Pedigree Query

http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/pedigree_power/Female_Famlies_and_the_Kentucky_Derby_123 -

This article indicates that female Family 4 (in particular subfamilies 4-m and 4-r) accounts for the most classic winners. Other female subfamilies that produce a large number of classic winners are 1-x and 23-b. Additional notable female subfamilies are 8-c, 8-f, 8-h and 12-b.

Here are 2017’s Kentucky Derby entrants:

Horse -- Sire -- Broodmare Sire -- Female Family

Hence -- Street Boss -- AP Indy -- 4-m
Classic Empire -- PotN -- Cat Thief -- 4-m
Gunnevera -- Dialed In -- Unbridled -- 16-h
Irish War Cry -- Curlin -- Polish Numbers -- 14-c
Always Dreaming -- Bodemeister -- In Excess -- 4-o
Girvin -- Tale of Ekati -- Malibu Moon -- A1
Gormley -- Malibu Moon -- Bernstein -- 23-b
Irap -- Tiznow -- Storm Cat -- 9-b
Thunder Snow -- Helmet -- Dubai Destination -- 4-k
Practical Joke -- Into Mischief -- Distorted Humor -- A4
J Boys Echo -- Mineshaft -- Menifee -- 16-g
State of Honor -- To Honor and Serve-- Elusive Quality -- 9-f
Tapwrit -- Tapit -- Successful Appeal-- 19
Fast and Accurate-- Hansen -- Green Dancer -- 1-w
McCraken -- Ghostzapper -- Seeking the Gold -- 9-e
Battle of Midway-- Smart Strike -- Concerto -- 10-a
Patch -- Union Rags -- AP Indy -- 8-h
Untrapped -- Trappe Shot -- Giant’s Causeway -- 2-f
Lookin at Lee -- Looking at Lucky -- Langfuhr -- 9-e
Sonneteer -- Midnight Lute -- Half Ours -- 9-b

Recent Kentucky Derby winners are: I’ll Have Another (Flower Alley-Arch 23-b), Orb (Malibu Moon-Unbridled 8-c), California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit-Not for Love A4), American Pharoah (PotN-Yankee Gentleman 14), and Nyquist (Uncle Mo-Forestry 6-f).

2017 KD horses that check all the classic boxes for sire, broodmare sire-line and female family are: Classic Empire, Gormley, Patch (if you give Union Rags credit for winning a classic rather than siring a classic winner), Hence (if you count Cathryn Sophia, by Street Boss, as a classic winner), and Always Dreaming.

So my pedigree play is Classic Empire, Gormley, Patch, Hence and Always Dreaming in a female family Superfecta box.

Good post, thank you for sharing your analysis!
I hope Hence and/or Patch run big.
Casse deserves a Classic winner, too, in my opinion, but I am not sure his champion has matured as much as a couple others in this crop.

An interesting tidbit is family 14c of Pretty Polly fame doesn't have a Kentucky Derby winner. Though her family has won just about every other important/classic race.

Wondering if Irish War Cry will break that streak.

Wasn't there a, "thing" going on for quite a while that no horse had won the Derby that was out of RAN line mare. Believe that Barbaro put that streak to rest?

Warmest regards,
Shergar

Interesting article Altanbarr, thanks for the post. Stirs memories of one of our most beloved posters, Bill from WA of conduit mare fame. Every year he would post evaluate the Derby contenders using his conduit mare work. I will never forget when he called Animal Kingdom his Derby pick. TJ

Family 4 did finish first and fourth. Classic Empire had a rough start. Hope he gives it another try in the Preakness.

Altanbarr wrote:Family 4 did finish first and fourth.

Actually, Always Dreaming and Classic Empire are not from the same tail female family. Their respective branches of family 4 have different mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) types. Fwiw, if all KD winners are classified by mtDNA type (rather than family number), the percentage of winners per type is roughly similar to the percentage of the overall TB population per type.

Thanks for the info. Can I find that data somewhere on line?

Is there an article anywhere about female families and Belmont winners?

I found this on Preakness winners:

http://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Female_Famlies_and_the_Preakness_123#

Here is some more info on Triple Crown race winners but it is not up to date.

https://sites.google.com/site/dynastypedigree/customization

mehile wrote:Is there an article anywhere about female families and Belmont winners?

