Pharoah doesn't win it.

Hi Cree,
This looks like another race with many solid contenders. Don't remember a horse like America Pharoah with his outstanding past performances that got less respect. All because of his breeding being slanted to sprints from his momma. It had me fooled for sure. But there comes a point he has to get credit for his accomplishments. I think much of it has to do with the nice group of 3YO's that showed up for the 3 TC races. The form looked so good on so many....yet Pharoah spanked them all so far. Even with all he's done there are many in the Belmont Stakes that look like they can beat him....add his breeding stigma he's been carry around with him and we will most likely once again try to beat him. He's the Rodney Dangerfield of TC contenders:>) Though we both look at Conquest as a real threat and Materiality IMHO could very well have beaten him, if he broke with his field in the Derby. Mubtaahij is still a contender in my book and has according to Roman's dosage, a perfect blend of speed and stamina which is DI: 1.00 and CD 0.00. I wish that was all she wrote....but you can make a case for quite a few more that are in there. Look at the serious mug on this guy in his work the other morning....Materiality (on the outside with JV trying to get back the mount after turning him down in the Derby...I thought JV knew what he was sitting on, but he made bad choices two years in a row), Materiality is in the zone!! https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CFnhBSZUgAIH0cB.jpg . I always thought he was something special (check my post about him under his name), I liked the way he moved and the race he ran when going from sprints right into a 1 1/8th...no doubt he wasn't 100%....but ran back going another 1 1/8th in the Florida Derby and won again. Those two races may very well have been his undoing going into the Derby....they had to take something out of him and hesitating out of the gate was not this horses way of doing things. That I believe was a combination of reaching his limit and his overall inexperience....throw in the curse of Apollo which is still going strong and he was severely handicapped to win the Derby. With the time off he's had, his natural front running style and the way he's training, I agree he will be a serious factor in the Belmont Stakes. TJ

[TJ]

Sunday 5/24:
American Pharoah, once again more of the same, boring but all so important....AP jogged back to the 7/8ths pole and galloping an enthusiastic mile and a quarter....pulling up around the 5/8ths pole.
Mubtaahij once again worked in company with the older Umgiyo, going 5/8ths in 1:01.83 and pulling up 3/4's in 1:18.40. Obviously not a great gallop out, but when you consider his 3rd breeze in a week....it was a proper move. The good news is he switched leads on Que!! TJ

[TJ]

Mon. (5/25)
American Pharoah galloped a 1 3/16ths miles today over a sloppy track at CD. Rumors are he may breeze tomorrow morning...this means he must be doing very well as he was expected to breeze later in the week?
Materiality and Madefromlucky galloped 1 5/8ths miles at Belmont today....no Carpe Diem today, possibly indicating he will not make the Belmont Stakes??
Tale of Verve followed suit, galloping 1 5/8ths miles at Belmont Park. TJ

[Cree]

As much as I like Carpe Diem, I think the other 2 are more Belmont-like horses.
Wasn't it you that said he has some physical/soundess issues?

[TJ]

As much as I like Carpe Diem, I think the other 2 are more Belmont-like horses.
Wasn't it you that said he has some physical/soundess issues?

Hi Cree,
No, I was talking about Stanford, who I thought wasn't right, because he missed works even though the owners said he would run in the Preakness......Yes looks like Pletcher has withdrawn all from consideration. The only one left to announce is Grand Bili. Early on the owners announced Stanford would run, but he still hasn't had a work since May 2nd. There's always a surprise or two come entry day tomorrow, we will see:>) Materiality, Carpe Diem and Madefromlucky are all pointing for the Belmont Stakes. Of note is Bolo...he will point for the Belmont Derby, an invitational mile and a quarter GR I stake on the turf July 4th. TJ

Though Carpe Diem didn't go to the track today and the other two Materiality and Madefromlucky did. Carpe Diem worked faster then those two....so he might have something brewing?? TJ

[TJ]

Tuesday (5/26)
Belmont:
Materiality and Carpe Diem came out as the first set of the Pletcher trainee's, but did not go in company. Materiality backed up to the head of the lane, then galloped 1 3/4 miles.
Carpe Diem jogged a mile the wrong way while being accompanied by the stable pony, then turned and galloped a mile??
Tale Of Verve galloped a mile and a half picking it up a bit through the lane. He's scheduled to breeze at the end of the week.
Mubtaahij being trained in the old style, after work's on 5/10,17,20,24 and today 5/26, he had a little blowout at the end of his gallop...going an easy 3/8ths in 42 and galloped out a 1/2 in 56. He is a handful and loving the short intervals between works.
Madefromlucky also galloped today by himself, and easy 1 3/4 miles.
Frosted also out for a 1 1/2 mile gallop.
CD:
War Story breezed a 1/2 this morning at CD in 1:01.40, he galloped out 3/4's in 1:14. Doesn't look like a horse that is capable of taking the lead in the Belmont Stakes, as his owner predicted?
American Pharoah worked a 1/2 mile (48 flat) with Martin Garcia aboard, he went along (basically in twelves to the eighth) in 24, 35.80, 48 then galloped out 5/8ths in 1:00.40 and pulled up 3/4's in 1:13.20. Somewhat amazing piece of work, considering it's only 10 days after winning the Preakness and 24 days after winning the Derby. TJ

[TJ]

War Story's connections, most likely after seeing AP gallop out 5/8ths faster then he worked 5/8ths this morning at CD....his owner came to their senses and withdrew him from consideration for the Belmont Stakes.
Here are the most probable starters for this years Belmont Stakes....and a couple of them may not get to the gate unless they get in the zone. TJ

American Pharoah....Bob Baffert, Victor Espinoza

Carpe Diem.............Todd Pletcher, undecided

Conquest Curlinate...Mark Casse, Shaun Bridgmohan

Frammento..............Nick Zito, Mike Smith

Frosted....................Kiaran McLaughlin, Joel Rosario

Keen Ice..................Dale Romans, Kent Desormeaux

Madefromlucky.........Todd Pletcher, undecided

Materiality................Todd Pletcher, undecided

Mubtaahij.................Michael de Kock, Irad Ortiz Jr.

Tale of Verve............Dallas Stewart, Gary Stevens

[Patuxet]

TJ wrote: "Don't remember a horse like American Pharoah with his outstanding past performances that got less respect."

TJ: Because I'm older than you -- and likely anyone else around here -- I had to reach all the way back to 1961 and Carry Back to recall a comparable Rodney Dangerfield example. Despite victories in the Derby and Preakness -- plus being one of the best 2YO's (21 starts & stakes wins: Remsen, Cowdin & NJ Futurity) and early 3YO winner of the Flamingo, Everglades and FL Derby -- Carry Back was publicly distained and dismissed on account of his breeding. His sire was Saggy, his dam Joppy. I remember seeing him referred to as "by nothing out of nothing". Unfortunately in the Belmont he came seventh out of nine, but was voted CH. 3YO and went on at 4 to be very competitive in a strong handicap division. He even went overseas to take a crack at the Arc, one of the very few US horses to dare that in my lifetime.

[TJ]

TJ wrote: "Don't remember a horse like American Pharoah with his outstanding past performances that got less respect."

TJ: Because I'm older than you -- and likely anyone else around here -- I had to reach all the way back to 1961 and Carry Back to recall a comparable Rodney Dangerfield example. Despite victories in the Derby and Preakness -- plus being one of the best 2YO's (21 starts & stakes wins: Remsen, Cowdin & NJ Futurity) and early 3YO winner of the Flamingo, Everglades and FL Derby -- Carry Back was publicly distained and dismissed on account of his breeding. His sire was Saggy, his dam Joppy. I remember seeing him referred to as "by nothing out of nothing". Unfortunately in the Belmont he came seventh out of nine, but was voted CH. 3YO and went on at 4 to be very competitive in a strong handicap division. He even went overseas to take a crack at the Arc, one of the very few US horses to dare that in my lifetime.

