favorites at Belmont
Posted: Fri Jun 05, 2015 9:26 pm
Today, we saw 6 horses run as favorites at 6-5 or less, of which only one won ...
Among all post-time betting favorites (ten races), the return on investment ($20) was $13.00.
Many, many times, we see horses that appear unbeatable 'on paper' lose, for a myriad of reasons. Spectacular Bid was one of the best ever to look through a bridle, and he lost the Belmont.
More recently, Big Brown towered over his competition {in reading the DRF}, but he lost -- that should tell us that the game has changed: American's are no longer breeding horses to excel at long distances. I see no reason why we should ever see another Triple Crown winner, until that trend reverses.
Hope AP runs safe, but that 6.3f Dam Sire AWD ought to be a huge caution flag to those on the AP band wagon, IMO.
It's simply not worth the risk, $-wise, to bet on him. (Assuming you bet on horse races with the goal to actually make money in the long term.)
Victor (War Emblem and California Chrome), Gary (Silver Charm), and Kent (Real Quiet and Big Brown) all should have some kind of positive "karma" coming their way, having lost prior Triple Crown bids as favorites. Victor ran off the board with CC at 0.9 in last year's PA Derby and at 0.85 in the Belmont, as well as Stellar Wind in this year's Kty Oaks, so he seems to have had a knack of somehow getting his mounts in trouble. Maybe that's behind him? Kent was more of a 'hard luck' case in his BEL losses, rather than having brought on misfortune through ineptitude (in my opinion,) so maybe he's 'due' for some good luck ...
Best of luck to all of you tomorrow. What a card they have lined up for us at BEL!
Among all post-time betting favorites (ten races), the return on investment ($20) was $13.00.
Many, many times, we see horses that appear unbeatable 'on paper' lose, for a myriad of reasons. Spectacular Bid was one of the best ever to look through a bridle, and he lost the Belmont.
More recently, Big Brown towered over his competition {in reading the DRF}, but he lost -- that should tell us that the game has changed: American's are no longer breeding horses to excel at long distances. I see no reason why we should ever see another Triple Crown winner, until that trend reverses.
Hope AP runs safe, but that 6.3f Dam Sire AWD ought to be a huge caution flag to those on the AP band wagon, IMO.
It's simply not worth the risk, $-wise, to bet on him. (Assuming you bet on horse races with the goal to actually make money in the long term.)
Victor (War Emblem and California Chrome), Gary (Silver Charm), and Kent (Real Quiet and Big Brown) all should have some kind of positive "karma" coming their way, having lost prior Triple Crown bids as favorites. Victor ran off the board with CC at 0.9 in last year's PA Derby and at 0.85 in the Belmont, as well as Stellar Wind in this year's Kty Oaks, so he seems to have had a knack of somehow getting his mounts in trouble. Maybe that's behind him? Kent was more of a 'hard luck' case in his BEL losses, rather than having brought on misfortune through ineptitude (in my opinion,) so maybe he's 'due' for some good luck ...
Best of luck to all of you tomorrow. What a card they have lined up for us at BEL!