The Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

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Re: The Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

Postby TJ » Mon May 28, 2018 9:07 am

Romans said after the work he is leaning toward running Free Drop Billy in the Belmont Stakes...but added his final decision will come a day or two after today's work contingent upon how he comes out of the work.
Baffert's other prospect, Restoring Hope...who is also in training at CD will breeze tomorrow (Tues.) toward his possible start in the Belmont Stakes. He failed to mention when and if Justify would work? Maybe that solid gallop today was enough to take the edge off? TJ

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Re: The Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

Postby TJ » Mon May 28, 2018 1:43 pm

Monday 5/28:
Justify gallops at CD: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... HHMXlMBURs
Free Drop Billy puts in a super work at CD: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXldVbqNGeQ

PS: Good chance both Justify and Restoring Hope will breeze tomorrow morning 5/29. No word if they will go in company or not? TJ

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Re: The Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

Postby TJ » Tue May 29, 2018 5:01 am

Tuesday 5/29: The video coverage of the horses training at CD toward the Belmont Stakes seems to revolve around Justify...no video coverage of Restoring Hope's drill. They showed Bravazo coming off the track and that was about it. I'm sure Free Drop Billy walked today...will try to find out more about the other contenders. Did note a couple Baffert horses on the work tab who like Justify also went a 1/2...Solomini in 48 flat and Rayya 47.4. TJ
Justify, with Martin Garcia on board worked a 1/2 with little urging in 46.4. Fractions were 23.3, 35.1, 46.4 and galloped out 5/8ths in 59.3.
Restoring Hope, worked 7/8's in 1:26. Got his first 5/8ths in 1:01.4 and galloped out a mile in 1:40.1

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Re: The Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

Postby TJ » Tue May 29, 2018 7:56 am

Audible has now been taken out of training and sent to Kentucky for a complete physical exam. Article on DRF, so can't post. TJ

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Re: The Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

Postby TJ » Tue May 29, 2018 1:40 pm

This morning Free Drop Billy was confirmed as a starter in the 150th Belmont Stakes. TJ

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Re: The Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

Postby Cree » Tue May 29, 2018 7:01 pm

Free Drop Billy looked good in that work, but until he wins a race, I will continue to just let him beat me!!!

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Re: The Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

Postby TJ » Wed May 30, 2018 5:00 am

Wednesday 5/30: With Justify walking the shed-row after yesterday's breeze we got to see Ten Fold, Bravazo and Free Drop Billy during the Belmont Stakes training window. While the camera showed the horses on the track the commentators had little to say as far as what they did on the track this morning (jogged, galloped or both?). Ten Fold looked best today with a solid gallop. Bravazo was only shown jogging the wrong way, don't know if he galloped after that? Free Drop Billy was shown jogging the wrong way, acting a bit rank but it was his first day back to the track after the breeze...again don't know if he galloped since he wasn't shown after the jog. TJ

**UPDATE: Bravazo galloped 2 miles the wrong way this AM. He is expected to breeze tomorrow (Thursday 5/30) during the 7:30-7:40 window for the Belmont Stakes probables...provided the weather cooperates. If it looks threatening he will breeze very early...5:30 according to Lukas.
Ten Fold will continue to train up to an expected 5/8ths work this Saturday 6/2.

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Re: The Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

Postby Aug27 » Wed May 30, 2018 8:15 pm

In looking back at my Preakness past performances, I think it is notable that Justify showed the lowest Sire Mud win pct. in the field.
What if his Derby and Preakness performances were not aided by the track conditions, but rather hindered?!
Even though his speed figures appear to be dropping off, I suspect his running style and a fast track may allow him to run the most impressive Belmont.
For now, I am considering Tenfold underneath in my Justify-led exotics ... His pedigree and on-going maturity "as we speak" could lead to a breakout performance on the big day.

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Re: The Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

Postby TJ » Thu May 31, 2018 5:04 am

Thursday 5/31:
Bravazo breezed a mile today at CD. He went in 38.1, 50.3, 1:03.2, 1:16.3, 1:30, 1:42.3 and galloped out 1 1/8th miles in 1:58.
Ten Fold galloped for his upcoming breeze Saturday.
Free Drop Billy also galloped, did seem to get a bit hot?
Justify jogged the wrong way after his walk day yesterday.

