Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

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TJ
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Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

Postby TJ » Fri May 27, 2016 2:19 pm

The field is starting to take shape for the 148th running of the GR I Belmont Stakes. A very interesting new shooter will very likely enter the fray after running 2nd in the Peter Pan Stakes. The winner of the event Unified, will pass and most likely run in the Woody Stephens or the Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth, but the 2nd place finisher Governor Malibu looks like a probable starter. Here's the way it looks so far. TJ

Exaggerator...probable
Cherry Wine...probable
Suddenbreakingnews...probable
Lani...probable
Destin...probable
Brody's Cause...probable
Governor Mailbu...probable
Stradivari...probable
Mo Tom..Out of Belmont Stakes, will go to Ohio Derby
Creator...probable
Wild About Deb...possible (NEW), 3rd in the Peter Pan Stakes
Trojan Nation...possible? (New)
Forever d'Oro...possible (New)
Seeking The Soul...possible (New)
Gettysburg...probable (New)
Last edited by TJ on Mon Jun 06, 2016 1:35 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

Postby TJ » Fri Jun 03, 2016 8:57 am

Here's the past performances for the "most" probable Belmont Stakes starters. There are two recent maiden breakers, trained by Dallas Stewart, who are under consideration for the Belmont Stakes. They are Forever d'Oro and Seeking The Soul...both are recently under consideration, so they are not listed in the below past performances. TJ
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/B ... akes16.pdf

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Re: Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

Postby TJ » Mon Jun 06, 2016 1:33 pm

Pletcher just added a 3rd runner to the Belmont Stakes, Gettysburg....seems as though his client WinStar Farm, wants to assure a quick pace for their other two in the Belmont Stakes....Exaggerator and Creator, who are trained by two other trainers? Kind of strange when you think Pletcher could be directly hurt by the move, considering both his entries will be part of the pace factor, Stradivari and Destin. TJ
PS...the probables starter pp's have been updated to include Stewart's 2 maiden breakers, Gettysburg is the only one not yet listed.

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Re: Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

Postby TJ » Tue Jun 07, 2016 10:41 am

TJ wrote:Pletcher just added a 3rd runner to the Belmont Stakes, Gettysburg....seems as though his client WinStar Farm, wants to assure a quick pace for their other two in the Belmont Stakes....Exaggerator and Creator, who are trained by two other trainers? Kind of strange when you think Pletcher could be directly hurt by the move, considering both his entries will be part of the pace factor, Stradivari and Destin. TJ
PS...the probables starter pp's have been updated to include Stewart's 2 maiden breakers, Gettysburg is the only one not yet listed.

This makes a bit more sense now, couldn't understand why Pletcher would enter Gettysburg and take the pace advantage away from his two entries. Gettysburg has been trained and raced by WinStar and Pletcher until a couple days ago. WinStar turned the horse over to Steve Asmussen who also trains Creator for them. This from Elliott Walden, the president/CEO and racing manager at WinStar, he told Daily Racing Form Monday, "When you start talking strategies and a trainer has multiple horses in the race it can get a little confusing sometimes. The fact Steve (Asmussen) has Gettysburg and Creator and we're his only owner takes out the conflict of having multiple horses in the race for different owners and Todd was 100 percent behind it."
Reminds me of the old days when they cooked Dr. Fager on the front end using Hedevar as a rabbit. I think they might find out that works well at some distances, but I doubt it will work going a mile and a half in the Belmont Stakes. Can't wait to see how the pace dynamic will unfold during the running and if it will help the deep closers to overcome the speed bias at the distance? TJ

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Re: Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

Postby skeenan » Wed Jun 08, 2016 9:18 am

It is going to be interesting! I like Destin's backstory: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/212239/small-time-breeder-scores-big-with-destin

He's shown some speed at a mile plus (100 Beyer figure), as did Creator, Stradivari, Cherry Wine and of course, Exaggerator (thanks for posting the PPs, TJ!). I'm wondering if Cherry Wine will get Exaggerator this time, if both have a clear trip. Or, if we'll be surprised! :D I'd love to see Creator run the race like he did in the Arkansas Derby.

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Re: Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

Postby TJ » Wed Jun 08, 2016 1:51 pm

skeenan wrote:It is going to be interesting! I like Destin's backstory: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/212239/small-time-breeder-scores-big-with-destin

He's shown some speed at a mile plus (100 Beyer figure), as did Creator, Stradivari, Cherry Wine and of course, Exaggerator (thanks for posting the PPs, TJ!). I'm wondering if Cherry Wine will get Exaggerator this time, if both have a clear trip. Or, if we'll be surprised! :D I'd love to see Creator run the race like he did in the Arkansas Derby.

Hi Skeenan,
The Belmont entries closed today. Looks like all the probables have shown up (except Wild About Deb)....will post in another thread. The speed in the field drew well...it could give them the edge? TJ

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Re: Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

Postby skeenan » Sat Jun 11, 2016 7:07 pm

I'm happy two horses I had an eye on (besides Exaggerator) finished 1st and 2nd... of course, I had no money involved... that's why! :roll: