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PostPosted: Wed Apr 04, 2018 3:01 pm 
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I don't know about the rest of you...but I can't wait to see Bolt d'Oro and Justify face off, sure hope it isn't a let down:>) For some reason the past performances are not available yet. TJ

9th Race. Santa Anita Derby (Grade I)
Purse $1,000,000 Guaranteed One Mile And One Eighth FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS.

1 INSTILLED REGARD (L) '15 C 124 Rosario, J OXO Equine LLC Jerry Hollendorfer
2 ORBIT RAIN (L) '15 R 124 Blanc, B Ruis Racing LLC Mick Ruis
3 BOLT D'ORO (L) '15 C 124 Castellano, J Ruis Racing LLC Mick Ruis
4 JIMMY CHILA (L) '15 C 124 Gutierrez, M Reddam Racing, LLC Doug O'Neill
5 PEPE TONO(S) (L) '15 C 124 Espinoza, V Juan Garcia Victor Garcia
6 JUSTIFY (L) '15 C 124 Smith, M China Horse Club, Starlight Rcng or HoP Ptnrs LLC, et al Bob Baffert
7 CORE BELIEFS (L) '15 C 124 Baze, T Gary S. Broad Peter Eurton
(S) Denotes Supplementary Nominations.

Click on Justify: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatc ... ummary.htm


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 05, 2018 8:08 pm 
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I’m hoping Justify wins and I get better odds on Bolt for the Derby!


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 06, 2018 1:36 pm 
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Orbit Rain may scratch out of the SA Derby?

Justify
Bolt d'Oro
Instilled Regard
Pepe Tono


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 06, 2018 10:16 pm 
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Bolt d'Oro
Instilled Regard
Justify
Core Beliefs


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 07, 2018 4:26 pm 
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Here's the finish of the Santa Anita Derby:
Justify...Utterly amazing! If he stays sound for Baffert, say goodbye to the curse of Apollo and Bob gets another TC winner.
Bolt d'Oro...tried his best, to no avail. But what a super horse he is!
Core Beliefs
Instilled Regard


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 07, 2018 4:33 pm 
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Wow. Wow. Renewed respect for Scat Daddy. Makes me see his physique with new eyes.
Too bad he's gone.

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PostPosted: Sat Apr 07, 2018 5:42 pm 
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Ok, you guys. Playing devil's advocate here:
He was out there on his own - and yes, I know he has a high cruising speed - but... let's not hand him the TC yet.
He doesn't look like he has had much experience with anyone running with him/challenging him up there, and there are some speedy types this year that could go with him (at least part of the way, at their own risk). I'd also think (from the videos I have seen) he can get really rank. He's really tough to keep under control.
He also needs a good, clean break - something he may not get with a bad post and/or 19 other colts breaking at the same time.

So, although he ran pretty impressively, I am yet to award him the big one. He's going to have to earn it every step of the way.

I thought Bolt ran a decent race chasing after a lone speed horse out there up front. He also may have bounced off his tough race last time.
I also thought Good Magic looked good in his win. And Pletcher has some pretty nice colts too.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 07, 2018 5:59 pm 
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yes, wise cautions, but I'm not necessarily saying he'll get Derby; just super impressed with maiden to allowance to g1.
Just heard rumour Bolt D'Oro was hurt. Anyone know anything?

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PostPosted: Sat Apr 07, 2018 6:35 pm 
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Toccet02 wrote:
yes, wise cautions, but I'm not necessarily saying he'll get Derby; just super impressed with maiden to allowance to g1.
Just heard rumour Bolt D'Oro was hurt. Anyone know anything?

Hi Toccet,
Bolt d'Oro grabbed a quarter...not serious, he'll be fine. TJ


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 07, 2018 8:26 pm 
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Cree wrote:
Ok, you guys. Playing devil's advocate here:
He was out there on his own - and yes, I know he has a high cruising speed - but... let's not hand him the TC yet.
He doesn't look like he has had much experience with anyone running with him/challenging him up there, and there are some speedy types this year that could go with him (at least part of the way, at their own risk). I'd also think (from the videos I have seen) he can get really rank. He's really tough to keep under control.
He also needs a good, clean break - something he may not get with a bad post and/or 19 other colts breaking at the same time.

So, although he ran pretty impressively, I am yet to award him the big one. He's going to have to earn it every step of the way.

I thought Bolt ran a decent race chasing after a lone speed horse out there up front. He also may have bounced off his tough race last time.
I also thought Good Magic looked good in his win. And Pletcher has some pretty nice colts too.

