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Pedigree vs. Race Record

Posted: Mon Jun 16, 2008 3:33 pm
by ginger1307
Hi there...I have a Mr. P line mare that ran out over $165k+ earned the hard way...She made 79 starts and is very physically correct...Not any blacktype under her 1st dam, but major regional blacktype under her 2nd dam..
Question being :arrow: Since this is a proven sound individual, do you give her a chance with a nicer KY stallion or do you breed for a regional market like LA ? What price range would you suggest to start looking at next year for her? Breed to sell but would keep for myself if foal proved to be non-commercial.. thanks :) ginger

Posted: Mon Jun 16, 2008 4:06 pm
by kimberley mine
I think the answer is it depends on the mare.

Did she earn the $165k in, say, a state-bred program like New York, where she would get to run through her NY-bred conditions and then go back to NW1x-other than maiden, claiming, or state bred? Or did she, say, run in high-level AOCs at Hollywood Park and Santa Anita? Or was she picking up regular checks at River Downs?

Did her siblings run? Look up "Daughter of Wolf" in the database as an example...this mare has only one foal with black type, a placing in a regional stakes, but her foals have well over a million dollars in combined progeny earnings. Having her siblings all be successful racehorses makes a big difference in terms of value over her being the only successful racer.

Her sire is Mr P line, but what about the rest of her pedigree? Is her female family obscurely bred? Is her dam's sire known as a huge flop, or conversely as a much better broodmare sire than sire (e.g. Wavering Monarch or Tunerup)?

Posted: Mon Jun 16, 2008 4:18 pm
by kimberley mine
A couple more things you may want to consider...

Is her dam still producing, and if so, how old is she? If your mare is a first foal and (for argument's sake) a 5yo, then there's the possibility that she'll get blacktype on her page. If your mare's dam is older, that possibility decreases.

Does your mare have any sisters who are producing? Are they producing well? Is your mare likely to get black type on her page from her sisters?

What stallions have your mare's dam and/or sisters been bred to? If your mare's dam has a suckling, yearling, and 2yo by Pulpit, Seeking the Gold, and Street Cry, the chance that she'll have a classy runner (and forthcoming black type and KY commercial value) is much greater than if she has a suckling, yearling, and 2yo by Rare Brick, Aggie Southpaw, and Dance Master.

Pedigree vs Race Record

Posted: Mon Jun 16, 2008 5:20 pm
by ginger1307
Thanks Kim for answering...She was an allowance winner at Philadelphia Park as well as Delaware Park..Ran for a tag $16-18k at Aqueduct and Belmont Park...Her 1st dam is by Arctic Tern and 2nd dam by Sir Ivor..Will research her sisters to see what studs are being used there...Thanks for the input..... :D ginger

Posted: Mon Jun 16, 2008 6:09 pm
by kimberley mine
You're welcome. I'm guessing this is Bella Savella. Fantastic breeding on her female side...and then the Gold Fever was kind of a "huh?"

Her immediate female family is just a little bit weak for what seems to be selling in KY these days. If she were an absolute physical knockout whose foals were knockouts and you had her to a hot sire, her foals would probably sell fine...but otherwise, it's hit or miss. She's not going to get any more help from her dam, and she only has two sisters who are old enough to be producing racing age foals.

Was she ever raced beyond a mile? Her female side just screams long hauls on the lawn. Not something common at Philly Park.

I think this mare would get more attention in a regional market that has a good turf program. New York, perhaps, or the mid-Atlantic.

In terms of breeding, I think she needs some Sadlers Wells. Look at Artie Schiller's pedigree. On paper I like Perfect Soul a LOT, but commercially he's dead. She's an interesting cross with Horse Chestnut, but he's not very commercial either.

Posted: Mon Jun 16, 2008 6:57 pm
by Rick
If it is Bella Savella, then I agree Sadlers Wells line stallions. Another way to go would be to add some Nuryev like Mingun. I would stay away from anymore Raise a Native.

Pedigree vs Race Record

Posted: Mon Jun 16, 2008 7:00 pm
by ginger1307
Boy, you are good...It is indeed Bella Savella...A pretty little mare so will need something with some size...She is sound as a dollar though...I am looking forward to finding just the right stud for her..thanks for you thoughts.......ginger

Posted: Wed Jun 18, 2008 9:32 am
by Monmouth Matt
Good luck with her! I have mucho respect for those mares who were solid hard hitters like her. In the never ending debate of "race record" vs. pedigree, I fall out on the race record side. I realize there are plenty of exceptions to both, but give me a mare that was sound enough to keep getting to the track along with some will to fight and win, and I'll take my chances vs. the unraced or non-winning pretty pedigree. I believe in the stats that Joseph Estes compiled on the subject: http://www.thoroughbredreview.com/Estes.htm.

I think she would fit very nicely into the NY or Pa. programs. I love the fact that they give you dirt/grass...long/short in their programs and grass preference in Pa. on the grass (always get in vs. out of state breds))....huge key for a possible grass horse.

Posted: Wed Jun 18, 2008 9:35 am
by Monmouth Matt
Maybe this link will work better:

http://www.thoroughbredreview.com/index.htm

Horses to consider

Posted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 6:25 pm
by Keith
Horses to consider

Saarland by Unbridled-Versailles Treaty by Danzig

4x4 Mr. Prospector
3x4 Arabian Dancer
5x6 Almahmoud
6x6 Aspidistra

Out Of Place by Cox's Ridge-Arabian Dancer by Damascus

2x4 Arabian Dancer

Bellamy Road by Concerto-Hurry Home Hillary by Deputed Testamony

4x5 Arabian Dancer
6x6 Traffic Court
4x5 Mr. Prospector

Southern Image by Halo's Image-Pleasant Dixie by Dixieland Band

5x5x6 Almahmoud
4x5 Sir Ivor

Keith

Posted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 8:53 am
by Bill from WA
I like Artie Schiller with her. Nicely balanced conduit profile. It does introduce another line to Raise A Native but all connections are in the 5th remove. There would be inbreeding to Majestic Light, but that tactic has produced Mon Cabo (92-7-11-10) and Torch The Halls (62-14-6-5) who are both 3x3 to Majestic Light. I have clients who have Artie Schiller babies, and they are thrilled with them.

Bill

Re: Horses to consider

Posted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 9:07 am
by madelyn
Keith wrote:Horses to consider

Saarland by Unbridled-Versailles Treaty by Danzig

4x4 Mr. Prospector
3x4 Arabian Dancer
5x6 Almahmoud
6x6 Aspidistra

Out Of Place by Cox's Ridge-Arabian Dancer by Damascus

2x4 Arabian Dancer

Bellamy Road by Concerto-Hurry Home Hillary by Deputed Testamony

4x5 Arabian Dancer
6x6 Traffic Court
4x5 Mr. Prospector

Southern Image by Halo's Image-Pleasant Dixie by Dixieland Band

5x5x6 Almahmoud
4x5 Sir Ivor

Keith


Somehow I think Saarland is not an option any longer - is he still at Darby Dan or has he moved on? He had MAJOR fertility issues last year.

Posted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 11:06 pm
by kimberley mine
Her recent family production record has shown some talent with Regal Classic. If a Sadlers Wells line horse isn't in the cards, perhaps one with Regal Classic or Vice Regal?

Posted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 3:43 pm
by Rahy85
Here's something more specific to the topic:

http://www.thoroughbredreview.com/MythoftheFamily.htm

Avalyn Hunter did a similar study that can be found in the 9/16/05 issue of MarketWatch which also gave the edge to performance over pedigree.