Pedigree Query

The Rebel Stakes brings out another solid group of top class 3YO's. Over the last 7 running's of the Rebel Stakes, Baffert's won it 6 times and he ships over yet another highly regarded 3YO for this renewal. PP's below. TJ

10th Race. Post 6:06PM STAKES
The 57th Running ofTHE REBEL (Grade II)
$900,000 Guaranteed 1 1/16 Miles THREE YEAR OLDS.
1 SILVER BULLION (L) '14 C R23 115 Vazquez, R Calumet Farm Lukas, D
2 UNCONTESTED (L) '14 C 0 122 Hill, C LaPenta, Robert V. and Rosenblum, Harry T. Catalano, W
3 SONNETEER (L) '14 C 115 Eramia, R Calumet Farm Desormeaux, J
4 PETROV (L) '14 C 0 115 Ortiz, J Rialto Racing Stables, LLC, Southern Springs StableKumin,Moquett R
5 UNTRAPPED (L) '14 C 30 115 Ortiz, Jr., I Langford, M Asmussen, S
6 MALAGACY (L) '14 C 38 115 Castellano, J Sumaya U.S. Stable Pletcher, T
7 AMERICAN ANTHEM (L) '14 C 38 115 Smith, M WinStar Farm LLC, China Horse Club International Baffert, B
8 SILVER DUST (L) '14 C 0 115 Lanerie, C Durant, T Morse, RL
9 APPALACHIAN GEM (L) '14 C R25 115 Stevens, G Mark DeDomenico LLC Van Berg, J
10 ROYAL MO (L) '14 C 122 Espinoza, V Moss, Mr. and Mrs. Jerome S. Shirreffs, J
11 LOOKIN AT LEE (L) '14 C 0 117 Santana, Jr., R L and N Racing LLC Asmussen, S

Click on American Anthem: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatc ... ummary.htm

I think the pace setup favors Untrapped who has improved with added distance.

Serious question: How to people visualize the pace scenario without twisting their heads around? Expert PP's? I find it way too much work, so it's a handicapping angle I usually ignore, probably to my great disadvantage.

I am not too much of a handicapper but I look at the PPs to see if there are a predominance of runners who like to run on or near the lead. If there are, there is likely to be a battle to see who gets the lead in the upcoming race, which produces a fast opening half mile. The more energy expended by the front runners in the first part of the race, the less energy they have to close. So the pace advantage goes to closers who did not try to get the early lead and conserved their energy during the first half of the race.

On the other hand, if there is only one high class front runner in the race, that horse is likely to get an easy lead, not expend too much energy during the first half of the race and have plenty of energy to close with, making him hard to catch.

It looks to me like most of the good horses in the Rebel have a history of running near the lead. The best of the closers seems to be Untrapped.

The Tapit colt may be progressing enough to be among the first three at the wire.

Hard for me to look past such a good-looking horse as Royal Mo. I don't think Baffert's colt was flattered by Gormley.

Royal Mo
Petrov
Untrapped

American Anthem
Malagacy
Petrov
Royal Mo

Untrapped
Royal Mo
Silver Dust
Petrov

Here's the finish of the Rebel Stakes:
Malagacy... answered the question, will he go two turns?...he said YES.
Sonneteer...was 2nd by a large nose.
Untrapped...was 3rd by a small nose.
Petrov...finished 4th.

Untrapped had the setup. Malagacy was just too good.

Malagacy showed us he will go two turns...but he is a small yet handy little horse who had the perfect trip. Of course to have a perfect trip you must be in the right place at the right time and due to his sprint speed he was. Baffert's chances are dwindling after the poor performance by American Anthem. Mike Smith said he slipped behind coming out of the gate and when he was asked to pick it up, he was all over the place indicating he may not of handled the surface...guess we have heard this story before?? That being said, by now we know Baffert usually finds a way to turn things around. What was discouraging is the low Beyer Malagacy received for the race...putting him at the low end of the Derby prep race scale at 89. Here's the race replay. TJ
http://www1.drf.com/displayVideo.do?tra ... ountry=USA

Love Malagacy's pedigree. Unusual inbreeding to Pleasant Colony. Opinions on this?

Toccet02 wrote:Serious question: How to people visualize the pace scenario without twisting their heads around? Expert PP's? I find it way too much work, so it's a handicapping angle I usually ignore, probably to my great disadvantage.

I'm not a big time handicapper but pace is really important. Its an inexact science but some handicapping tools focus on this a lot. The E, P, S designations in some datasets are a starting point. So much of a race depends on who is pressured, how long, how fast they go early, and who is able to relax and run according to the horses preferred style. Then once you figure that out - then toss it in the air and forget about it because the horse will stumble at the gate or the jock will be asleep at the gate and lose the race before the first jump.

jm