2016 BC Pre-Entries

[TJ]

Click on the link below....this looks like one of the best BC events ever. TJ
http://i.bloodhorse.com/pdfs/2016Breede ... ntries.pdf

[Aug27]

I am really excited about this year's set of races.
Disappointed the Sprint came up so short, and surprised by Runhappy's selection to the Dirt Mile.

Big question for me: will we finally see "the good Frosted" in the big race?

[TJ]

Hi Aug,
I agree...this will be a great BC Event. The Classic will be a great race for sure...I think Frosted will be ready for his best, but with California Chrome and Arrogate racing at their home track, Frosted will be hard pressed to beat them at the distance. I thought they should have run Frosted in the BC Dirt Mile...he ran so well winning The Met Handicap at a mile at Belmont Park getting a huge beyer. He would have been a standout in that spot.
Runhappy...he is quite a horse. His race going a mile for the first time wasn't bad considering the time off going into the race....but he worked twice since, going a mile both times, I wonder how much he can take?
Hopefully they'll have the past performances out before next Wednesday...soon as they put them up I'll post them so we can have enough time to lose our money:>) TJ

[Cree]

I am not at all happy to see Holy Lute, Lady Shipman, and Green Mask as AE's in the Turf Sprint. Huh???
Catch A Glimpse, Om, and Obviously over those 3. Seems absurd.
And, hasn't anyone told Undrafted's trainer that he doesn't really run well in these races anymore?

More comments to come...

[Aug27]

Catch A Glimpse was a surprise for me, in that particular race (not what I'd expected.)

Frosted has certainly not fared well beyond 9.5f. Maybe it is a pedigree thing, IDK. Running style and efficiency of stride seem to have overtaken stamina in US-bred thoroughbreds during my lifetime, in terms of their influence on success in classic races.

Interesting when looking at the Equibase speed figures for the Classic.
Here are the top figs, in decreasing order:

DATE RUNNER EQB_FIG MOV

8/6/2016 FROSTED 124 2
8/27/2016 ARROGATE 123 13½
6/11/2016 FROSTED 122 14¼
7/4/2015 EFFINEX 122 hd
8/20/2016 CALIFORNIA CHROME 121 5
10/1/2016 CALIFORNIA CHROME 120 2¼
7/23/2016 CALIFORNIA CHROME 120 ½
10/30/2015 HOPPERTUNITY 117 4
9/3/2016 SHAMAN GHOST 116 hd
9/3/2016 FROSTED 116 hd
10/8/2016 HOPPERTUNITY 115 ½
7/9/2016 EFFINEX 115 nk
10/8/2016 EFFINEX 114 2½
6/25/2016 MELATONIN 114 1½
6/18/2016 GUN RUNNER 114 5¼
2/6/2016 HOPPERTUNITY 114 no
6/24/2016 ARROGATE 113 5¼
4/16/2016 EFFINEX 113 1

{MOV is margin of victory}

I usually prefer the Brisnet speed figures, but do not have them yet.

[TJ]

I am not at all happy to see Holy Lute, Lady Shipman, and Green Mask as AE's in the Turf Sprint. Huh???
Catch A Glimpse, Om, and Obviously over those 3. Seems absurd.
And, hasn't anyone told Undrafted's trainer that he doesn't really run well in these races anymore?

More comments to come...

Hi Cree,
These are pre-entries so of those in the body of the Sprint, Catch A Glimpse (whose 2nd preference is the Sprint) will be withdrawn and run in the F&M Turf as she is qualified to be in the body of that race and not an AE. Others in the body of the Sprint...Home Of The Brave, Karar, Obviously and Om have preference to run in the Mile...but, they are not in the body of their preferred race and are hoping to draw in through scratches. So as it stands, Holy Lute will be in the body of the race leaving Lady Shipman on the bubble and Green Mask hoping for additional defections. This will be decided on Oct. 31st, Halloween:>)...when official entries will be taken and post positions will be drawn. TJ

[TJ]

NYQUIST will not run in BC Classic after coming out of his final BC workout (10/29) with a "puffy ankle".
Earlier last week, Bradester was declared from the BC Dirt Mile. In addition Gun Runner and War Story have first preference to run in the Classic and Midnight Storm's first prefernece is the Mile (turf) as is Vyjack's preference....but Vyjack did not draw into the Mile as yet, so it currently leaves only 8 entrants to run in the Dirt Mile. TJ

[TJ]

Looks like Gun Runner will exit his preferred BC Classic and stay in the Dirt Mile...makes sense considering it will be an easier and smaller field?
Entries will be taken later today for 11 of the BC races between 1-2 PM Pacific time and later in the day, 3:30-5:30 they will draw the Distaff and Classic. Hopefully the overnights will come out Monday around 4-5 PM Eastern time...if they do, will post them here when they are released. TJ

[kimberley mine]

Aug27, what you posted is why I hate speed figures.

