Breeders' Cup Fantasy Game

[Cree]

Lady Eli is just amazing to watch, I still think she was robbed for Champion 2-year-old filly last year Wow.

[TJ]

Top Ten order of finish: 2,4,10, DH(11&14),7,3,5,1,6...........TJ

1 Pine Needles(L) Ch.f.3 121 Ortiz, J Kelly, J & S Clement, Christophe
2 Lady Eli(L) Dk B/ Br.f.3 121 Ortiz, Jr., I Sheep Pond Partners Brown, Chad
3 Sharla Rae(L) B.f.3 121 Rosario, J Wachtel Stable O'Neill, Doug Blk-Off
4 Itsonlyactingdad(L) B.f.3 121 Soumillon, C Starlight Racing Pletcher, Todd
5 Miss Chatelaine(L) Ch.f.3 121 Maragh, R Highland Yard Clement, Christophe
6 Spanish Queen(L) Dk B/ Br.f.3 121 Blanc, B Nakkashian, J Baltas, Richard
7 Consumer Credit(L) Dk B/ Br.f.3 121 Alvarado, J Barber, G Brown, Chad
8 Olorda (GER) B.f.3 121 Velazquez, J Schwartz, M Figge, Michael
9 Gypsy Judy(L) Ch.f.3 121 Velasquez, C Hibbert, J Graham, Robin
10 Outstanding (IRE)(L1) B.f.3 121 O'Donoghue, C Smith, D O'Brien, Aidan
11 Sentiero Italia(L) B.f.3 121 Saez, L Godolphin Stable McLaughlin, Kiaran
12 Daring Duchess(L) B.f.3 121 Lezcano, J Bach Stables Mott, William
13 Lady Zuzu(L) Dk B/ Br.f.3 121 Graham, J Three Chimneys Farm Lukas, D. Wayne
14 Strict Compliance(L) B.f.3 121 Castellano, J Klaravich Stables Brown, Chad

[geowarrior]

Sorry I didn't get to post my picks before the race, but I had Lady Eli (she is spectacular) and Strict Compliance for fourth. 170 points. That was a very difficult one to handicap.

[jellac]

Geowarrior you did quite well - as I'm sure TJ did with his picks - the top handicapper in this contest overall correctly picked 6 finish positions!!

My inaugural effort saw me correctly pick two positions - way back of the top finishers for an almost embarrassing 50 point total....( back to the drawing board!)

Well 28 days until the Haskill to sharpen my handicapping approach!

[TJ]

I think we all have to put on our thinking caps....the good news is the month of August will have 3 contest races, The Haskell, The Whitney and The Travers. With any luck it will be the month to gather some points....if not, it didn't cost us anything to try:>) TJ

[jellac]

TJ - Wise words...in going back to the proverbial 'drawing board' of those of us who insist on attending the school of hard knocks...I realized I need to change my 'mental landscape' in approaching how I pick for this contest. The point is NOT to study the form etc. and ferret out a 'price' pick that can beat the favorite or be bet in a boxed exact if there are two likely candidates to finish ahead of the others - it is as you point out to pick the most likely order of finish in order to gain points so the first thru fourth position picks are really critical, particularly for a late starter like me who also appears to be (I hope!) a bit of a late bloomer in this 'Fantasy Game'. I watched the reply multiple times and was repeatedly AMAZED by Madame Eli's move at the top of the stretch!!! WOW indeed

Second learning was one of those 'Monday morning quarterbacking' moments of regret: I had thought seriously of picking the Irish-bred horse to finish closer to the lead - after all it was a turf race and I consistently see Irish-bred thoroughbreds come to North American/US in particular and prove they can move up in class on our shorter/firm turf courses. Still might not have properly picked where she did finish but felt I had not listened to my own 'inner voice' sufficiently on that choice.

