This is our first horse with my partner. I was hoping to get an opinion of people on the board to find out what was good from a conformation & what is weak on the horse. Any advice would be greatly appreciated. This horse is by Gotham City out of the Half Term mare "Cocoon of Summer".
Thanks in advance.
- Andrew
http://www.geocities.com/aagoett/horse[url][/url]
How does this horse look?
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Inbreeding to ND daughters
Thought this article may be of interest to you. There has been some success in Argentina with the Halo bloodlines.
Negative Nick #1 - daughters of Northern Dancer
Copyright © 2005 Leo Tsatsaronis
The concept of a Nick is where one sireline shows an affinity with another sireline. A Negative Nick is where one sireline shows a reverse affinity with another sireline and consistently produces slow runners, even though each of the sirelines are successful on their own. Knowing which sirelines cancel each other out is powerful knowledge that breeders & owners can use to avoid breeding or buying slow horses.
Inbreeding to Northern Dancer has an astonishing success rate with well over 250 G1SWs (Group/Grade 1 Stakes Winners) worldwide in the major racing regions. Some may argue that this is due to the sheer weight of numbers of horses that have a Northern Dancer strain in their pedigree. That Northern Dancer is present in ever-increasing numbers in worldwide pedigrees is without argument but to put the magnitude of his G1SW count in perspective, we can look at the number of G1SWs other giants of the breed are achieving. TA quick search using the G1 Goldmine database shows the following counts and whilst the numbers below change every day on a worldwide basis but the relativity between sirelines doesn't change much.
G1SWs inbred to a sire in the past 10 years (major regions)
(major regions are USA,CAN,AUS,NZ,UK,IRE,FRA,GER,ITL)
Northern Dancer 258
Bold Ruler 79
Secretariat 3
Mr Prospector 17
Raise A Native 60 (including those inbred to Mr P!)
Turn-To 75
Star Kingdom 23
Some may still argue opportunity has skewed the results, some may argue regional gene pools have skewed the results, some may point to the big books being bred to Danzig/Danehill-line stallions skewing the results, but the fact is still that inbreeding to Northern Dancer has exceeded the next best by a factor of almost 4.
Where it gets very interesting is looking at the sex-strain inbreeding patterns within those 258 G1SWs. Here is the breakdown by sex strains
Total 258 G1SWs
Son x Son 209
Son x Daughter 31
Daughter x Son 17
Daughter x Daughter 1
What this is saying is that inbreeding to Northern Dancer through 2 sons top and bottom has produced 80% of the G1SWs. A further 19% are produced by having sex-balanced inbreeding (son/daughter, daughter/son). The remarkable figure is the last one which shows that there has been only 1 G1SW inbred to daughters of Northern Dancer (SHIVA). Only 1.
Inbreeding to daughters of Northern Dancer is a Negative Nick – (and should be avoided)
The other remarkable statistic is that apart from the solitary G1, there is only one more GSW in the entire G1 Goldmine database (FRENCH BRAIDS G2), so in the past 10 years, inbreeding to Northern Dancer has produced over 830 GSWs (G1, G2 & G3) but only 2 are inbred through 2 daughters.
So how can breeders harness this knowledge ? If your mare has a daughter of Northern Dancer in her pedigree, carefully analyze the pedigree of the sire you are considering and try and avoid breeding a foal with a Negative Nick.
Always remember "Dig for gold where gold has already been found"
Leo Tsatsaronis
Postscript : In Argentina, there are currently 4 G1 winners that are inbred to daughters of Northern Dancer and all 4 have Southern Halo as one of the daughter strains so this is a pattern that has worked in that country.
Negative Nick #1 - daughters of Northern Dancer
Copyright © 2005 Leo Tsatsaronis
The concept of a Nick is where one sireline shows an affinity with another sireline. A Negative Nick is where one sireline shows a reverse affinity with another sireline and consistently produces slow runners, even though each of the sirelines are successful on their own. Knowing which sirelines cancel each other out is powerful knowledge that breeders & owners can use to avoid breeding or buying slow horses.
Inbreeding to Northern Dancer has an astonishing success rate with well over 250 G1SWs (Group/Grade 1 Stakes Winners) worldwide in the major racing regions. Some may argue that this is due to the sheer weight of numbers of horses that have a Northern Dancer strain in their pedigree. That Northern Dancer is present in ever-increasing numbers in worldwide pedigrees is without argument but to put the magnitude of his G1SW count in perspective, we can look at the number of G1SWs other giants of the breed are achieving. TA quick search using the G1 Goldmine database shows the following counts and whilst the numbers below change every day on a worldwide basis but the relativity between sirelines doesn't change much.
