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PostPosted: Sun Mar 25, 2018 4:48 am 
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Here's the current top 25 Derby eligible's. A couple decent race horses have yet to gain their Derby access pass like Justify and Audible, but we have 8 preps remaining and 6 worth 100-40-20-10 across the board....including the UAE Derby in Dubai (3/31). Today's Sunland Derby is worth 50-20-10-5 and the final shot is the Lexington (4/14), a wildcard prep worth just 20-8-4-2 points across the board for those needing a bit more to make the cut. With all these points still up for grabs over the next 3 weeks, this list will change so stay tuned:>) TJ

1. Noble Indy.. Todd Pletcher 110
2. Bolt d'Oro.. Mick Ruis 64
3. Enticed.. Kiaran McLaughlin 63
4. Bravazo.. D. Wayne Lukas 54
5. Promises Fulfilled.. Dale Romans 52
6. Magnum Moon.. Todd Pletcher 50
7. Quip.. Rodolphe Brisset 50
8. Lone Sailor.. Tom Amoss 42
9. McKinzie.. Bob Baffert 40
10. Good Magic.. Chad Brown 34
11. Solomini.. Bob Baffert 34
12. My Boy Jack.. Keith Desormeaux 32
13. Flameaway.. Mark Casse 30....was not nominated, but will supplement
14. Firenze Fire.. Jason Servis 29
15. Free Drop Billy.. Dale Romans 24
16. Snapper Sinclair.. Steven Asmussen 22
17. Combatant.. Steven Asmussen 22
** Blended Citizen.. Doug O'Neill 22...Was not nominated and doesn't plan to supplement
18. Strike Power.. Mark Hennig 20
19. Old Time Revival.. Kenneth Decker 20
20. Instilled Regard.. Jerry Hollendorfer 19
21. Catholic Boy.. Jonathan Thomas 14
22. Avery Island.. Kiaran McLaughlin 14
23. Givemeaminit.. Dallas Stewart 12
24. Greyvitos.. Adam Kitchingman 10
25. Audible.. Todd Pletcher 10


Last edited by TJ on Tue Apr 17, 2018 6:56 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 02, 2018 4:34 am 
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Current Kentucky Derby Standings. Of this list Catholic Boy and Blended Citizen will not run. McKinzie's status is uncertain as is Rayya. TJ

1. Audible...........Todd Pletcher 110 $803,520
2. Noble Indy.......Todd Pletcher 110 $640,000
3. Mendelssohn.....Aidan O'Brien 100 $1,947,299
4. Bolt d'Oro........Mick Ruis 64 $780,000
5. Enticed...........Kiaran McLaughlin 63 $360,880
6. Bravazo..........D. Wayne Lukas 54 $359,913
7. Promises Fulfilled..Dale Romans 52 $266,480
8. Magnum Moon...Todd Pletcher 50 $540,000
9. Runaway Ghost..Todd Fincher 50 $520,310
10. Quip...........Rodolphe Brisset 50 $212,000
11. Lone Sailor....Tom Amoss 42 $273,347
12. Rayya..........Doug Watson 40 $600,000
13. McKinzie.......Bob Baffert 40 $320,000
14. Hofburg........Bill Mott 40 $192,000
15. Good Magic....Chad Brown 34 $1,238,400
16. Solomini.......Bob Baffert 34 $616,000
17. My Boy Jack..Keith Desormeaux 32 $502,000
18. Flameaway....Mark Casse 30 $472,260
19. Firenze Fire...Jason Servis 29 $582,500
20. Free Drop Billy...Dale Romans 24 $497,200
21. Catholic Boy...Jonathan Thomas 24 $378,000
22. Snapper Sinclair..Steven Asmussen 22 $321,810
23. Combatant....Steven Asmussen 22 $300,000
24. Blended Citizen..Doug O'Neill 22 $129,644
25. Reride....Steven Asmussen 20 $298,000


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:54 pm 
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Very deep crop of 3 year olds.

Still weeding through pedigrees of them.

Audible looked great in winning the Fla. Derby, but not so sure about his ability to get 10f.

When watching the Gotham Stakes live, I wasn't all that impressed with Enticed. On watching replay a few times, I'm think i was a little harsh in my initial judgement. Looking forward to seeing how he runs in the Wood.