And...I was a bit mollified watching 'my fav - Spanish Queen - (that is, if I was correctly watching the right horse - it threw me at first that the 6 horse - black saddle blanket was ridden by jockey in red/black silks , but I think I finally got it sorted out) - she tried to put in a winning effort but ran into a bit of bad racing luck - first getting moved over to her left one step out of the gate effectively slamming/being slammed by the 4 horse and completely cutting off the 5. Then she was nicely settled and steadily moved up, saving ground on/near the rail path again getting blocked near the top of the stretch such that Brice Blanc had to pull her up hard - I saw her head go up in the air at this point and realized her race was over...no response after that...just glad she finished and doesn't appear to be injured. I felt she was well positioned and clearly poised to make a move going into the stretch but got in a tight spot and had to abort that mission. Perhaps she isn't such a "poor shipper" after all despite the what the finish position might indicate. I don't think it would have mattered if everything had gone her way - she would have surged thru along the rail just in time to see Madame Eli's rump pulling away down the stretch I think.

Do onto the month of August and not one or two but three chances to redeem myself....and you are so right: at least it didn't cost me anything...but a bit of pride

[TJ]

Hi Jellac,
I expected better from Spanish Queen also....those clean trips help:>) Handicapping is very tough and it's not something you will ever get right....so check your pride at the door:>) If you come up with a winner 4 out of 10 times you're doing ok. Picking horses to finish in the order that you pick them is very tough. That means you're picking the winner, the exacta, the triple and the superfecta straight....no boxing. No one does that....we box 4 or 5 horses looking to hit a triple. What I do when handicapping the contest is try to get the top 4 down....then it's very doubtful I'll have them in the exact order. So not to get too disappointed in the contest, I bet my exacta and triple and super boxes and though I'm beat in the contest, I put some money in my pocket:>) TJ

[geowarrior]

Take heart, dear colleagues, the guy from the DRF didn't do any better than we did.

Somehow my score jumped from 170 points to 240 points - don't exactly understand how, but gave me my best placing yet.

I think we are all learning on this one - but it is fun, and that was the hardest race yet IMO.

[TJ]

Take heart, dear colleagues, the guy from the DRF didn't do any better than we did.

Somehow my score jumped from 170 points to 240 points - don't exactly understand how, but gave me my best placing yet.

I think we are all learning on this one - but it is fun, and that was the hardest race yet IMO.

Hi Geo,
I saw the public handicappers...not so good so far:>) 240 Points is a great number in one race.....kudos. I think maybe they were confused with the 4th place dead heat? My total for the two I entered is 270 points and that was an increase in mine also....I was around 4700 overall now it's 4380. Maybe those 4379 people in front of me will forget to play the next race:>) TJ

[geowarrior]

And the next contest race is the Haskell.....

I'm going to postpone my picks for the moment, because although the Haskell has been drawn, it's not clear to me whether Competitive Edge and Upstart are going in the Haskell or in the Jim Dandy.

I wonder who the favorite for the Haskell will be?

[TJ]

And the next contest race is the Haskell.....

I'm going to postpone my picks for the moment, because although the Haskell has been drawn, it's not clear to me whether Competitive Edge and Upstart are going in the Haskell or in the Jim Dandy.

I wonder who the favorite for the Haskell will be?

Hi Geo,
I agree...no sense looking till they decide. I posted the pp's in the Haskell thread. TJ

[TJ]

Here are the entries for this Saturday's GR I Whitney Stakes. I will update the entries (trainers and jockeys) and past performances when the overnight comes out tomorrow. TJ

1. Honor Code – 3/1

2. Tonalist, – 4/1

3. Noble Bird – 5/1

4. Liam’s Map – 6/1

5. Moreno – 12/1

6. V. E. Day – 8/1

7. Lea – 9/2

8. Coach Inge – 15/1

9. Wicked Strong – 20/1

10. Normandy Invasion – 30/1

[geowarrior]

Even without the PP's, I think this could be the most difficult race yet.

[TJ]

Even without the PP's, I think this could be the most difficult race yet.

Hi Geo,
Just posted the pp's under the Whitney thread. TJ