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PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2018 2:02 pm 
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Well it's finally here...CD posted the Saturday overnight early so here's the field and PP's for the 2018 Derby. Also a super supporting card, see the link to all the Saturday entries on Derby Day below. TJ

12th RACE. Post 6:50PM
The 144th Running of THE KENTUCKY DERBY (Grade I)
PURSE $2,000,000 1 1/4 Mile
FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS, WITH AN ENTRY FEE OF $25,000 EACH AND A STARTING FEE OF $25,000 EACH.
1 FIRENZE FIRE (L) '15 C 126 Lopez, P Mr. Amore Stable Servis, J
2 FREE DROP BILLY (L) '15 C 126 Albarado, R Albaugh Family Stables LLC Romans, D
3 PROMISES FULFILLED (L) '15 C 126 Lanerie, C Baron, R Romans, D
4 FLAMEAWAY (L) '15 C 126 Lezcano, J Oxley, J Casse, M
5 AUDIBLE (L) '15 C 126 Castellano, J WinStar Farm, LLC, China Horse Club, Starlight Racing
and Head of Plains Partners, LLCPletcher, T
6 GOOD MAGIC (L) '15 C 126 Ortiz, J e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables
LLCBrown, C
7 JUSTIFY (L) '15 C 126 Smith, M WinStar Farm, LLC, China Horse Club, Starlight Racing
and Head of Plains Partners, LLCBaffert, B
8 LONE SAILOR (L) '15 C 126 Graham, J G M B Racing Amoss, T
9 HOFBURG (L) '15 C 126 Ortiz, Jr., I Juddmonte Farms, Inc. Mott, W
10 MY BOY JACK (L) '15 C 126 Desormeaux, K Don't Tell My Wife Stables, Monomoy Stables, LLC and
West Point ThoroughbredsDesormeaux, J
11 BOLT D'ORO (L) '15 C 126 Espinoza, V Ruis Racing LLC Ruis, M
12 ENTICED (L) '15 C 126 Alvarado, J Godolphin, LLC, Lessee McLaughlin, K
13 BRAVAZO (L) '15 C 126 Contreras, L Calumet Farm Lukas, D
14 MENDELSSOHN (L) '15 C 126 Moore, R Smith, Derrick, Magnier, Mrs. John and Tabor, Michael B.O'Brien, A
15 INSTILLED REGARD (L) '15 C 126 Van Dyke, D OXO Equine LLC Hollendorfer, J
16 MAGNUM MOON (L) '15 C 126 Saez, L Low, Lawana L. and Robert E. Pletcher, T
17 SOLOMINI (L) '15 C 126 Prat, F Zayat Stables, LLC, Magnier, Mrs. John, Tabor, Michael
B. and Smith, Derrick Baffert, B
18 VINO ROSSO (L) '15 C 126 Velazquez, J St. Elias Stable and Repole Stable Pletcher, T
19 NOBLE INDY (L) '15 C 126 Geroux, F WinStar Farm LLC and Repole Stable Pletcher, T
20 COMBATANT (L) '15 C 126 Santana, Jr., R Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC and Willis Horton Racing
LLC Asmussen, S
--Also Eligibles--
21 BLENDED CITIZEN (L) '15 C 126 Frey, K Hall, Greg and SAYJAY Racing, LLC O'Neill, D

Click on Promises Fulfilled for Derby PP's: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatc ... ummary.htm

Saturday entries at Churchill Downs: https://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHor ... -20180505D


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PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2018 7:52 pm 
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What an exciting time of year!
I expect either a Barbaro-type win by Justify, or maybe a huge long shot, like maybe Baffert's other horse, Solomini (despite the 17 post) or Enticed?

{or maybe even Instilled Regard ... please!?}

30-1 on Noble Indy would be generous. Good field this year, in my opinion.

Hope they get nice weather in Louisville for the big weekend.


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PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2018 9:31 am 
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Joined: Sat Jan 01, 2005 3:59 pm
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Location: Idaho
A few months ago I had a dream that it was a 17-4 Derby finish. I can see Flamaway running 2nd, but not too sure about Solomini winning it all. I might have to lay a small Exacta bet on 17-4 just to ease my mind.

