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PostPosted: Fri Sep 11, 2015 9:43 am 
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After a bullet work yesterday over Saratoga's main track, it's very likely McLaughlin will wheel Frosted right back in the $1 million Pennsylvania Derby on September 19th at Parx. Upstart would be in the same boat if he runs, but hasn't returned to the work-tab....expect Violette's decision after he breezes. Entries will be taken Wednesday September 16th, for this perfectly spaced prep race for the mile and a quarter October 31st BC Classic. Here's current probables for the mile and one eighth GR II PA. Derby. Will update changes as we get closer to entry day. TJ

Frosted
Upstart
Gimme Da Lute
Island Town
Madefromlucky


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 11, 2015 11:49 am 
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Gimme Da Lute? Hmmm... What's the distance on this one?


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 11, 2015 1:44 pm 
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geowarrior wrote:
Gimme Da Lute? Hmmm... What's the distance on this one?

Hi Geo,
These are probable starters...others will most likely enter Wednesday. The PA Derby is run next Saturday (9/19) going a mile and an eighth. TJ


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2015 5:10 pm 
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Here's the field for the Pennsylvania Derby. It should be a very good prep for the BC Classic.... Good old Mr Z returns:>) Frosted drew very well, Upstart and Mr Z got the worst....both will have to be sent from their outside post. Pace will be a key factor in this one? Past Performances are below. TJ

10th Race. (C10) Post 5:45PM STAKES
The 36th Running of
PENNSYLVANIA DERBY (Grade II)
Purse $1,000,000 Guaranteed 1 1/8 Miles
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS.
1 WAR STORY (L) Radosevich, J Parker, D 117
2 ISLAND TOWN (L) Wilkes, I Hernandez, Jr., B 122
3 FROSTED (L) McLaughlin, K Rosario, J 124
4 IRON FIST (L) Hollendorfer, J Smith, M 117
5 MADEFROMLUCKY (L) Pletcher, T Velazquez, J 122
6 GIMME DA LUTE (L) Baffert, B Garcia, M 122
7 TOMMY MACHO (L) Pletcher, T Castellano, J 117
8 BATTLE MIDWAY (L) Zito, N Gryder, A 117
9 UPSTART (L) Violette, Jr., R Ortiz, Jr., I 122
10 MR. Z (L) Lukas, D Saez, L 119

Click on Tommy Macho: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatc ... ummary.htm


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 15, 2015 4:57 am 
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Frosted is very much the horse to beat...anything he has run lately should beat these fellas. Quick turnaround for him.

Frosted
Madefromlucky
Upstart


Last edited by Cree on Fri Sep 18, 2015 1:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Tue Sep 15, 2015 8:39 am 
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I've been on the Frosted bandwagon all winter & spring, but now think I may have overestimated him. I am rooting for a huge longshot: War Story. His last race late Pace fig is the highest I can ever recall seeing. Will box him in the exacta with "Lute" (although his prior ventures outside of California have been his worst races to-date ...)


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 15, 2015 11:32 am 
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Mr. Z........again?

I think Frosted is the best here - good to get him out of the shadow of American Pharoah.


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 17, 2015 10:50 am 
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Frosted...reunited with Joel Rosario is the obvious choice. He gets a favorable post position and should sit behind the expected fast pace, which will be forced by Mr. Z from his poor outside post. Gimme Da Lute who will show his usual good speed from favorable inside post and this scenario could spell disaster for both of them?
Madefromlucky...might get lucky from the possible pace scenario to get first run for 2nd.
Upstart...hasn't had a good post since hector was a pup and once again lands in a bad spot. Irad Ortiz could work out a good trip if he can settle him early and stay away from the possible pace dual?
Iron Fist...should improve in 2nd try going 1 1/8th miles, after trying that distance for the first time in his last start. Ran 3rd to American Pharoah and Calculator when he was a maiden. TJ


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 18, 2015 1:08 pm 
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Gimme Da Lute is out.

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/thoro ... nia-derby/


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 18, 2015 2:51 pm 
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Cree wrote:

Hi Cree,
Thanks for that update. It may just change my picks....without Lute, the pace scenario may not develop. Back to the drawing board to see if there is a chance the "other" speeds will hold on longer? TJ


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 18, 2015 4:20 pm 
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From an I-just-like-the-horse perspective, I'd really like to see Upstart win this. He's such a game horse and tries so hard, it would be nice to see him end his 3-year-old year on a good note.


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2015 8:38 am 
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I do believe that Frosted has a class advantage and running style to get the job done, plus it is at a distance he seems to prefer, however, he will be bet off the board so I will play a pick 3 with the 9th, 10th and 11th races. I like 8,3,9 with 3,5 with 6,13, a $1.00 ticket costs $12.00, a late double using 3,5 with 6,13 might also be worth a bet at a cost of $8.00 for a $2.00 ticket. Good luck to all and may they return safe and sound.

DDT


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2015 2:54 pm 
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Here's the finish:
Frosted...Rosario is his ticket, reserved early and ran away and hid through the lane.
Iron Fist...decent 2nd, well clear of third place
Tommy Macho
Mr. Z


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2015 2:58 pm 
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It's nice to see Frosted win something, must be nice for his self-confidence :-)
Nice call on Iron Fist.
I'm never betting on Upstart or Madefromlucky again.

I did terrible with my trifecta's today.


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PostPosted: Sat Sep 19, 2015 3:09 pm 
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Cree wrote:
It's nice to see Frosted win something, must be nice for his self-confidence :-)
Nice call on Iron Fist.
I'm never betting on Upstart or Madefromlucky again.

I did terrible with my trifecta's today.

Hi Cree,
Both those horses Madefromlucky and Upstart have been a disappointment when they pit them against the better 3YO's. I agree it was really good to see Frosted win like that. Although he came back quickly...it should work to his advantage in the Classic.....he's been in need of getting a few starts into him. The good news is Rosario is back on board and he rides Frosted in the style McLaughlin worked so hard to develop. He was a speed crazy type in Florida before the makeover for the Wood and the little snip here and there in his throat:>) I think the BC Classic will be a great race, looking forward to it! TJ


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