Not sure what Quip beat in the Tampa Bay Derby, but another I am thinking could relish 10f. Another that I am looking forward to watching in the Blue Grass.

Santa Anita Derby is going to be a letdown. Really wanted to see McKinzie and Bolt d' Oro go at it again.

Mendelssohn=Wow! Can't wait to see him in the flesh on the 1st Saturday of May. (Yes, I'm going to the Derby again)

Heck of a lot more horses I'm taking a close look at. Working on the conduit mare analysis on them.

Regards,
Shergar


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:18 pm 
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Hi Shergar,
I agree...one heck of a 3YO crop! Have a good time in Kentucky...I'll be posting the entries and the pp's for the Blue Grass shortly. TJ


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 07, 2018 9:18 pm 
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With two more Derby point races left, The Arkansas Derby (100-40-20-10) and The Lexington over polytrack (20-8-4-2) these races will be very important to horses like Solomini, My Boy Jack, Reride and Combatant if they want a spot in the Derby. TJ

1. Good Magic... Chad Brown 134 $1,838,400
2. Audible... Todd Pletcher 110 $803,520
3. Noble Indy... Todd Pletcher 110 $640,000
4. Vino Rosso... Todd Pletcher 107 $572,500
5. Bolt d'Oro... Mick Ruis 104 $980,000
6. Enticed... Kiaran McLaughlin 103 $545,880
7. Mendelssohn... Aidan O'Brien 100 $1,947,299
8. Justify... Bob Baffert 100 $600,000
9. Flameaway... Mark Casse 70 $672,260
10. Bravazo... D. Wayne Lukas 54 $359,913
11. Promises Fulfilled... Dale Romans 52 $266,480
12. Magnum Moon... Todd Pletcher 50 $540,000
13. Runaway Ghost... Todd Fincher 50 $520,310............INJURED, out of Derby
14. Quip... Rodolphe Brisset 50 $212,000
15. Free Drop Billy... Dale Romans 44 $597,200
16. Lone Sailor... Tom Amoss 42 $273,347
17. Hofburg... Bill Mott 40 $192,000
18. Firenze Fire... Jason Servis 39 $647,500
19. Solomini... Bob Baffert 34 $616,000
20. My Boy Jack... Keith Desormeaux 32 $502,000

21. Instilled Regard... Jerry Hollendorfer 29 $196,000
22. Snapper Sinclair... Steven Asmussen 22 $321,810
23. Combatant... Steven Asmussen 22 $300,000
24. Blended Citizen... Doug O'Neill 22 $159,644
25. Reride... Steven Asmussen 20 $298,000


Last edited by TJ on Sat Apr 14, 2018 5:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Sun Apr 08, 2018 2:03 am 
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The Lexington is not run on polytrack, Keeneland changed to dirt a few years back. I also read in some other place that Hofburg is not being considered for the Derby.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 08, 2018 4:13 am 
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Georgerz wrote:
The Lexington is not run on polytrack, Keeneland changed to dirt a few years back. I also read in some other place that Hofburg is not being considered for the Derby.

Hi George,
Thanks for the correction...I played Keeneland all day yesterday and I knew they were racing on dirt which went from muddy and sealed in the 1st race to good in the 2nd, then turned fast the rest of the day. In my defense I plead a major senior moment hiccup:>)
I didn't hear that about Hofburg? It's too bad if he doesn't enter the Derby...but Mott usually makes the best call for his stock and he's always played it conservatively. Maybe he feels a maiden winner, to a GR I placing, into the Derby isn't worth the risk right now with a full season ahead of him? TJ


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 08, 2018 9:09 am 
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Geez. Pletcher appears loaded. 3 of the top 5 spots, and Magnum Moon (who I like the most of his colts) races next week.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 14, 2018 5:21 pm 
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Runaway Ghost will miss the Derby....he worked this morning and cooled out sore, trainer said it looks like a hairline fracture of his shin. The good news is no surgery will be needed, just time. Though one horses misfortune brings fortune to another....Combatant who was 21 on the list now will be #20. TJ


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 14, 2018 6:34 pm 
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Here's the final Derby Points List, Gronkowski has earned a berth via the European Road to the Kentucky Derby....if he accepts the challenge he is automatically entered in the Derby. Which would knock Combatant out, who got in when Runaway Ghost was withdrawn. TJ