Regards,
Shergar


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PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2018 6:24 pm 
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Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 3:13 pm
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Location: Maple Valley, Washington
This is an interesting article on the Derby contenders:

http://www.drf.com/news/average-winning ... -longshots

Reading the article, I see Hofburg being more and more viable to be the KD winner.


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PostPosted: Thu May 03, 2018 7:48 am 
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I am betting Hofburg across the board and hoping that a contested pace takes something out of the obvious favorites. In only his third race, Hofburg was within a couple of lengths of Audible. Hofburg should improve in his third race off a layoff. His late running style and pedigree should allow Hofburg to improve his position down the stretch, where I hope he can sneak up on an ongoing Battle Royale among Justify, Bolt D'Oro, Mendelssohn and Audible, kind of like Cloud Computing snuck up on Always Dreaming and Classic Empire in the Preakness last year.


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PostPosted: Thu May 03, 2018 5:24 pm 
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Good Magic
Audible
Bolt d’Oro
Vino Rosso

Good Magic - I expect that Brown has him rounding into top form again. He's training awesome, he looks awesome. He needs to have a quick pace (likely) and to get the jump on the others.
Audible - Incredibly adaptable, and finishes his races from anywhere. The knocks I have are his pedigree, and I don't typically trust Pletcher horses in the Derby.
Bolt d’Oro - he runs his race every.single.time. Hasn't been winning, and I am not sure if he's up for a win, but I think he will be in the mix. Wow, is he ever a stunning horse.
Vino Rosso - not the fastest, more of a grinder. Proved in his last he doesn't back down in a tough situation. I think he has been training excellent. Possibly my Belmont horse.

Not too sure if I am crazy for leaving Hofburg out, but I think he will have something to say in the summer/fall. Love the horse, but this seems like a big ask for him.

I am crazy (maybe) for leaving Justify out, but I am willing to get beat by him.


Last edited by Cree on Sat May 05, 2018 8:53 am, edited 2 times in total.

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PostPosted: Thu May 03, 2018 11:03 pm 
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I am anxiously awating TJ’s prognostication on this year’s Derby (his wisdom/experience are evident.)

One thing I’ve concluded from analyzing this year’s entrants and recent results is that the game has clearly changed over the past ten years.
Gone are the days when pedigree and conditioning were the principal factors in handicapping.
Now, it is “talent” or running style coupled with brilliance and handling by intuitive conditioners.

Look at the PPs of Baffert’s most recent phenoms:
American Pharoah
Arrogate
West Coast
Justify

Clearly, Bob has "figured it out" in terms of how to manage a talented 3YO.

It used to be that stamina breeding played a significant role in triple crown success.
Now, the opposite appears to be true. If you are inclined to put some trust in data or statistics, please consider this:
Looking at Kentucky Derby starters since 2000, there have been 26 runners with average winning distance for Dam Sires under 6.5 furlongs, of which 5 have won (19%), including the last three.
In comparison, there were 316 starters with avg winning distance (Dam Sire) longer than 6.5 furlongs, of which 13 won (4%). That's quite a difference in win percentage.

If you take the analysis a step further and consider Stallion dosage, a la Roman, those with dosage >= 3.4 accounted for 4 wins (of 8 starters, 50% W%), and 5 of the 13 winners with longer Dam Sire AWD (6.5% W%). Dr Roman preferred runners with dosage under 4.0, but my analysis suggests those with dosage figures above 3.3 have been doing best.
In conclusion, I'd argue that the data for recent years suggests stamina breeding is no longer a positive, but a negative, factor in handicapping the Kentucky Derby.
Audible is the only entrant this year with speed-based breeding on both the Dam Sire and Stallion sides.

Stamina influenced runners do run 2nd at long odds sometimes, though, so maybe that is the way to go in Exactas ...


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PostPosted: Fri May 04, 2018 5:00 am 
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Aug27 wrote:
I am anxiously awating TJ’s prognostication on this year’s Derby (his wisdom/experience are evident.)

