Back to Pedigree Query
It is currently Sat Nov 17, 2018 1:33 am

All times are UTC - 8 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 14 posts ] 
Author Message
 Post subject: Pedigree vs. Race Record
PostPosted: Mon Jun 16, 2008 3:33 pm 
Offline
Yearling

Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2007 7:43 am
Posts: 64
Hi there...I have a Mr. P line mare that ran out over $165k+ earned the hard way...She made 79 starts and is very physically correct...Not any blacktype under her 1st dam, but major regional blacktype under her 2nd dam..
Question being :arrow: Since this is a proven sound individual, do you give her a chance with a nicer KY stallion or do you breed for a regional market like LA ? What price range would you suggest to start looking at next year for her? Breed to sell but would keep for myself if foal proved to be non-commercial.. thanks :) ginger


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jun 16, 2008 4:06 pm 
Offline
Breeder's Cup Contender

Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2005 8:43 pm
Posts: 1771
I think the answer is it depends on the mare.

Did she earn the $165k in, say, a state-bred program like New York, where she would get to run through her NY-bred conditions and then go back to NW1x-other than maiden, claiming, or state bred? Or did she, say, run in high-level AOCs at Hollywood Park and Santa Anita? Or was she picking up regular checks at River Downs?

Did her siblings run? Look up "Daughter of Wolf" in the database as an example...this mare has only one foal with black type, a placing in a regional stakes, but her foals have well over a million dollars in combined progeny earnings. Having her siblings all be successful racehorses makes a big difference in terms of value over her being the only successful racer.

Her sire is Mr P line, but what about the rest of her pedigree? Is her female family obscurely bred? Is her dam's sire known as a huge flop, or conversely as a much better broodmare sire than sire (e.g. Wavering Monarch or Tunerup)?


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jun 16, 2008 4:18 pm 
Offline
Breeder's Cup Contender

Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2005 8:43 pm
Posts: 1771
A couple more things you may want to consider...

Is her dam still producing, and if so, how old is she? If your mare is a first foal and (for argument's sake) a 5yo, then there's the possibility that she'll get blacktype on her page. If your mare's dam is older, that possibility decreases.

Does your mare have any sisters who are producing? Are they producing well? Is your mare likely to get black type on her page from her sisters?

What stallions have your mare's dam and/or sisters been bred to? If your mare's dam has a suckling, yearling, and 2yo by Pulpit, Seeking the Gold, and Street Cry, the chance that she'll have a classy runner (and forthcoming black type and KY commercial value) is much greater than if she has a suckling, yearling, and 2yo by Rare Brick, Aggie Southpaw, and Dance Master.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Pedigree vs Race Record
PostPosted: Mon Jun 16, 2008 5:20 pm 
Offline
Yearling

Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2007 7:43 am
Posts: 64
Thanks Kim for answering...She was an allowance winner at Philadelphia Park as well as Delaware Park..Ran for a tag $16-18k at Aqueduct and Belmont Park...Her 1st dam is by Arctic Tern and 2nd dam by Sir Ivor..Will research her sisters to see what studs are being used there...Thanks for the input..... :D ginger


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jun 16, 2008 6:09 pm 
Offline
Breeder's Cup Contender

Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2005 8:43 pm
Posts: 1771
You're welcome. I'm guessing this is Bella Savella. Fantastic breeding on her female side...and then the Gold Fever was kind of a "huh?"

Her immediate female family is just a little bit weak for what seems to be selling in KY these days. If she were an absolute physical knockout whose foals were knockouts and you had her to a hot sire, her foals would probably sell fine...but otherwise, it's hit or miss. She's not going to get any more help from her dam, and she only has two sisters who are old enough to be producing racing age foals.

Was she ever raced beyond a mile? Her female side just screams long hauls on the lawn. Not something common at Philly Park.

I think this mare would get more attention in a regional market that has a good turf program. New York, perhaps, or the mid-Atlantic.

In terms of breeding, I think she needs some Sadlers Wells. Look at Artie Schiller's pedigree. On paper I like Perfect Soul a LOT, but commercially he's dead. She's an interesting cross with Horse Chestnut, but he's not very commercial either.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Jun 16, 2008 6:57 pm 
Offline
Allowance Winner

Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:33 am
Posts: 336
If it is Bella Savella, then I agree Sadlers Wells line stallions. Another way to go would be to add some Nuryev like Mingun. I would stay away from anymore Raise a Native.


