Pedigree Query

Seems like it took forever to get here this year:>)...below find entries and past performances for the Kentucky Derby. TJ

12th RACE. Post 6:46PM
The 143rd Running of THE KENTUCKY DERBY (Grade I)
PURSE $2,000,000 1 1/4 Mile
FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS, WITH AN ENTRY FEE OF $25,000 EACH AND A
STARTING FEE OF $25,000 EACH.

1 LOOKIN AT LEE (L) E0 Asmussen, S Lanerie, C 126
2 THUNDER SNOW (IRE) (L) E2 bin Suroor, S Soumillon, C 126
3 FAST AND ACCURATE (L) E0 Maker, M Hill, C 126
4 UNTRAPPED (L) E0 Asmussen, S Santana, Jr., R 126
5 ALWAYS DREAMING (L) E0 Pletcher, T Velazquez, J 126
6 STATE OF HONOR (L) E0 Casse, M Lezcano, J 126
7 GIRVIN (L) E0 Sharp, J Smith, M 126
8 HENCE (L) E0 Asmussen, S Geroux, F 126
9 IRAP (L) E0 O'Neill, D Gutierrez, M 126
10 GUNNEVERA (L) E0 Sano, A Castellano, J 126
11 BATTLE OF MIDWAY (L) Hollendorfer, J Prat, F 126
12 SONNETEER (L) E2 Desormeaux, J Desormeaux, K 126
13 J BOYS ECHO (L) E0 Romans, D Saez, L 126
14 CLASSIC EMPIRE (L) E0 Casse, M Leparoux, J 126
15 MCCRAKEN (L) E0 Wilkes, I Hernandez, Jr, B 126
16 TAPWRIT (L) E0 Pletcher, T Ortiz, J 126
17 IRISH WAR CRY (L) E2 Motion, H Maragh, R 126
18 GORMLEY (L) E2 Shirreffs, J Espinoza, V 126
19 PRACTICAL JOKE (L) E0 Brown, C Rosario, J 126
20 PATCH (L) E0 Pletcher, T Gaffalione, T 126
--Also Eligibles--
21 ROYAL MO (L) E2 Shirreffs, J Stevens, G 126
22 MASTER PLAN (L) Pletcher, T Velazquez, J 126
Blinkers Off: Untrapped

Click on State of Honor: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatc ... mmary.html

I have no idea this year... especially with the possibility of rain.
I'm going to stick with Irish War Cry and Hence, with Patch being my sentimental favorite.

Irish War Cry
Classic Empire
J Boys Echo
Tapwrit

The contrarian in me is inclined to include Girvin, too, given all the negative press we have seen with regard to his feet.

Tapwrit for gene pool reasons. In Reality, baby.
Handicapping? Forget it.

I had a glance through these last night and put up my picks with every intention of going through the PPs again and changing my mind.
I am having a really hard time here - after watching the pace meltdown yesterday, I'm leaning toward Gunnevera, but McCraken has trained beautifully and I really think he needed that race last time. I've liked him all spring. Doesn't make sense not to go with him now.
I think the rain could play a role in the outcome. I've stared at these PPs trying to figure who could relish a wet track...and...I am lost. I have to travel all day, so this is my last change. Good luck to all!

McCraken
Gunnevera
Irish War Cry
Practical Joke

Longshot: Battle of Midway

Nothing stands out, there's a possibility that there is a runaway winner, or a photo finish with 5 of them at the end.

Totally confused and tired of looking at the pp's. I still want to see how the track is playing today...yesterday it carried inside speed pretty good until the Oaks when we saw the proverbial "pace makes the race" play out when the two top contenders went head to head and burnt each other out setting up for a rush from the back of the pack. That being said, I will shoot out some picks on the basis of the track playing bias free today....which I doubt:>) Currently the track is sloppy and the turf is good with more rain expected later?

Always Dreaming...breaks from the 5 post, has tactical speed similar to the last winner from the 5 post...California Chrome.
McCraken...His trainer won 2 races yesterday at CD. He breaks from the 15 post and has a similar running style to Orb who broke from the 15. This post has been live recently with American Pharoah also winning from that post position.
Tapwrit...his last was too bad to be true. Training well, could reverse recent form.
Gunnevera...should appreciate the added distance, but has to get a perfect trip to get up.
A couple long shot chances....Sonneteer and State of Honor.

I am getting up for this race, and I do think the track condition will be sloppy, and slop usually is kind to pace runners but as TJ noted, the Oaks was won from last to first fashion. I hate to back a lightly tested horse, however, if Always Dreaming has a good trip from the 5 hole I believe he will run them off their feet. Both Classic Empire and McCrakken have stakes wins over the track and tend to stalk and close, cannot be totally dismissed, in my opinion, so I will try to hit the all stakes pick 4, races 9, 10, 11 and 12. The ticket looks like this, 2,4,10 with 5,12 with 8,12 with 5,14,15, for a total cost of $36.00 for a $1.00 wager or $18.00 for s $.50 wager.

Good luck to all, and may they all have a safe trip.

On big days like today...trainers and riders of Derby runners try to win a race or two before they get in the gate for the Derby. Right off the bat Joe Sharp (Girvin's trainer) won the first....he had his Derby rider listed to ride....but for some reason Smith didn't make the call. Instead he gave Brian Hernandez Jr. a leg up for the win. Brian as we know is the rider of McCraken. I've seen these trends on Derby day prove to be a predictor of things to come...then again, I just might be too far gone (after all these years of losing money) and just continue to grasp at straws:>) TJ

Well.... that's a good sign...

Cree wrote:Well.... that's a good sign...

Hi Cree,
Right back in the 2nd with Motion (Irish War Cry) winning and JL Ortiz (Tapwrit) on board. TJ

Tapwrit, Always Dreaming, Thunder Snow and Irap are my choices.

My annual "NO CHANCE" list. Tapwrit, Untrapped, Irap, Sonetteer. I'll be surprised if the luke warm favorite, Always Dreaming wins. I think the race may unfold like the Oaks yesterday and a horse with 10-1 odds or longer wins.

jagger wrote:My annual "NO CHANCE" list. Tapwrit, Untrapped, Irap, Sonetteer. I'll be surprised if the luke warm favorite, Always Dreaming wins. I think the race may unfold like the Oaks yesterday and a horse with 10-1 odds or longer wins.

Hi Jagger,
I'll be surprised no matter who wins:>) So who are you rooting for? TJ

Placed my final bets, went with Irish War Cry and Hence, and tossed in Girvin and Gormley, as I can't count out Mike Smith and Victor Espinoza.

I think there are other great contenders like McCraken, Always Dreaming, etc... but as it's the Derby, you just never know! Good luck, everyone! Wishing horses and riders a safe trip!

Gunnevera, Classic Empire

The soft surface may help the guy with the foot issues...

jm