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 Post subject: Destin Works
PostPosted: Sat Apr 23, 2016 11:43 am 
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Pletcher made the decision to to train Destin up to the Kentucky Derby despite the fact it will be eight weeks without a race. He had a serious 5/8ths move today in 1:00.32 at the Delray Beach Florida Training Center, Palm Beach Downs. After he put away his workmate, who I believe was the 4YO Savoy Stomp? He continued to gallop out very strong, unofficially 1:11.28, 1:25.83 and a mile in 1:39.94. Pletcher is trying a new approach to the Derby with this one and he's had much success running horses off layoffs in the past...we will see. This one a very good move over this training track. TJ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N8UJBh7_Ix0


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 Post subject: Re: Destin Works
PostPosted: Sat Apr 23, 2016 7:31 pm 
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I think he has a real shot, given his running style, the likely pace scenario, his speed figures, and the favorite's breeding.


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 Post subject: Re: Destin Works
PostPosted: Sat Apr 23, 2016 11:39 pm 
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Aug27 wrote:
I think he has a real shot, given his running style, the likely pace scenario, his speed figures, and the favorite's breeding.

Hi Aug,
I tend to agree with you about Destin, but I know how you like stats, as you pointed out with the Creator stat. Unfortunately the Stats are piled up against Pletcher and Destin as well. If they can pull off this Derby win, after an eight-week layoff, it would be the first time since 1915 when Regret, the first filly to win the Kentucky Derby, did so in her 3YO debut (off nearly a 9 month layoff) after sweeping all three of her 2YO races at Saratoga (August -May).
Since 1929, there were only 4 Kentucky Derby winners that won the Derby with a five-week layoff coming into the Derby: Barbaro (2006), Big Brown (2008), Mine That Bird, (2009) and Orb (2013).
Once again since 1929, only 2 Kentucky Derby winners were able to win the Derby off a six-week layoff coming into the Derby: Needles (1956) and Animal Kingdom (2011). TJ


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 Post subject: Re: Destin Works
PostPosted: Sun Apr 24, 2016 5:53 am 
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Hi TJ,

That's good info.
The five week layoff stat could actually be spun as a good thing: in the past ten years, four have won. Right?


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 Post subject: Re: Destin Works
PostPosted: Sun Apr 24, 2016 7:30 am 
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Aug27 wrote:
Hi TJ,

That's good info.
The five week layoff stat could actually be spun as a good thing: in the past ten years, four have won. Right?

Hi Aug,
Yes I agree, especially concerning Pletcher's strike rate's at 5 to 6 week intervals. Much of the modern training techniques have been based on 5-6 weeks between starts. This came to the fore due to the sheet figures/rags and their bounce theory. I also believe it is why Pletcher has had a hard time winning the Derby, since the preps don't really allow for his preferred time interval between starts considering he tries to keep his many Derby possibles from running against one another.
That being said...off the current eight week layoff Destin will have to overcome, no horse has ever been able to win the Derby within that time frame. Yet Destin does have some very strong points, considering pace, considering he broke the track record at Tampa Bay Downs at the 1 1/16th mile distance (which also bettered Street Sense's Tampa Bay Derby record) and that eye popping recent workout. This certainly would be an outstanding piece of training by Master Pletcher and I personally think if it can be done, he'll be the one to do it. Looking forward to his next breeze at Churchill Downs. He's headed there tomorrow and will post it under this thread. TJ


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 Post subject: Re: Destin Works
PostPosted: Sun May 01, 2016 9:56 pm 
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TJ wrote:
Aug27 wrote:
If they can pull off this Derby win, after an eight-week layoff, it would be the first time since 1915 when Regret, the first filly to win the Kentucky Derby, did so in her 3YO debut (off nearly a 9 month layoff)




What are you talking about?


Sir Barton hadn't raced since September of the previous year.


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 Post subject: Re: Destin Works
PostPosted: Mon May 02, 2016 6:08 am 
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hello JimbleBrimble,
You are correct, in both 1915 and 1919 the KD winners were coming off long layoffs (but should not have given the appearance that the quote is attributable to me.)
The data suggests that every hundred years or so, we get some Derby winners coming off long layoffs ... So maybe "the time is right" for Destin.


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 Post subject: Re: Destin Works
PostPosted: Mon May 02, 2016 1:33 pm 
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JimbleBrimble wrote:
TJ wrote:
Aug27 wrote:
If they can pull off this Derby win, after an eight-week layoff, it would be the first time since 1915 when Regret, the first filly to win the Kentucky Derby, did so in her 3YO debut (off nearly a 9 month layoff)




What are you talking about?


Sir Barton hadn't raced since September of the previous year.

Hi Jimble,
Thanks for the correction and so sorry I made the error....looks like he'll be the 3nd horse in Derby history to pull it off....and Pletcher has the credentials to do it considering his layoff stats. TJ


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