Yes, Frosted ran away and hid from the field in the Whitney....over a decent horse who hasn't won in a Gr1 this year (Effinex), a horse who is a solid Gr2 type (Noble Bird), a useful Listed winner (Comfort), and a useful Gr3 horse who tailed off in form over the year (Upstart). Yes, Arrogate wowed us all...over a G3 winner who looks like a nice money-earner but not a Gr1 horse (American Freedom), a perpetual bridesmaid who defected to the dirt mile (Gun Runner), a bunch of useful listed horses who will not make it in Gr1 open company, and all three winners of the TC races who have between them won exactly one race after the TC was over.

Frosted flopped in his next out, and Arrogate hasn't raced since.

Compare that to California Chrome, who cleaned Frosted's clock in Dubai running five wide under level weights with his saddlegirth around his bellybutton, came home to run his worst race of the year winning by only a half length over a tough seasoned Gr1 competitor, bounced back off of that to hand the reigning champion older mare and future Jockey Club Gold Cup winner their butts by winning in 2:00 and change all wrapped up in a canter, and followed that with a 9f run in which he said to Dortmund, "Beep Beep" and was the roadrunner and Acme products all in one. Meanwhile, the horse who came in a WELL beaten fourth in the Pac Classic (and who finished 2 spots ahead of Frosted in Dubai) went east to duck Chrome and won over the second-place horse in the Whitney.

The west coast racing is tougher, deeper, and more consistent. The horses are on their home track and their form is consistent. The division leader, California Chrome, hasn't run sub-2 for 10f only because he wasn't asked, and he's put away every horse from every angle even when nothing went his way.

[TJ]

Aug27, what you posted is why I hate speed figures.

Yes, Frosted ran away and hid from the field in the Whitney....over a decent horse who hasn't won in a Gr1 this year (Effinex), a horse who is a solid Gr2 type (Noble Bird), a useful Listed winner (Comfort), and a useful Gr3 horse who tailed off in form over the year (Upstart). Yes, Arrogate wowed us all...over a G3 winner who looks like a nice money-earner but not a Gr1 horse (American Freedom), a perpetual bridesmaid who defected to the dirt mile (Gun Runner), a bunch of useful listed horses who will not make it in Gr1 open company, and all three winners of the TC races who have between them won exactly one race after the TC was over.

Frosted flopped in his next out, and Arrogate hasn't raced since.

Compare that to California Chrome, who cleaned Frosted's clock in Dubai running five wide under level weights with his saddlegirth around his bellybutton, came home to run his worst race of the year winning by only a half length over a tough seasoned Gr1 competitor, bounced back off of that to hand the reigning champion older mare and future Jockey Club Gold Cup winner their butts by winning in 2:00 and change all wrapped up in a canter, and followed that with a 9f run in which he said to Dortmund, "Beep Beep" and was the roadrunner and Acme products all in one. Meanwhile, the horse who came in a WELL beaten fourth in the Pac Classic (and who finished 2 spots ahead of Frosted in Dubai) went east to duck Chrome and won over the second-place horse in the Whitney.

The west coast racing is tougher, deeper, and more consistent. The horses are on their home track and their form is consistent. The division leader, California Chrome, hasn't run sub-2 for 10f only because he wasn't asked, and he's put away every horse from every angle even when nothing went his way.

Hi Kimberley,
It is funny how these figures are said to be interchangeable through various distances other than just the distance where they earned a particularly high figure. The figures Aug quoted were Equibase figs and Frosted (124) received that number at a mile distance, he tumbles to a 105 at the BC Classic distance. They are said to be interchangable through any distance, though I've yet to really see that to be true:>) What is interesting at the 1 1/4 distance is that these figures, Equbase put Arrogate (123) and our 2015 Horse of The Year, California Chrome (122) 2 points away from each other. Actually the closest of all the other figures strictly at 1 1/4 miles.
Brisnet Figures put Arrogate at 124 and California Chrome at 112, as a comparison Effinex has 110 at the distance.
Beyer Speed figures have Arrogate at 122 and California Chrome at 109. The last two figures seem quite skewed by comparison...though no doubt Arrogate's performance was one for the record books. Yet that being said we also know that Unbridled's Song's progeny are extremely fast and classy but don't last for long on the track. We also know when a horse runs a number that large....it could leave him drained. On the bright side, the time off can only help him...not always a good thing when going a mile and a quarter, but Bob Baffert did the same thing last year with American Pharoah albeit he was far more seasoned than Arrogate? So this will be a very interesting puzzle to put together and a very exciting race to try to make sense of:>) No doubt California Chrome is just amazing and it will take another off the charts performance by Arrogate to handle him. TJ

