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 Post subject: Belmont angles
PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2015 8:55 pm 
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Allowance Winner

Joined: Wed Aug 27, 2008 10:29 am
Posts: 326
Here's something interesting: four times in the past nine years, the Belmont winner was an entry showing only a Maiden win on his resume (Palace Malice, Summer Bird, Da' Tara, Jazil).
In comparison, there's been only one such winner of the Derby in the past 39 years (that was Giacomo).
I can't tell you how long it's been since a Maiden winner won the Preakness (I went back to 1979 and failed to find a single one.)
Clearly, based on this data, "Back Class" is not as important in the Belmont as some other handicapping factors (perhaps pedigree?), while Class appears to play a larger role in the other Triple Crown races.

Here's the basic data, again for horses with only a Maiden win to their credit entering the triple crown race being analyzed, going back to 1979:
Derby = 48 starters and 1 Winner (2.1%)
Preakness = 26 starters and 0 Winners (0.0%)
Belmont = 43 starters and 5 Winners (11.6%)

Grade 1 Winners still perform better, as should be expected:
Derby = 184 starters and 20 Winners (10.9%)
Preakness = 94 starters and 23 Winners (24.5%)
Belmont = 94 starters and 17 Winners (18.1%)

Just for sake of comparison, here's how the Grade 2 Winners looked:
Derby = 153 starters and 11 Winners (7.2%)
Preakness = 63 starters and 7 Winners (11.1%)
Belmont = 68 starters and 5 Winners (7.4%)

So, percentage-wise, Maiden Winners (11.6%) have outperformed Grade 2 Winners (7.4%) in terms of actually winning the Belmont.
This, of course, just don't "make sense", using a normal handicapping approach.

Breaking down the Maiden Winners to those who've had prior Grade 1 experience is also eye-opening: For the Belmont, 27 of the 43 runners had prior Grade 1 experience, and all 5 Winners came from that group. In contrast, 16 of the 43 had never raced in a Grade 1 before the Belmont, and none of them even hit the board ...

What's this mean for 2015? I really don't know.
But, if you fancy Tale of Verve, I wouldn't let his lack of a Graded stakes win scare you off.

If you have any similar "off-the-wall" handicapping angles you'd like to share for the Belmont, please do so :)


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 Post subject: Re: Belmont angles
PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2015 9:46 pm 
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Darley line
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Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 7:54 am
Posts: 5936
Location: FL, NY
Hi Aug,
Tnx Interesting info, here's how it breaks down in this years probable Belmont Stakes field. TJ

GR I winners in the Belmont Field (18.1% wins):
American Pharoah, 5 GR I wins
Carpe Diem, 2 GR I wins
Frosted, 1 GR I win
Materiality, 1 GR I win

Maiden win only (11.6% wins):
Conquest Curlinate
Frammento
Keen Ice
Tale Of Verve

GR II winners in the Belmont Field (7.4%):
Madefromlucky, 1 GR II win
Mubtaahij, 1 GR II win

Breaking down the Maiden Winners to those who've had prior Grade 1 experience is also eye-opening: For the Belmont, 27 of the 43 runners had prior Grade 1 experience, and all 5 Winners came from that group.

These three maiden winners qualify:
Frammento
Keen Ice
Tale of Verve


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 Post subject: Re: Belmont angles
PostPosted: Wed May 27, 2015 8:20 am 
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Breeder's Cup Winner

Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:35 pm
Posts: 2004
Location: New Jersey
Aug27

Since 1950 eight 2 year old Champions have won the Belmont, 3 of them were Triple Crown winners, 4 of them were duel Classic winners, and 1 (Easy Goer) ran 2nd in the Derby and 2nd in the Preakness and ran the 2nd fastest Belmont in history at a mile and a half. In my opinion, American Pharoah will become the 9th name on this short list, how is that for an angle?

DDT


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 Post subject: Re: Belmont angles
PostPosted: Wed May 27, 2015 10:10 am 
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Allowance Winner

Joined: Wed Aug 27, 2008 10:29 am
Posts: 326
Good one -- thanks, DDT!
To follow up on that, in addition to the eight Winners, there were also five Losers:
Foolish Pleasure (2nd 1975)
Battlefield (2nd 1951)
Spectacular Bid (3rd 1979)
Rockhill Native (3rd 1980)
Crimson Satan (3rd 1962)


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 Post subject: Re: Belmont angles
PostPosted: Wed May 27, 2015 11:24 am 
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Breeder's Cup Winner

Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:35 pm
Posts: 2004
Location: New Jersey
Aug27

So it works out to 8 out of 13 winners for a better than 60% win percentage and 100% in the money percentage, so if you are betting the trifecta or super you better have the 2 year old champion on your ticket. It produces a pretty nice win/place average for the Exactas as well.

DDT


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