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 Post subject: Justify
PostPosted: Tue Feb 20, 2018 10:12 am 
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This 3YO colt (Justify) sold as a yearling for 1/2 a million dollars. He broke his maiden in his first outing Sunday at Santa Anita (for Baffert) receiving a beyer speed figure of 104. Though the competition wasn't much, he won with complete authority. Justify is a serious race horse, yet his late debut could indicate possible physical issues which might interfere with his training. Especially since he must be put to a rigorous training/racing program if Baffert plans to get this Triple Crown nominee ready for the Derby. He reminds me a bit of Arrogate, whose physical issues kept him from appearing in a TC race, but Justify...who beat Arrogate to the races by almost two months, could possibly make it in time to give it a try. Should be interesting to see where he goes next? TJ


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 Post subject: Re: Justify
PostPosted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 7:44 am 
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TJ

This horse may just have needed time. His works were fast and steady with only one break of 30 days during which he shipped from KY to CA. He won as he pleased in 1:21 and change and could be something special. He has a very nice pedigree with the full sisters, Yarn, dam of Tale of the Cat and Preach, dam of Pulpit 4X4. If Baffert ships to Oaklawn with him it would indicate to me that he wants to take the path of least resistance.

DDT


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 Post subject: Re: Justify
PostPosted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:31 am 
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DDT wrote:
TJ

This horse may just have needed time. His works were fast and steady with only one break of 30 days during which he shipped from KY to CA. He won as he pleased in 1:21 and change and could be something special. He has a very nice pedigree with the full sisters, Yarn, dam of Tale of the Cat and Preach, dam of Pulpit 4X4. If Baffert ships to Oaklawn with him it would indicate to me that he wants to take the path of least resistance.

DDT

Hi DDT,
Yes, I took note of the Rasmussen Factor to Narrate through full siblings Preach and Yarn...pretty potent Claiborne stock! I also agree with you, if Baffert decides to go after the TC with Justify, the best route is via Oaklawn Park's Rebel and Arkansas Derby. That would be the same route he took with American Pharoah and time-wise looks like the best option. The major setback for Justify (other than staying healthy) would be to overcome the curse of Apollo. Though in my opinion, Baffert would be the one who could break that spell:>) The last one Baffert brought to the Derby (without a race as a 2YO) was Bodemeister and he had the misfortune of meeting I'll Have Another. Yet he ran very well in both the Derby and Preakness finishing 2nd. Looking forward to see where this exciting prospect shows up next. TJ


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 Post subject: Re: Justify
PostPosted: Thu Feb 22, 2018 8:35 pm 
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Potential galore and the pedigree to do big things. Give him a shot against something lesser (Turfway?) and maybe try the Blue Grass? If anything disappoints, go the Arrogate route.

jm

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 Post subject: Re: Justify
PostPosted: Fri Feb 23, 2018 8:45 am 
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Joltman wrote:
Potential galore and the pedigree to do big things. Give him a shot against something lesser (Turfway?) and maybe try the Blue Grass? If anything disappoints, go the Arrogate route.

jm

Hi Jolt,
I recently read Baffert could send Justify to the Sunland Derby (3/25), a race he's won twice in it's last three running's. He has two other prospects for the San Felipe (3/10) or Rebel (3/17) who have been pointing in that direction before Justify came on the scene. Baffert doesn't want these 3 to meet yet...so as not to compromise their ability to earn Derby points. These other two Baffert contenders are McKinzie and Solomini. TJ


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 Post subject: Re: Justify
PostPosted: Sat Mar 03, 2018 5:40 pm 
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That's the route, and that race has been amazingly formfull for the derby horses coming out of it.

jm

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 Post subject: Re: Justify
PostPosted: Mon Mar 05, 2018 5:23 pm 
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I think the Sunland Derby would be an excellent choice for Justify. Could be a real confidence builder.


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 Post subject: Re: Justify
PostPosted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 9:59 pm 
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I think Justify is the real deal, and a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender despite his current lack of experience.
Baffert usually wins his MSW at 6 furlongs. This one's win was spectacular at 7f. I plan to bet him in the futures pool 3, ml at 15-1 but I expect he will finalize at less than 10-1. His winning debut win, running line/style and Beyer, was extraordinary.


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 Post subject: Re: Justify
PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 8:50 pm 
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Is there a little bit concern that a horse that has run once in his 3-year-old year isn't physically ready to run in such a gruelling series/race as the Derby and the lead-up races. I feel like they should consider "why rush him???".


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 Post subject: Re: Justify
PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:24 pm 
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Another win for Justify! 5th race at Santa Anita an allowance. Does anyone know where to find the replay, I missed the race?


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 Post subject: Re: Justify
PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:36 pm 
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mehile wrote:
Another win for Justify! 5th race at Santa Anita an allowance. Does anyone know where to find the replay, I missed the race?

Hi Mehile,
Wow....guess Baffert changed his plans with him. It was an eye popping race, he broke a step slow and took the lead with a flourish, winning in hand by 6 1/2 lengths while going the mile in 1:35.73. I'll see if I can find the race and I'll post it here. TJ


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 Post subject: Re: Justify
PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:46 pm 
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Here's the video of Justify's win today. Two turns was not a problem:>) Baffert called an audible and it might just work out well....he got his 2 turn experience and now he can probably run back in the SA or Arkansas Derby. TJ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cKTPYbpHe4


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 Post subject: Re: Justify
PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 4:11 pm 
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TJ wrote:
Hi Mehile,
Wow....guess Baffert changed his plans with him. It was an eye popping race, he broke a step slow and took the lead with a flourish, winning in hand by 6 1/2 lengths while going the mile in 1:35.73. I'll see if I can find the race and I'll post it here. TJ


I wasn't expecting him to run till next week. Thanks for the replay! I know he hasn't had truly challenging competition yet but he really has been impressive so far. I was selfishly hoping he'd be pointed to the blue grass so I could watch him run in person but I'd bet you're right and he stays for the SA Derby.


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 Post subject: Re: Justify
PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:17 pm 
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mehile wrote:
TJ wrote:
Hi Mehile,
Wow....guess Baffert changed his plans with him. It was an eye popping race, he broke a step slow and took the lead with a flourish, winning in hand by 6 1/2 lengths while going the mile in 1:35.73. I'll see if I can find the race and I'll post it here. TJ


I wasn't expecting him to run till next week. Thanks for the replay! I know he hasn't had truly challenging competition yet but he really has been impressive so far. I was selfishly hoping he'd be pointed to the blue grass so I could watch him run in person but I'd bet you're right and he stays for the SA Derby.

Hi Mehile,
It's hard to figure what Baffert is thinking...this move with Justify seemed to be unexpected. It would make sense to stay home and run him in the SA Derby, but then he'd have to find another spot for McKinzie.
It could have been they had to run him...sometimes a horse like this gets to feeling too good and they had to get a race into him to take him down a bit. It's also possible it was a paid workout for the Sunland Derby in two weeks? I checked nominations and found Justify is nominated to the Sunland Derby (3/25)...(which was his objective before this surprise entry), The Blue Grass (4/7) and The Santa Anita Derby (4/7). The nominations for the Arkansas Derby (4/14) are not out yet (but I'm sure he'll be nominated), since Baffert did use this race for American Pharoah and Bodiemeister. If Baffert needs an extra week with Justify, this would be his best option? TJ


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 Post subject: Re: Justify
PostPosted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:54 pm 
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50 points in theory could be enough to get him onto the gate but that's saying he has to win the Sunland. It seems to me it would make more sense to wait for one of the higher point races but I'm no trainer and like you said Baffert has to worry about setting his charges against each other.


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