Hi Patuxet,
You have to go a little further back then that:>) I actually do remember Carry Back and went to the Belmont Stakes that year....Former President Eisenhower was in the stands that day (sitting in a first row box seat) and as it turned out was the only memorable part of the day:>). Jack Price didn't care what they said about CB and proved the naysayers wrong, most of them being the upper echelon breeders:>) Carry Back bred by his trainer, was out of a mare (Joppy) who refused to come out of the gate and she was banned from racing, guess CB got his running style from her:>). I do remember he had a strong following in some circles who loved the underdog....like me, his grass roots following grew after his Derby win and he was actually favored in all 3 TC races. His style of running added to his appeal....by nobody out of nobody, you had to love those....like Fio Rito:>) Let's go back and watch his amazing run in the Derby and the Preakness. Johnny Sellers and Carry Back were made for each other, Sellers was a superior closing rider. I learned an important lesson that day while watching his Belmont Stakes Performance, when he finished a disappointing 7th at 2/5. Deep closers, who you'd expect should win the further they go, are actually at a disadvantage when the pace is moderate in front of them. TJ
Derby: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ouoSwFAE7d0
Preakness: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHUkiGn6up0
Belmont Stakes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifkNHwcNa48

[dublino]

Have you 2 gotten letters from the queen

[TJ]

Have you 2 gotten letters from the queen

Hi Dub,
I fooled around with the Queen, when she was worth fooling around with :>) TJ

[TJ]

Wednesday (5/27)
Belmont
Tale Of Verve had a warm up for a more serious breeze Friday. He galloped approximately a mile and 3/4's from the 1/8th pole...picking up the pace the final 1/2 mile going in 51.75 seconds.
Materiality and Carpe Diem went out together once again, then went on their own merry way. Materiality galloped a mile and five-eights.
Carpe Diem jogged back a mile with the pony and turned and galloped almost a mile and a half. A bit more then yesterday and like humpty dumpty, they may be putting him back together again (more mental then physical with him)?
Mubtaahij breezed again this morning, with Irad Ortiz in the irons. He backed up to the 1/2 mile pole then breezed a 1/2 mile from the 3/8ths pole in an unimpressive 52.31 while pulling up 5/8ths in a dismal 1:08.71. The good news is he switched on Que. Not knowing the intent of this move, with his Belmont rider on board, I will take it with a grain of salt:>)
Frosted galloped an easy mile and a half.
Madefromlucky followed suit, going an easy mile and a half as well.
CD
American Pharoah will walk the shedrow today after his workout yesterday. AP will most likely be out Thursday morning, typically for a jog, first day after a breeze.
Keen Ice started off visually impressive when he breezed 3/4's this morning in 1:13.60, with tiny Tammy Fox in the irons. He broke off at the 5 1/2f marker and went along in 12.40, 24.40, 36.20, 48.60, 1:00.60....galloped out 7/8ths under some urging in 1:27.80. His gallop out left something to be desired (could have been because he was going into the turn?), yet the final 1/4 mile in 27.20 doesn't bode well when going 1 1/2 miles at Belmont?

Conquest Curlinate at CD and Frammento who is training at Saratoga have yet to clock in:>) TJ

[dublino]

Have you 2 gotten letters from the queen

Hi Dub,
I fooled around with the Queen, when she was worth fooling around with :>) TJ

The Queen or A Queen, heck I won't ask and you please don't tell.

[TJ]

Have you 2 gotten letters from the queen

Hi Dub,
I fooled around with the Queen, when she was worth fooling around with :>) TJ

The Queen or A Queen, heck I won't ask and you please don't tell.

Hi Dub,
That would be "THE" Queen, thank you very much:>) TJ