Hi Aug,
Thanks for that....but if you saw my bank account you'd be wise not to follow me:>) That being said...seems the early weather forecast shifted as of today (Oaks Day) was supposed to be a stronger chance of rain and Derby Day was less likely...now it looks like rain is very probable tomorrow (Saturday). I'll wait till tomorrow and see how bad (if at all) the track is before posting my opinion. Currently I will probably go with Justify even though he has two strong strikes against him (Apollo and the Storm Cat line). Strangely enough 40% of top contenders in the field come by way of the Apollo/Storm Cat line (more than ever before)...included besides Justify is Audible, Mendelssohn, Flameaway, My Boy Jack, Promises Fulfilled, Combatant and also add Magnum Moon who carries the Apollo Curse although he's safe with his sire line to Bold Ruler. This Derby was a "head scratcher" before all these negatives against solid runners, now add a possible off track and it could ruin the entire event. But, one day at a time...so here's the current changes and weather forecast for today's Oaks racing program. TJ
https://www.churchilldowns.com/racing-w ... am-changes


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PostPosted: Fri May 04, 2018 6:41 am 
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Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:35 pm
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While it is still early to post on the Derby, I believe the Oaks/Derby double is usually a good bet, with that said, this year I will play the 7,10 and 14 in the Oaks with the 7,14 in the Derby. A 7-7 play is very live, in my opinion, as well as a 14/14 play. So many things can happen in each race, I would not bet the farm on the outcome, however, I do think the Derby will be decided by Justify and/or Mendelssohn. Hope all of them have a safe and uneventful trip. I have said it here before, but with his demonstrated ability to travel, and his connections, it is Mendelssohn's Derby.

There are many story lines with this Derby, my favorite is, to my knowledge, A.P. Indy is the only top selling Keeneland yearling to earn more than his purchase price, with a win tomorrow, Mendelssohn will be the 2nd to accomplish this feat.

Good luck to all.

DDT


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PostPosted: Fri May 04, 2018 7:24 am 
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Aug27 wrote:
I am anxiously awating TJ’s prognostication on this year’s Derby (his wisdom/experience are evident.)

One thing I’ve concluded from analyzing this year’s entrants and recent results is that the game has clearly changed over the past ten years.
Gone are the days when pedigree and conditioning were the principal factors in handicapping.
Now, it is “talent” or running style coupled with brilliance and handling by intuitive conditioners.

Look at the PPs of Baffert’s most recent phenoms:
American Pharoah
Arrogate
West Coast
Justify

Clearly, Bob has "figured it out" in terms of how to manage a talented 3YO.

It used to be that stamina breeding played a significant role in triple crown success.
Now, the opposite appears to be true. If you are inclined to put some trust in data or statistics, please consider this:
Looking at Kentucky Derby starters since 2000, there have been 26 runners with average winning distance for Dam Sires under 6.5 furlongs, of which 5 have won (19%), including the last three.
In comparison, there were 316 starters with avg winning distance (Dam Sire) longer than 6.5 furlongs, of which 13 won (4%). That's quite a difference in win percentage.


Stamina influenced runners do run 2nd at long odds sometimes, though, so maybe that is the way to go in Exactas ...


I wonder if stamina breds are simply not trained hard enough or run frequently enough to develop that true stamina capability, so the sprinter types can simply carry their speed far enough (high cruising speed), as no one will come at them late anyway.

jm

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PostPosted: Fri May 04, 2018 7:31 am 
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Am leaning toward Audible on top of

BoltdOro/My Boy Jack,
Lone Sailor/Vino Rosso

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PostPosted: Fri May 04, 2018 8:28 am 
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Is it possible for us all to post all of our picks for the stakes at Churchill? I always enjoy that. :-)


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PostPosted: Fri May 04, 2018 11:07 am 
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Cree wrote:
Is it possible for us all to post all of our picks for the stakes at Churchill? I always enjoy that. :-)

Hi Cree,
I joined you on the Oaks thread with the Stakes picks...just got lucky in the turf sprint:>) We'll do the same for all tomorrow's stakes too. TJ


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PostPosted: Fri May 04, 2018 7:38 pm 
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With an off track likely for this years Derby, the morning line odds for My Boy Jack went from 30-1 to 5-1. He is now tied with Mendelssohn who currently is 5-1. Justify is still favored at 7/2. Audible is 6-1, Good Magic 8-1 and Bolt d'Oro 9-1...all the rest are double digit odds. TJ


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PostPosted: Sat May 05, 2018 8:24 am 
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Location: Peoria, Illinois
My Boy Jack is firmly atop my NO CHANCE list


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