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 Post subject: Derby points
PostPosted: Sat Apr 08, 2017 5:03 pm 
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Interestingly, the last four Derby's (where the point system has been in place), the winner of the Derby has twice been the points leader going into the big race (Orb and Chrome), and the other two winners have been 2nd on the list (Nyquist) and 4th (American Pharoah).

Which means - the winner of a big prep race is your likely winner...? I am grasping at straws because this year is wild.

We have the Arkansas Derby (100 points to winner) and the Lexington (10 points to winner) left.

At the bottom of the Derby points list are the following horses with 40 points:
McCraken, Battle of Midway, Patch, Battalion Runner, Cloud Computing; and in the 20th spot is Untrapped with 34 points.

Untrapped is scheduled for the Arkansas Derby, so he could move up.

A few of these will be bumped off the list after the Arkansas Derby. Hoping McCraken and Battle of Midway make it in the big race. My math is terrible, but I think they will still?


Last edited by Cree on Sat Apr 08, 2017 5:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Derby points
PostPosted: Sat Apr 08, 2017 5:06 pm 
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These are the possibles for the Arkansas Derby that I could find, with their ranking on the points list in brackets:

One Liner (33rd)
Classic Empire (21st)
Petrov (30th)
Silver Dust (42nd)
Untrapped (20th)
Sonneteer (26th)
Malagacy (12th)


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 Post subject: Re: Derby points
PostPosted: Sat Apr 08, 2017 5:46 pm 
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I wonder if Lookin At Lee might show up for that race? He ran a sneaky good race last time? Last shot at the Derby will bring lots of late runners to this race:>) TJ


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 Post subject: Re: Derby points
PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 12:33 pm 
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Cree wrote:
These are the possibles for the Arkansas Derby that I could find, with their ranking on the points list in brackets:

One Liner (33rd)
Classic Empire (21st)
Petrov (30th)
Silver Dust (42nd)
Untrapped (20th)
Sonneteer (26th)
Malagacy (12th)

Hi Cree,
One Liner will miss the race....they didn't like the way he worked today. Also Asmussen will most likely enter Lookin At Lee. One out, one in:>) TJ


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 Post subject: Re: Derby points
PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 7:22 pm 
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One Liner is a nice colt, but to be honest I wasn't overly convinced an Into Mischief out of a Cherokee Run mare wanted to go much further. He took a month (minus 2 days) to get back on the work tab after his Southwest win, so that wasn't overly encouraging.


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 Post subject: Re: Derby points
PostPosted: Tue Apr 11, 2017 6:56 am 
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Cree wrote:
One Liner is a nice colt, but to be honest I wasn't overly convinced an Into Mischief out of a Cherokee Run mare wanted to go much further. He took a month (minus 2 days) to get back on the work tab after his Southwest win, so that wasn't overly encouraging.

Hi Cree,
Yes I was aware of his lengthy absence from the work tab. Pletcher's outfit trains just 6 miles down the road from me. That's why I had to giggle to myself when I read they didn't like how he worked. He's been battling an undisclosed issue for some time now and that wasn't his 1st bad work since the SW.
There have been only a handful of triple digit beyer performances in the derby preps to date and he was one of them....still trying to figure out why the SW was rated so high, not only beyer but equibase as well?? The other triple digit beyers are J Boys Echo, Mastery, Classic Empire as a 2YO and most recently Irish War Cry. That being said, J Boy's number seemed inflated to me and he showed that when he got beat by Irap last out. Classic Empire is yet to repeat such a good beyer as a 3YO. One Liner, we'll never know now and Irish War Cry reached a top in his last which could give way to a bounce? All this just adds to the confusion we will face come the 1st Saturday in May. TJ
PS...after reading your posts about Union Rags and in checking the 3YO filly and colts highest rated beyer numbers, the Union Rags filly, Paradise Woods beyer is the highest of all, even higher than Mastery's huge win.


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 Post subject: Re: Derby points
PostPosted: Tue Apr 11, 2017 6:59 am 
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Higher than Unique Bella too?

What a strange year of 3-year-olds - Baffert with nothing in the Derby (Mastery was by far the best of the class), which Classic Empire is the real Classic Empire (???), the fillies have some real stand-outs, Pletcher is in line to have 1/5th of the field.... there must be a really good 3-year-old out there waiting for the summer races!


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 Post subject: Re: Derby points
PostPosted: Tue Apr 11, 2017 1:03 pm 
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Cree wrote:
Higher than Unique Bella too?

What a strange year of 3-year-olds - Baffert with nothing in the Derby (Mastery was by far the best of the class), which Classic Empire is the real Classic Empire (???), the fillies have some real stand-outs, Pletcher is in line to have 1/5th of the field.... there must be a really good 3-year-old out there waiting for the summer races!

Hi Cree,
Yes Paradise Woods was higher on the beyer scale than Unique Bella. Though Bella was higher on the Equibase figures? Below is the link to the top beyers to date.
Concerning triple digit beyers, I was referring to the Derby Points race schedule...there have been other 3YO's with triple digit beyers. I believe that other 3YO will fit the category for a "really good 3YO out there waiting for Summer races"....or he might even show up in the Preakness. His name is Timeline, (trained by Chad Brown) and he ran a very impressive race at Aqueduct the other day. I might add the horse he beat at GP by a 1/2 also came back and won his next start at Keeneland, Giuseppe the Great. A Nick Zito trainee who might also fit the bill? Zito is having one of the best seasons I've seen him have in a long time...I have a feeling he has plans for Giuseppe:>) Remember these two names...I think we might hear from them in the future? TJ
http://www1.drf.com/drfLeaderBoard.do?category=beyer


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 Post subject: Re: Derby points
PostPosted: Tue Apr 11, 2017 6:36 pm 
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I will toss the two of them into my Stable Mail.

Looks like Conquest Mo Money may also go in the Arkansas Derby.


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 Post subject: Re: Derby points
PostPosted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 5:04 am 
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Cree wrote:
I will toss the two of them into my Stable Mail.

Looks like Conquest Mo Money may also go in the Arkansas Derby.

Hi Cree,
O'Neill is expected to drop another price into the race, Rockin Rudy. At least this one broke his maiden, albeit in a claiming race. I'm making a joke about it, but I really shouldn't...O'Neill does know how to win the Kentucky Derby and he might have the last laugh:>) Guess I have no right to talk about him since Desormeaux actually has a maiden in this race. In any case, we won't have to wait very long to see the actual field...entries and post positions will be drawn this afternoon. Wonder if any others will come out of the woodwork:>) TJ


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