Hi Mehile,
Here is a partial list of conduit mares and their influence over a number of past classic races, posted by Bill from WA in 2014...he created the conduit mare list. You will have to research the names of some horses mentioned because they were Belmont Stake winners, which Bill didn't mention...like Jaipur (CHEROKEE ROSE-1910), Little Current and Chateaugay (FINE FEATHERS-1904) etc. But it will be fun researching....and if you find any of these conduit mares showing up in this years Belmont Stakes candidates. TJ
viewtopic.php?f=9&t=34773&hilit=conduit+mare

Belmont Stakes Grade-1
12 furlongs on the dirt

1960 Celtic Ash 1w Marchetta
1961 Sherluck 3o Jean’s Folly
1962 Jaipur 8c Cherokee Rose
1963 Chateaugay 16h Fine Feathers
1964 Quadrangle 2o La Danseuse
1965 Hail to All 1o Query
1966 Amberoid 8c Ecatarina
1967 Damascus 8h Biturica
1968 Stage Door Johnny 1L Hot Water Bag
1969 Arts and Letters 1c Chit Chat
1970 High Echelon 2n Donnetta
1971 Pass Catcher 1c Chit Chat
1972 Riva Ridge 1k Reine de Naples
1973 Secretariat 2s Bill and Coo
1974 Little Current 16h Fine Feathers
1975 Avatar 5g Remembrance
1976 Bold Forbes 9f La Venganza
1977 Seattle Slew 13c Frizette
1978 Affirmed 23b Nature
1979 Coastal 9f Affection
1980 Temperence Hill 4f Soligena
1981 Summing 1g Springtime
1982 Conquistador Cielo 8h Ophirdale
1983 Caveat 3n Purity
1984 Swale 1n Popinjay
1985 Creme Fraiche 9f Affection
1986 Danzig Connection 17b Lygie
1987 Bet Twice 9f La Venganza
1988 Risen Star 9c* Americus Girl
1989 Easy Goer 1x Doxa
1990 Go and Go 10a Court Dress
1991 Hansel 2w Madree
1992 A P Indy 3L Rambling Rose
1993 Colonial Affair 13b Epitaph
1994 Tabasco Cat 12d Albilla
1995 Thunder Gulch 11d Lady Daisy Cutter
1996 Editors Note 8c Curiosity
1997 Touch Gold 2n Renaissance
1998 Victory Gallop 12b Offensive
1999 Lemon Drop Kid 3L Rambling Rose
2000 Commendable 16a Plucky Liege
2001 Point Given 2n Rondeau
2002 Sarava 10c Bellamia
2003 Empire Maker 6d Petit Bleu
2004 Birdstone 8f Padilla
2005 Afleet Alex 5g Remembrance
2006 Jazil 8f Torpenhow
2007 Rags to Riches 8f Torpenhow
2008 Da Tara 5i Princess Mary
2009 Summer Bird 3o Black Velvet
2010 Drosselmeyer 10d Consuelo
2011 Ruler on Ice 14a Chaffaway
2012 Union Rags 13b Epitaph
2013 Palice Malice 2s Sweet Marjoram
2014 Tonalist 3L Rambling Rose
2015 American Pharoah 14 Aliena
2016 Creator 2o Creator

All the Belmont winners since 1960 with their conduit mares.

Shergar

Here are 2017’s Belmont Stakes Probables with female families:

Horse--Sire--Broodmare Sire Female Family
Classic Empire--PotN-- Cat Thief --4-m
Irish War Cry--Curlin--Polish Numbers --14-c
Gormley-- Malibu Moon--Bernstein --23-b
J Boys Echo--Mineshaft-- Menifee --16-g
Tapwrit -- Tapit -- Successful Appeal --19
Patch--Union Rags--AP Indy --8-h
Lookin at Lee--Looking at Lucky --Langfuhr --9-e
Senior Investment-Discreetly Mine-Dpty Cmmndr --16g
Twisted Tom—Creative Cause—Thunder Gulch --23b
Meantime—Shackleford—Mt Livermore --5h
Multiplier—The Factor—Trippi --9f
Hollywood Handsome—Tapizar—Forestry --1l
Epicharis—Gold Allure—Carnegie --9e


Looks like the female family pedigree play would involve: Classic Empire, Gormley, Patch, Twisted Tom and Hollywood Handsome, if they all start. Made easier by the fact that there are no starters from families 2 or 3 which account for the most wins in the past 20 years. Maybe toss Hollywood Handsome because Tapizar has neither won nor produced a winner of a classic race.

Families 4-o and 8-g won the first two legs of the Triple Crown.