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 Post subject: favorites at Belmont
PostPosted: Fri Jun 05, 2015 9:26 pm 
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Today, we saw 6 horses run as favorites at 6-5 or less, of which only one won ...
Among all post-time betting favorites (ten races), the return on investment ($20) was $13.00.

Many, many times, we see horses that appear unbeatable 'on paper' lose, for a myriad of reasons. Spectacular Bid was one of the best ever to look through a bridle, and he lost the Belmont.

More recently, Big Brown towered over his competition {in reading the DRF}, but he lost -- that should tell us that the game has changed: American's are no longer breeding horses to excel at long distances. I see no reason why we should ever see another Triple Crown winner, until that trend reverses.

Hope AP runs safe, but that 6.3f Dam Sire AWD ought to be a huge caution flag to those on the AP band wagon, IMO.
It's simply not worth the risk, $-wise, to bet on him. (Assuming you bet on horse races with the goal to actually make money in the long term.)

Victor (War Emblem and California Chrome), Gary (Silver Charm), and Kent (Real Quiet and Big Brown) all should have some kind of positive "karma" coming their way, having lost prior Triple Crown bids as favorites. Victor ran off the board with CC at 0.9 in last year's PA Derby and at 0.85 in the Belmont, as well as Stellar Wind in this year's Kty Oaks, so he seems to have had a knack of somehow getting his mounts in trouble. Maybe that's behind him? Kent was more of a 'hard luck' case in his BEL losses, rather than having brought on misfortune through ineptitude (in my opinion,) so maybe he's 'due' for some good luck ...

Best of luck to all of you tomorrow. What a card they have lined up for us at BEL!


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 Post subject: Re: favorites at Belmont
PostPosted: Fri Jun 05, 2015 9:37 pm 
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Hi Aug,
You posted some interesting stuff for us here in the handicapping section...so come clean, who's gonna win the Belmont:>) TJ


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 Post subject: Re: favorites at Belmont
PostPosted: Sat Jun 06, 2015 6:39 am 
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I like Frosted. Played him in the Derby and I'm not going to 'jump ship' now!


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 Post subject: Re: favorites at Belmont
PostPosted: Sat Jun 06, 2015 6:54 am 
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Aug27 wrote:
I like Frosted. Played him in the Derby and I'm not going to 'jump ship' now!

Thanks Aug, been interesting reading your fact finding...good luck!! TJ


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 Post subject: Re: favorites at Belmont
PostPosted: Sat Jun 06, 2015 9:49 am 
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As you noted, the favorites continue to go down at Belmont Park today. Competitive Edge stopped in the Woody Stevens finishing last. No doubt something went wrong? Winner March came from last to get up over pace setter Cinco Charlie and Ready for Rye. TJ


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 Post subject: Re: favorites at Belmont
PostPosted: Sat Jun 06, 2015 10:40 am 
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March tipped us last time - he's a horse to be reckoned with. We were all too busy focusing on Competitive Edge. What went wrong there?


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 Post subject: Re: favorites at Belmont
PostPosted: Sat Jun 06, 2015 11:00 am 
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Cree wrote:
March tipped us last time - he's a horse to be reckoned with. We were all too busy focusing on Competitive Edge. What went wrong there?

Hi Cree,
I'm sure that fracture must have returned....but just a guess. We should hear about it late? TJ

They keep falling by the waist-side today. Untapable beaten easily finishing 2nd as Wedding Party never looked back. Good news for Frosted fans....Kiaren's MCLaughlin's horses are running well. TJ


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 Post subject: Re: favorites at Belmont
PostPosted: Sat Jun 06, 2015 11:07 am 
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I thought about his fracture, I really hope that isn't the case.

Wedding Toast on the front end. March from back of the pack.
I can't figure this track out yet. Still a long day to go!


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 Post subject: Re: favorites at Belmont
PostPosted: Sat Jun 06, 2015 11:11 am 
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Hi Cree,
It's basically a fair track currently...the problem is the bias changes as the track dries out. So far seems like the best horse is winning. These drying out tracks are tough for some horses to handle. I'm sure we will hear that from some of the camps of these beaten favorites. It was the one track Zayat repeated said, long before the Belmont Stakes, he didn't want to see for AP.
This new announcer Colmus, has been messing up royally...he called Cinco Charlie the winner before he hit the wire...then rushed to say here comes March....who won without a photo. Now he just called Untapable will lose 2nd prior to the horses reaching the wire....then quickly said she will hold on....she never looked in danger of losing 2nd? TJ


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 Post subject: Re: favorites at Belmont
PostPosted: Sat Jun 06, 2015 11:45 am 
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He seems to be slow to mention things - like the horse that broke down in the Jaipur. The Woody Stephens was aggravating, he was so busy talking about Competitive Edge he wasn't noticing March making his move.


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