Last edited by Rick on Mon Jun 16, 2008 7:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Pedigree vs Race Record
PostPosted: Mon Jun 16, 2008 7:00 pm 
Offline
Yearling

Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2007 7:43 am
Posts: 64
Boy, you are good...It is indeed Bella Savella...A pretty little mare so will need something with some size...She is sound as a dollar though...I am looking forward to finding just the right stud for her..thanks for you thoughts.......ginger


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Jun 18, 2008 9:32 am 
Offline
Allowance Winner

Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2005 12:14 pm
Posts: 253
Location: NJ
Good luck with her! I have mucho respect for those mares who were solid hard hitters like her. In the never ending debate of "race record" vs. pedigree, I fall out on the race record side. I realize there are plenty of exceptions to both, but give me a mare that was sound enough to keep getting to the track along with some will to fight and win, and I'll take my chances vs. the unraced or non-winning pretty pedigree. I believe in the stats that Joseph Estes compiled on the subject: http://www.thoroughbredreview.com/Estes.htm.

I think she would fit very nicely into the NY or Pa. programs. I love the fact that they give you dirt/grass...long/short in their programs and grass preference in Pa. on the grass (always get in vs. out of state breds))....huge key for a possible grass horse.

_________________
And DOWN the stretch they come!


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Jun 18, 2008 9:35 am 
Offline
Allowance Winner

Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2005 12:14 pm
Posts: 253
Location: NJ
Maybe this link will work better:

http://www.thoroughbredreview.com/index.htm

_________________
And DOWN the stretch they come!


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Horses to consider
PostPosted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 6:25 pm 
Offline
Grade III Winner
User avatar

Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 3:45 am
Posts: 1040
Location: Idaho Falls, Idaho
Horses to consider

Saarland by Unbridled-Versailles Treaty by Danzig

4x4 Mr. Prospector
3x4 Arabian Dancer
5x6 Almahmoud
6x6 Aspidistra

Out Of Place by Cox's Ridge-Arabian Dancer by Damascus

2x4 Arabian Dancer

Bellamy Road by Concerto-Hurry Home Hillary by Deputed Testamony

4x5 Arabian Dancer
6x6 Traffic Court
4x5 Mr. Prospector

Southern Image by Halo's Image-Pleasant Dixie by Dixieland Band

5x5x6 Almahmoud
4x5 Sir Ivor

Keith


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 8:53 am 
Offline
Breeder's Cup Contender

Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:20 am
Posts: 1936
Location: Mountlake Terrace, WA
I like Artie Schiller with her. Nicely balanced conduit profile. It does introduce another line to Raise A Native but all connections are in the 5th remove. There would be inbreeding to Majestic Light, but that tactic has produced Mon Cabo (92-7-11-10) and Torch The Halls (62-14-6-5) who are both 3x3 to Majestic Light. I have clients who have Artie Schiller babies, and they are thrilled with them.

Bill

_________________
Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is like a broken winged bird that cannot fly.

Langston Hughes


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Horses to consider
PostPosted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 9:07 am 
Offline
Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2004 1:53 pm
Posts: 9630
Location: Louisville, KY
Keith wrote:
Horses to consider

Saarland by Unbridled-Versailles Treaty by Danzig

4x4 Mr. Prospector
3x4 Arabian Dancer
5x6 Almahmoud
6x6 Aspidistra

Out Of Place by Cox's Ridge-Arabian Dancer by Damascus

2x4 Arabian Dancer

Bellamy Road by Concerto-Hurry Home Hillary by Deputed Testamony

4x5 Arabian Dancer
6x6 Traffic Court
4x5 Mr. Prospector

Southern Image by Halo's Image-Pleasant Dixie by Dixieland Band

5x5x6 Almahmoud
4x5 Sir Ivor

Keith


Somehow I think Saarland is not an option any longer - is he still at Darby Dan or has he moved on? He had MAJOR fertility issues last year.

_________________
So Run for the Roses, as fast as you can.....


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sat Jun 21, 2008 11:06 pm 
Offline
Breeder's Cup Contender

Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2005 8:43 pm
Posts: 1771
Her recent family production record has shown some talent with Regal Classic. If a Sadlers Wells line horse isn't in the cards, perhaps one with Regal Classic or Vice Regal?


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject:
PostPosted: Wed Jul 02, 2008 3:43 pm 
Offline
Maiden Special Weight

Joined: Thu Mar 20, 2008 8:15 pm
Posts: 121
Here's something more specific to the topic:

http://www.thoroughbredreview.com/MythoftheFamily.htm

Avalyn Hunter did a similar study that can be found in the 9/16/05 issue of MarketWatch which also gave the edge to performance over pedigree.


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 14 posts ] 

All times are UTC - 8 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group