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Re: The Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

Postby TJ » Thu May 31, 2018 9:34 am

Aug27 wrote:In looking back at my Preakness past performances, I think it is notable that Justify showed the lowest Sire Mud win pct. in the field.
What if his Derby and Preakness performances were not aided by the track conditions, but rather hindered?!
Even though his speed figures appear to be dropping off, I suspect his running style and a fast track may allow him to run the most impressive Belmont.
For now, I am considering Tenfold underneath in my Justify-led exotics ... His pedigree and on-going maturity "as we speak" could lead to a breakout performance on the big day.

Hi Aug,
The off track question was brought up to Jimmy Barnes (Baffert's assistant) by reporters when Justify made his initial return to the track (5/25) after winning the Preakness Stakes. Here's what he had to say about that. (starts at 1:12 seconds into the video) TJ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIhzxdte2vc

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Re: The Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

Postby TJ » Fri Jun 01, 2018 4:56 am

Friday 6/1:
Bravazo...gets a well deserved day off today after working a mile yesterday.
Ten Fold...was full of himself while galloping strongly over today's wet but drying out track. He looked very good.
Justify...schooled at the gate, stood in with the doors closed and backed out. Then went off on a short but restrained gallop, looked strong while he wanted more buck jumping along the way.
Free Drop Billy...had a useful gallop picking up the pace along the way, but once again did get a bit hot with a visible lather around his neck.
Restoring Hope...I assume he galloped, but there has been no coverage of his morning training.

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Re: The Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

Postby TJ » Fri Jun 01, 2018 9:42 am

Seahenge, another son of Scat Daddy with top connections has just been added to the Belmont Stakes list of possibles? Guess he has every right to run considering he finished in front of Restoring Hope in the Pat Day mile. What's good for the goose is good for the gander...probably the wrong reference but you know what I mean:>) Probables/possibles/confirmed starters and jockeys have been updated on page 1. TJ

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Re: The Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

Postby Georgerz » Fri Jun 01, 2018 11:02 am

I saw yesterday Seahenge mentioned as a possible in the Horse Racing Nation website.

I wish and hope that Justify wins the Belmont Stakes. He looks great, so far. If not, my choice would be Hofburg. He is being training really well at Saratoga.

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Re: The Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

Postby TJ » Fri Jun 01, 2018 12:11 pm

Georgerz wrote:I saw yesterday Seahenge mentioned as a possible in the Horse Racing Nation website.

I wish and hope that Justify wins the Belmont Stakes. He looks great, so far. If not, my choice would be Hofburg. He is being training really well at Saratoga.

Hi George,
It would be interesting to see Seahenge show up in the Belmont Stakes. He ran pretty well in the Pat Day Mile considering the track condition. Though he was whipped thoroughly by Mendelssohn in the UAE Derby he certainly could improve going a mile and a half. Billy Mott does have to save face after going against his conservative nature and running Hofburg in the Derby...so a win in the Belmont Stakes would do the trick.
Looking forward to Tuesday June 5th which is the close of entries for Saturday June 9th, can't wait to see who will show up and if there will be anyone we haven't heard about. TJ

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Re: The Belmont Stakes Probables/Possibles

Postby TJ » Sat Jun 02, 2018 4:51 am

Saturday 6/2
Ten Fold...worked 5/8ths in 1:01.3 well within himself. Looked to be a bit anxious breaking off but the rider got him to settle nicely and finish strong...he went in fractions of 12.3, 25.1, 37.1, 49.2, 1:01.3, and galloped out 7/8ths in 1:28.4
Justify...looked good again in his gallop...he is feeling pretty good throwing in a little buck jump along the way once again:>)
Bravazo...he was shown entering the track, I assume he jogged but that's a guess?
Free Drop Billy and Restoring Hope...were not shown during the Belmont Stakes training window.