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 Post subject: Union Avenue stakes
PostPosted: Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:17 am 
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Joined: Wed Aug 27, 2008 10:29 am
Posts: 326
Thursday, Saratoga's 9th.
#6 Atlantic 's Smile looks able to control the pace on the front end (I don't see anyone else capable of running a sub-:46 half and hanging around late.)

#1 Prairie Stone is following the same basic training pattern used before her last race, a win:
* Past: 4f bullet work coming off a racing layoff followed by a 3f breeze 9 days later, which was 4 days before the winning race, all at BEL.
* Today: 4f bullet work coming off a racing layoff followed 10 days later by a 3f breeze 5 days before today's race. All at SAR.

I think #6's pace sets it up nicely for #1's close, assuming the jockey can keep her out of trouble!
At 20-1, I'll play her straight, and play exactas with her underneath #6, also using #2 w/Irad Ortiz, since he's so hot @ SAR ...


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 Post subject: Re: Union Avenue stakes
PostPosted: Thu Aug 20, 2015 2:12 pm 
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Darley line
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Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 7:54 am
Posts: 5936
Location: FL, NY
Aug27 wrote:
Thursday, Saratoga's 9th.
#6 Atlantic 's Smile looks able to control the pace on the front end (I don't see anyone else capable of running a sub-:46 half and hanging around late.)

#1 Prairie Stone is following the same basic training pattern used before her last race, a win:
* Past: 4f bullet work coming off a racing layoff followed by a 3f breeze 9 days later, which was 4 days before the winning race, all at BEL.
* Today: 4f bullet work coming off a racing layoff followed 10 days later by a 3f breeze 5 days before today's race. All at SAR.

I think #6's pace sets it up nicely for #1's close, assuming the jockey can keep her out of trouble!
At 20-1, I'll play her straight, and play exactas with her underneath #6, also using #2 w/Irad Ortiz, since he's so hot @ SAR ...

Hi Aug,
Thanks for posting this NY bred Stake. Ortiz is off the 2 horse, don't know why but they took him off his last two mounts at the Spa today? If Willet is anywhere near what she was....this is an easy spot for her, but she's been away a long time. I will try Willet and Tricky Zippy....and either of the Baker trained horses for the tri. TJ


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 Post subject: Re: Union Avenue stakes
PostPosted: Thu Aug 20, 2015 2:32 pm 
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Darley line
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Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 7:54 am
Posts: 5936
Location: FL, NY
Here's the finish:
Tricky Zippy wins it in her first start after being sent to Jimmy Jerkens.
Willet, the old mare ran great off the layoff to be 2nd.
Miss Da Point 3rd, just beating out...
Sister Margaret who ran 4th.


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 Post subject: Re: Union Avenue stakes
PostPosted: Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:23 am 
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Allowance Winner

Joined: Wed Aug 27, 2008 10:29 am
Posts: 326
Good picks, TJ!

I like to play against the favorites ... hence my frequent losses.

Somebody once advised me "Don't quit the day job"
:)


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 Post subject: Re: Union Avenue stakes
PostPosted: Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:43 am 
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Darley line
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Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 7:54 am
Posts: 5936
Location: FL, NY
Aug27 wrote:
Good picks, TJ!

I like to play against the favorites ... hence my frequent losses.

Somebody once advised me "Don't quit the day job"
:)

Hi Aug,
Thanks...I look for value as well, my mantra has been bet a little to win a lot, never bet a lot to win a little:>). That winner was a score...she went from 7-2 to 5-2 in the last flash while the race was in progress. The last NY Bred Jimmy Jerkens took over from another trainer was Effinex, who went to open graded wins in his hands, so I guess he knew she was a lock in there. That great old mare Willet repeatedly beat open company, but she's lost a step or two at her age, but can't ignore her against statebreds. The exacta came back large (27.80) for a 5/2 and 9/5 due to that late money drop. TJ


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