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PostPosted: Sat Apr 16, 2016 4:46 pm 
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Sorry guys I had a busy few days and wasn't able to post the final two Derby point races. But there didn't seem to be a surprise in the Arkansas Derby as Asmussen stamped his runner, Creator a solid Derby contender....he was the other Tapit horse which I mentioned to Dub:>).....
Here's the result:
Creator...solid winner came from dead last and looks like a Derby contender.
Suddenbreakingnews...ran a much improved race with a strong finish!
Whitmore was 3rd
Dazzling Gem was 4th.

Here's the finish of the Lexington Stakes, tis one may noy have any meaning toward a Derby spot since the winner gets only 10 points. TJ
Here's the finish:
Collected
One More Round
Synchrony
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 16, 2016 7:50 pm 
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Nice race by Creator. He is a horse on the improve, no doubt.
But...Suddenbreakingnews has really grown on me. I love the way he runs! He had a tough go of it swinging wide today on the final turn, but he sure is determined.

At this point I still don't have a Derby horse, I think I need to wait this year out.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 17, 2016 7:05 am 
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Cree wrote:
Nice race by Creator. He is a horse on the improve, no doubt.
But...Suddenbreakingnews has really grown on me. I love the way he runs! He had a tough go of it swinging wide today on the final turn, but he sure is determined.

At this point I still don't have a Derby horse, I think I need to wait this year out.

Hi Cree,
Creator might be a jump ahead of Assmussen's Curlin at this point in his career as far as preparation goes since he raced as a 2YO and Curlin did not having to buck the curse of Apollo:>). I like that Asmussen used the same preps as he did with Curlin and I like the way he's been prepared so perfectly to get his Derby berth and could very well have another forward move in him? I also like his fast track beyer (96), considering beyers have been low and it's 4th best of all the Derby preps. Only 3 other prep winners broke the 100 beyer barrier (Destin 100, Danzing Candy 100....both on fast tracks and beyer topper, Exaggerator had a blow out 103 in his off track win). Suddenbreakingnews certainly looks to have the longest stride of all the derby contenders...considering both Creator and Suddenbreakingnews...add then Mo Tom, Exaggerator, Brody's Cause and Mor Spirit and others contenders that come from far back, they will need a perfect trip to make it home on top in a 20 horse Derby field.
Then there is Collected who won his 2nd Derby prep race in the Lexington....and he could carry the ball on the front end for Baffert after Cupid dropped it in Arkansas....or will he try to push Nyquist into defeat and help his Mor Spirit:>)
To say I have my derby horse, that won't happen....but this race showed a couple up and comers for sure. Yet considering running styles, track conditions and pace, I can't be sure of anything till I see where these horses draw and where the speed horses line up in the gate? I know this, I like this years group of horses....some solid hard trying 3YO's despite the low beyer numbers. TJ


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 17, 2016 7:15 am 
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Here's the replay of the Ark. Derby. TJ
http://www1.drf.com/displayVideo.do?tra ... ountry=USA


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 17, 2016 7:16 am 
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Here's the replay of the Lexington S. TJ
http://www1.drf.com/displayVideo.do?tra ... ountry=USA


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 17, 2016 1:44 pm 
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Collected may not have the points to get in. And I see him not carrying that speed for 10 furlongs.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 17, 2016 2:00 pm 
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Cree wrote:
Collected may not have the points to get in. And I see him not carrying that speed for 10 furlongs.

Hi Cree,
Yes you are right, only way he gets in is with 1/2 the field withdrawing due to injury....sure don't want to see that. The last spot now is owned by a 40 point earner, maiden Trojan Nation. Some nice horses were knocked out that had 32 points. Will post the new and final derby points standings now. TJ


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 18, 2016 8:05 pm 
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Here’s an interesting stat, that applies to Creator (who did look really good coming down the lane in the Arkansas Derby):
Over the past 32 years, horses who ran 1st or 2nd in their final prep at odds of 7-1 or higher are 1-for-101 in the Kentucky Derby {1%}.
* to clarify, 101 starters in the Derby met that criteria, and only one -- Charismatic -- actually won the KD.

In contrast, horses who ran 1st or 2nd in their final prep at odds under 7-1 are 25-for-253 {10%}.
Just thought that was kind of interesting ... those who "outran their odds" in their final prep have not done that well historically. But, 2016 is a new year.


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