G1SWs inbred to a sire in the past 10 years (major regions)
(major regions are USA,CAN,AUS,NZ,UK,IRE,FRA,GER,ITL)
Northern Dancer 258
Bold Ruler 79
Secretariat 3
Mr Prospector 17
Raise A Native 60 (including those inbred to Mr P!)
Turn-To 75
Star Kingdom 23
Some may still argue opportunity has skewed the results, some may argue regional gene pools have skewed the results, some may point to the big books being bred to Danzig/Danehill-line stallions skewing the results, but the fact is still that inbreeding to Northern Dancer has exceeded the next best by a factor of almost 4.
Where it gets very interesting is looking at the sex-strain inbreeding patterns within those 258 G1SWs. Here is the breakdown by sex strains
Total 258 G1SWs
Son x Son 209
Son x Daughter 31
Daughter x Son 17
Daughter x Daughter 1
What this is saying is that inbreeding to Northern Dancer through 2 sons top and bottom has produced 80% of the G1SWs. A further 19% are produced by having sex-balanced inbreeding (son/daughter, daughter/son). The remarkable figure is the last one which shows that there has been only 1 G1SW inbred to daughters of Northern Dancer (SHIVA). Only 1.
Inbreeding to daughters of Northern Dancer is a Negative Nick – (and should be avoided)
The other remarkable statistic is that apart from the solitary G1, there is only one more GSW in the entire G1 Goldmine database (FRENCH BRAIDS G2), so in the past 10 years, inbreeding to Northern Dancer has produced over 830 GSWs (G1, G2 & G3) but only 2 are inbred through 2 daughters.
So how can breeders harness this knowledge ? If your mare has a daughter of Northern Dancer in her pedigree, carefully analyze the pedigree of the sire you are considering and try and avoid breeding a foal with a Negative Nick.
Always remember "Dig for gold where gold has already been found"
Leo Tsatsaronis
Postscript : In Argentina, there are currently 4 G1 winners that are inbred to daughters of Northern Dancer and all 4 have Southern Halo as one of the daughter strains so this is a pattern that has worked in that country.
Well he is just a yearling, so judging his conformation at this stage of development is tricky, especially without conformation photos. In the picture you provided, he looks "downhill" in that the top point of his rump is quite a bit higher than his withers. But he will grow and change quite a bit over the next couple of years.
So Run for the Roses, as fast as you can.....
Its not a good photo to judge by. He's not really standing square it looks. Its looks as though he has a fair amount of bone to him, his pasterns aren't too long. It could just be how he is standing or the photo but it looks like he might toe out a bit. He is downhill but he looks like he is in a funny growth stage.
With a bit more muscle and growth he should develop a better looking neck.
With a bit more muscle and growth he should develop a better looking neck.
ND line-breeding
hpkingjr
Did your research on Nothern Dancer lone-breeding indicate which ND sone produced the most gradeed stakes winners> Or which ND sons produced the best nick when used togethere.
For example is Danzig X Danzig or Danzig X Dixieland Band or El gran Senior X Dixieland Band the best nick?
griff
Did your research on Nothern Dancer lone-breeding indicate which ND sone produced the most gradeed stakes winners> Or which ND sons produced the best nick when used togethere.
For example is Danzig X Danzig or Danzig X Dixieland Band or El gran Senior X Dixieland Band the best nick?
griff
"We has met the enemy and he is us" [Pogo]
ND Inbreeding
I ran some inbreeding situations with some of his descendants and inbreeding Danzig results in a 4 fold DECREASE in the expected stakes horses. So far none have exceeded the average. The closest has been Dixieland Band and Danzig. Please ask me for a particular combo and I'll check for you.
Thanks hpkingjr
Your post caught my eye as I bred a 2006 colt that is 4S X 4D to ND with El Gran Senior on top & Dixieland Band on bottom. The colt is in this data base as HotStuff Pending [Civilisation X Hot Concern].
HotStuff Pending is also 3S X 4D to Mr P. but my mian draw to the HotStuff Pending sire is he is out of Toussaud.
griff
Your post caught my eye as I bred a 2006 colt that is 4S X 4D to ND with El Gran Senior on top & Dixieland Band on bottom. The colt is in this data base as HotStuff Pending [Civilisation X Hot Concern].