[kimberley mine]

Beyer Speed figures have Arrogate at 122 and California Chrome at 109. The last two figures seem quite skewed by comparison...though no doubt Arrogate's performance was one for the record books.

Arrogate's performance was sparkling...and I watched Mike Smith get into him at the top of the lane to get away from American Freedom. Hit him with the stick right-handed, switched to left, then hand ride to the wire. In the Pac Classic, Chrome was never threatened and Victor only moved to look around and see where everybody was. Arrogate ran faster, but did he run a better race?

This is why I bet on form, not on figures. Arrogate is the most likely threat to Chrome based on that one run. That said, he's only done that once and he had everything all his way. He's not going to get that next week.

[TJ]

Well, looks like Arrogate will have to be sent on his merry way after drawing the extreme outside in the field of 10, or be hung out to dry:>) California Chrome is in the 4 hole with two closers in 1 and 3. Frosted drew the two post...but looks like Chrome gets the advantage in the post position draw. TJ
1. Effinex
2. Frosted
3. Keen Ice
4. California Chrome
5. Win The Space
6. Melatonin
7. War Story
8. Shaman Ghost
9. Hoppertunity
10. Arrogate

[kimberley mine]

Chrome ran 5 wide in the desert and won going away, and ran in the 4 path in the Pac Classic and won going away.

I can *totally* see Victor doing some race riding and running Chrome early in the 4 path, forcing Arrogate to either blaze past him or duck behind him to the rail. And because Arrogate isn't as seasoned as the rest of the field, him falling for it.

I can also see Melatonin and Arrogate going at it early on.

[TJ]

Chrome ran 5 wide in the desert and won going away, and ran in the 4 path in the Pac Classic and won going away.

I can *totally* see Victor doing some race riding and running Chrome early in the 4 path, forcing Arrogate to either blaze past him or duck behind him to the rail. And because Arrogate isn't as seasoned as the rest of the field, him falling for it.

I can also see Melatonin and Arrogate going at it early on.

Hi Kimberley,
There's so many scenario's we envision as we go over the pace involved in the Classic. I agree Victor should send Chrome away from there while Smith is deciding what to do from the outside...but then I was thinking the outside was a bad spot for Arrogate...not so sure now. The long run into the first turn allows Smith to take in the race as it unfolds with time enough to make an unpressured decision when to go. This could just benefit Arrogate? BUT, you hit it on the head with Arrogate...he's lacking the salt and pepper which I have said before:>) Also his sire is iffy as far as soundness goes....so these two facts can hurt his chances facing the relentless California Chrome. No doubt Melatonin could try to hang Arrogate out to dry, keeping him wide down the long run to the first turn...but if Talamo tries that, he would just cut off his nose to spite his face as he helps no one but Chrome? I doubt any of these riders will try something Smith hasn't all ready seen and IF Arrogate is fit and sound for this race (which Baffert says he is?? I've heard that before:>), he is in a good spot to apply pressure to the Champ from his outside, pressure that he's never seen before. Arrogate certainly is up against it on class and experience...but considering his raw talent shown in winning the Travers, he could be in another zip code. Arrogate does not need the lead and he can rate kindly...he's got a tremendous stride and reminds me in so many ways of American Pharoah, minus the salt and pepper:>)
All this being said I still have about another two+ hours before I delve into the BC Classic:>) So much of this scenario will probably be scrapped after I look:>) I hope you will join us in making fools of ourselves trying to pick all the BC winners:>) TJ

[kimberley mine]

Melatonin is the only horse in the field besides Arrogate to have won a sub-2:00 10f this year. Leaving aside that Chrome would have done that in the Pac Classic had he been asked, I'm not so sure Melatonin hooking up with Arrogate would be cutting off his nose to spite his face.

If I'm chucking in $2 for a price, Melatonin is my pick. I'm not going to miss $2 if he flops.