1. Magnum Moon...Todd Pletcher 150 $1,140,000
2. Good Magic...Chad Brown 134 $1,838,400
3. Audible...Todd Pletcher 110 $803,520
4. Noble Indy...Todd Pletcher 110 $640,000
5. Vino Rosso...Todd Pletcher 107 $572,500
6. Bolt d'Oro...Mick Ruis 104 $980,000
7. Enticed...Kiaran McLaughlin 103 $545,880
8. Mendelssohn...Aidan O'Brien 100 $1,947,299
9. Justify...Bob Baffert 100 $600,000
10. Quip...Rodolphe Brisset 90 $412,000
11. Flameaway...Mark Casse 70 $672,260
12. Solomini...Bob Baffert 54 $716,000
13. Bravazo...D. Wayne Lukas 54 $359,913
14. My Boy Jack...Keith Desormeaux 52 $622,000
15. Promises Fulfilled...Dale Romans 52 $266,480
16. Free Drop Billy...Dale Romans 44 $597,200
17. Lone Sailor...Tom Amoss 42 $273,347
18. Hofburg...Bill Mott 40 $192,000
19. Firenze Fire...Jason Servis 39 $647,500
20. Combatant...Steven Asmussen 32 $350,000

The Bubble crew:
21. Snapper Sinclair...Steven Asmussen 22 $321,810
22. Reride...Steven Asmussen 20 $298,000
23. Dream Baby Dream...Steven Asmussen 20 $181,000
24. Restoring Hope...Bob Baffert 20 $100,000
25. Sporting Chance...D. Wayne Lukas 12 $337,000
26. Greyvitos...Adam Kitchingman 12 $310,000
27. Givemeaminit...Dallas Stewart 12 $196,000
28. Pony Up...Todd Pletcher 12 $101,580


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:20 pm 
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Gronkowski is in too, which bumps Combatant.

Pletcher has 4 in the top 5.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2018 5:32 am 
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Cree wrote:
Gronkowski is in too, which bumps Combatant.

Pletcher has 4 in the top 5.

Hi Cree,
Thanks for that info. Both Euro's coming here to run in the Derby were bred in Kentucky. Pletcher usually has quite a few in the Derby lineup, but there's little doubt this is the strongest group he's ever had heading into the Derby with Magnum Moon, Audible, Noble Indy and Vino Rosso. I know you aren't a fan of WinStar, but I have to be impressed with the strong group they have heading in. Some are not aware of the connection between Pletcher and WinStar's President and CEO of racing operations Elliot Walden, who was a trainer years ago and won the Belmont Stakes with Victory Gallop. He is very active in mapping out the WinStar 3YO's horses in training with Pletcher (this season Noble Indy and Audible in Pletchers care and Justify and Quip in the care of Baffert and Brisset respectively) and is most interested in acquiring classic race winners that will make top quality sires...hence he moves them along on the track then right into the WinStar breeding shed.
In looking at the current field (and barring injury) I see 2 or 3 that might be better off going in another direction. So Combatant may still get his shot, if Asmussen decides he's the one he wants to send to Kentucky. Team Asmussen actually has options, since all 4 horses on the bubble are trained by Asmussen...Combatant, Snapper Sinclair, Reride and Dream Baby Dream. Still no word on Hofburg and it's 15 days today since his last race, so he should be ready to work shortly and if Mott likes what he sees he will most likely make his final decision. TJ


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2018 10:53 am 
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Sounds like Hofburg is pointing to the Derby!
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing ... ucky-derby


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2018 1:27 pm 
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Cree wrote:
Sounds like Hofburg is pointing to the Derby!
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing ... ucky-derby

Hi Cree,
That's good news...just adds to the outstanding field of runners assembling this year in the Kentucky Derby. TJ


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 15, 2018 1:57 pm 
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Really enjoy the analysis and comments that are in the handicapping session. You guys provide great insight. What a talented group for the Derby this year...I will be watching this one with more excitement than usual.

I breed one or two mares a year, always aiming for classic distance types...so the pedigrees are fascinating to me. This many scat daddys and curlins...wow. Leslie Lady as a paternal grand-dam of one entry and the dam of another. Very influential mare.


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