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PostPosted: Mon Apr 30, 2018 7:06 pm 
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There is an interesting article on the subject in the Thoroughbredracing.com:

https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/arti ... er-if-all/

I'd say same applies for the Oaks.


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PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2018 7:19 am 
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Georgerz wrote:
There is an interesting article on the subject in the Thoroughbredracing.com:

https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/arti ... er-if-all/

I'd say same applies for the Oaks.

Hi George,
It's obvious the authors are statistical analysts and not horsemen/women. Any jockey will tell you post position is a most important part of the winning Derby equation. Rail horses (without speed) always find themselves in a tight spot while crossing the gap to the main track (sometime ducking in at that point) while outside horses are angling in toward the rail putting the squeeze on the inner posted horses. Remember Jazil in 2006? Even rail horses with speed will be forced to show more speed early then they normally would in order to get position as the outside flight tries to cross over...the 1 post position could very well compromise a horses chances. Derby stats show the last winner from post 1 was Ferdinand in 1986. Outside posts, especially from the 6 horse auxiliary gate are preferred...except post 17 which has never won a Derby since the use of the mechanical starting gate. It seems losing ground breaking from the outside posts are advantageous to ground saving inner posts which are most desirable in normal size fields around 2 turns....but not in a field of 20 starters with the use of an auxiliary gate. Of course this is speculative since we don't know the quality of the horses that draw a particular post, though those horses who are quality contenders will get a distinct advantage or disadvantage according to the post they draw. Not to mention working out a trip when getting a less than favorable post...once again, the jockeys are very important making instant decisions in real time during the running of the race...that's why it's the most exciting 2 minutes in sports:>) I give extra points to contenders I like who draw post 5, 8, 10, 15, 16, 19 or 20. TJ


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