HotStuff Pending is also 3S X 4D to Mr P. but my mian draw to the HotStuff Pending sire is he is out of Toussaud.
griff
"We has met the enemy and he is us" [Pogo]
Dixieland Band X El Gran Senor
Griff:
You may be fairly astute. Although there are no Grade 1 winners in the data base, LimeHouse and Vicarage jumped off the page. Your foal and LimeHouse have much in common from a pedigree standpoint. (MrP and ND inbreeding) The VGS (Ventura Geo Score) (and Michael can explain much better than anyone) has a VGS of 4.28 for Grade 2's and 3's or 4 times the expected numbers. I would be optimistic about the foal.
You may be fairly astute. Although there are no Grade 1 winners in the data base, LimeHouse and Vicarage jumped off the page. Your foal and LimeHouse have much in common from a pedigree standpoint. (MrP and ND inbreeding) The VGS (Ventura Geo Score) (and Michael can explain much better than anyone) has a VGS of 4.28 for Grade 2's and 3's or 4 times the expected numbers. I would be optimistic about the foal.
Thanks again hpkingjr
Please take a look at Emancipated Woman's VGS and let me know what you think.
She only has one cross to ND through Danzig but has a 3S X 4D to Mr. P, a 4S X 5D to Tom Rolf and a 5D X 5D to Hail To Reason. She has an A++ WERK and is WVBRED.
Also, I don't know if this means anything but there are $6.6 million in winnings in her first two generations.
griff
Please take a look at Emancipated Woman's VGS and let me know what you think.
She only has one cross to ND through Danzig but has a 3S X 4D to Mr. P, a 4S X 5D to Tom Rolf and a 5D X 5D to Hail To Reason. She has an A++ WERK and is WVBRED.
Also, I don't know if this means anything but there are $6.6 million in winnings in her first two generations.
griff
"We has met the enemy and he is us" [Pogo]
Emancipated Woman
I ran some of the combos in her pedigree. Northern Dancer with Mr. P gives a 1.55 VGS or 1 and 1/2 times the expected Grade 1 winners. Mr. P with Tom Rolf is 1.35 and Mr. P with Hail To Reason is 1.36 so they have achieved about 1 and 1/3 times the expected Gr. 1 winners. What I do not know is whether you can extrapolate the results for general stakes winners. All of the combo's are positive so I would be optimistic about her as well.
When you speak of a VGS of 1.55 with Mr. P and ND it is my understanding (and correct me Michael if I am wrong) that if those stallions averaged 2% Grade 1 winners you would expect a 3% chance with your foal. Obviously if the numbers can be extrapolated then the 15% stakes winners overall become 22.5% stakes winners. I would see no reason why you could not extrapolate those numbers
When you speak of a VGS of 1.55 with Mr. P and ND it is my understanding (and correct me Michael if I am wrong) that if those stallions averaged 2% Grade 1 winners you would expect a 3% chance with your foal. Obviously if the numbers can be extrapolated then the 15% stakes winners overall become 22.5% stakes winners. I would see no reason why you could not extrapolate those numbers
Emancipated Woman
I ran some of the combos in her pedigree. Northern Dancer with Mr. P gives a 1.55 VGS or 1 and 1/2 times the expected Grade 1 winners. Mr. P with Tom Rolf is 1.35 and Mr. P with Hail To Reason is 1.36 so they have achieved about 1 and 1/3 times the expected Gr. 1 winners. What I do not know is whether you can extrapolate the results for general stakes winners. All of the combo's are positive so I would be optimistic about her as well.
When you speak of a VGS of 1.55 with Mr. P and ND it is my understanding (and correct me Michael if I am wrong) that if those stallions averaged 2% Grade 1 winners you would expect a 3% chance with your foal. Obviously if the numbers can be extrapolated then the 15% stakes winners overall become 22.5% stakes winners. I would see no reason why you could not extrapolate those numbers
When you speak of a VGS of 1.55 with Mr. P and ND it is my understanding (and correct me Michael if I am wrong) that if those stallions averaged 2% Grade 1 winners you would expect a 3% chance with your foal. Obviously if the numbers can be extrapolated then the 15% stakes winners overall become 22.5% stakes winners. I would see no reason why you could not extrapolate those numbers