Hi Cree,
Justify is a very special horse. I've been watching his works and he does everything he's asked to do without any effort at all. His stride is as long as any of the great horses I've seen through the years. Today he went a mile and an eighth for the first time in his 3rd start against the best 3YO on the west coast and it didn't phase him. He has tons of raw talent and he doesn't even know what he's doing out there....he's so green the cows il' eat him:>) He drifted in and out like the big inexperienced sucker that he is and if you think about it, less than 2 months ago no one even knew his name! Yet when Bolt d'Oro closed the gap and looked like he wanted to run over the top of him, Justify had another gear inside the 1/8th pole and continued to galloped out pretty strong past the finish line....so getting a mile and a quarter won't be an issue. I agree he will meet some pretty nice horses in Kentucky, I've been singing the praises of this 3YO crop for a while now...but as good as this crop is, IMHO I don't see any other 3YO in America as good as him. I did say in America:>)...I'm very interested in seeing Mendelssohn train when he gets here. Keep in mind that WinStar farm has 4 top notch contenders for this years Derby in Justify, Audible, Noble Indy and Quip (who we get to watch next weekend). All 4 have good speed, but I doubt they will mix it up. Justify is in the enviable position in that his Derby competition will be darned if they go with him and darned if they don't. That being said...he does have 2 major knocks, or I should say curses. The curse of Apollo and the curse of the Storm Cat sire line which has never won a Kentucky Derby. So for me to say he will win the TC I gotta be crazy...so I'll sign off Crazy TJ:>) PS...can't wait to see Quip and Magnum Moon hook up in the Arkansas Derby.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 08, 2018 9:06 am 
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Don’t get me wrong, he looked pretty special out there. But we all know a lot can happen leading up to the Derby, and a lot can happen in a race of 20. I wouldn’t consider him battle-tested, although maybe he’s just so good, nobody will test him??? Will inexperience be a concern? Especially if he doesn’t break clean and get an easy lead.

Interesting to read in the other thread that Hofburg won’t go to the Derby - he’s also got 3 starts, but didn’t win the ‘big’ one. Baffert appears to be full-steam ahead with Justify, while Mott is a lot more patient. I wonder if Mott would be sending Hofburg to the Derby if he had won?

I also wonder if Justify is being pushed a bit too hard to get to the Derby? It seems a big ask to do what he’s doing. And... one final concern - Winstar is part owner of Justify - can we take bets on when he is retired?

I agree this looks like a very good crop though.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 08, 2018 11:27 am 
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Cree wrote:
Don’t get me wrong, he looked pretty special out there. But we all know a lot can happen leading up to the Derby, and a lot can happen in a race of 20. I wouldn’t consider him battle-tested, although maybe he’s just so good, nobody will test him??? Will inexperience be a concern? Especially if he doesn’t break clean and get an easy lead.

Interesting to read in the other thread that Hofburg won’t go to the Derby - he’s also got 3 starts, but didn’t win the ‘big’ one. Baffert appears to be full-steam ahead with Justify, while Mott is a lot more patient. I wonder if Mott would be sending Hofburg to the Derby if he had won?

I also wonder if Justify is being pushed a bit too hard to get to the Derby? It seems a big ask to do what he’s doing. And... one final concern - Winstar is part owner of Justify - can we take bets on when he is retired?

I agree this looks like a very good crop though.

Hi Cree,
Mott has always been conservative...but one thing he'd like to do is win a Derby. I mentioned before that Hofburg reminds me of Motts Belmont and Classic winner Drosselmeyer...so maybe he's thinking along those lines? I haven't been able to find the article about Mott not going to Kentucky...if you notice it please post it.
Under normal circumstances, I'd never expect a horse like Justify to pull this off with so many strikes against him. But, although Baffert can be controversial, he has a lot of respect for his horses. He's also one of the few that can train a horse into a GR I Stake and get the job done. If he wasn't 100% sure of what he has, he'd never risk pushing this horse just to win the Derby...the TC, maybe:>) I truly believe he has that in mind. Currently Justify is the 5/2 favorite in the final Derby pool. The other Scat Daddy, Mendelssohn is 9/2, Audible's at 7-1, Bolt d'Oro and Good Magic are both 10-1 and Magnum Moon currently sits at 12-1...oh and just in case...I know we both appreciate Flameaway, another Scat Daddy colt and he's 40-1. TJ


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 09, 2018 11:13 am 
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I'm with Cree. Justify has some serious ??? in my mind. One thing you can't be is green in the KyD. Mind needs to be developed to not schyz out and throw it away if challenged early (on front), banged, or needing to take back in a speed duel Raw talent for sure - since he was working in Jan. His 'cantor out' was not impressive to my eye, where he was obviously taken up, but could have been a lot more impressive.

Could it be that the Storm Cat curse is because the SCs often had a streak of crazy as young horses? A mile and a quarter requires a horse to settle But the talent is there.

jm

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 09, 2018 12:52 pm 
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Joltman wrote:
I'm with Cree. Justify has some serious ??? in my mind. One thing you can't be is green in the KyD. Mind needs to be developed to not schyz out and throw it away if challenged early (on front), banged, or needing to take back in a speed duel Raw talent for sure - since he was working in Jan. His 'cantor out' was not impressive to my eye, where he was obviously taken up, but could have been a lot more impressive.

Could it be that the Storm Cat curse is because the SCs often had a streak of crazy as young horses? A mile and a quarter requires a horse to settle But the talent is there.

jm

Hi Jolt.
The good news is we have just 26 days left to get all these questions answered. From a handicapping perspective, Justify has everything against him...but from what I've seen of him, the way he trains in the AM, the length of his stride and his sheer will to win...I think Team Baffert will get the job done. The better news is, I probably won't bet the Derby because taking Justify at short odds...and with the the tarot cards stacked against him, it's just bad business:>) TJ


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2018 5:58 pm 
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Joltman - we aren't crazy.... Steve Haskin pretty much said the same thing about Justify in this week's Derby Dozen: http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky ... -farm.aspx

I do like that he put Vino Rosso on top, because somewhere in my brain, I thought he ran a pretty darn good Wood Memorial - I was just too busy pouting because I didn't have him on top!


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